Met1985 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I have been watching the progression of this system on the models this week and this system looks like it is getting better organized and looks to be dealing with more moisture each run. Looks like a quick hit of cold and snow for the favored upslope places of the mountains. It will be nice to see snow flying in March despite this crappy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What about some wet snow for central/eastern NC? Can't count it out, the 00z NAM has spoken and verbatim flakes are seen outside of the mountains on the GFS as well. Just going to throw in that low level temps would probably generate rain for the areas but at least at 850 it looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 The GFS and NAM pain a strip from North to south along the coast of North Carolina and still has our upslope event but the moisture does not look that impressive on this run. We are still a few days away from this event and it is getting down to the details now. The coast seeing snow i really am not sure about. It could happen but the surface temps look to warm for this to be anything but rain thats why i think this will be a mountains only event for snow. Just my opinion but feel free to comment about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Well this weekend could be looking very interesting for most of NC. Looks like a possible wet snowstorm on the coast and snow in the mountains and into areas of North Georgia.Looks like the GFS wants to paint a swath of heavy wet snow along the coast with a quick hit of snow. Looking at the sounding the surface temp looks pretty warm for this event but as Jon has pointed out there has been consistency in the models having some snow down east along the costal areas. Something to really keep our eye on. Also for the mountains it looks like we could get a few impulses of energy coming in from the 4th through the 5th. Looks like we could be in for some fun with snow in the the favored upslope regions really cashing in with these impulses. Also even as far south as the Georgia mountains could see snow. There is a lot that could change in the next 24 hours but winter still trying to let people no she is not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Well this weekend could be looking very interesting for most of NC. Looks like a possible wet snowstorm on the coast and snow in the mountains and into areas of North Georgia.Looks like the GFS wants to paint a swath of heavy wet snow along the coast with a quick hit of snow. Looking at the sounding the surface temp looks pretty warm for this event but as Jon has pointed out there has been consistency in the models having some snow down east along the costal areas. Something to really keep our eye on. Also for the mountains it looks like we could get a few impulses of energy coming in from the 4th through the 5th. Looks like we could be in for some fun with snow in the the favored upslope regions really cashing in with these impulses. Also even as far south as the Georgia mountains could see snow. There is a lot that could change in the next 24 hours but winter still trying to let people no she is not done yet. If tonights NAM verifies, you will have synoptic snow tomorrow night. That map is from the wave of low pressure riding up the front. Upslope come in later. Tonights GFS hints at this wave also so this could be a sneaker surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Thanks Moto this could be real fun. Very excited about this possibility of getting some snow after this winter has been such a downer. Keep us updated and if there is something i don't catch or overlook please correct me. But again thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Thanks Moto this could be real fun. Very excited about this possibility of getting some snow after this winter has been such a downer. Keep us updated and if there is something i don't catch or overlook please correct me. But again thanks for the input. The biggest difference between tonights GFS and NAM is that the NAM has a nice synoptic snow event starting tomorrow after dark lasting through the first part of Sunday. Both the GFS and NAM show a clipper type of snow coming in Sunday night lasting into Monday afternoon. So this could be a token 1-2" or so type of event with just the clipper (most likely scenario) or about double that if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Ya i was noticing that there is like two separate systems coming possibly. One from the south and then the clipper giving us a nice NW flow event. Should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Well looking at the GFS looks like almost the whole state of NC could get in on the snow but if you look at the surface temps it tells a diff story. By hour 33 there looks to be a raging snow storm along NC and SC coastal areas points west. I really can't get that excited just yet about this because if you look at the sounding it looks very warm, but i also don't think the models have a clue what is going to really happen with these two systems. As for the mountains and the northern GA mountains looks like we could have a one two shot of snow. First is the gulf low that could bring snow for above areas i just mentioned. This gulf low will play a big part in the weather all along the SE. Second is the clipper system that seems to have a good shot of cold and moisture streaming in behind it. This should really inhance the NW flow moisture streaming across the mountains Sunday night into Monday. The wind will be roaring i think with both these systems. To say the least this could turn out to be a big suprise for a lot of people if this pans out the right way. Hope i have done a good job analyzing things but always welcome everyone else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Well looking at the GFS looks like almost the whole state of NC could get in on the snow but if you look at the surface temps it tells a diff story. By hour 33 there looks to be a raging snow storm along NC and SC coastal areas points west. I really can't get that excited just yet about this because if you look at the sounding it looks very warm, but i also don't think the models have a clue what is going to really happen with these two systems. As for the mountains and the northern GA mountains looks like we could have a one two shot of snow. First is the gulf low that could bring snow for above areas i just mentioned. This gulf low will play a big part in the weather all along the SE. Second is the clipper system that seems to have a good shot of cold and moisture streaming in behind it. This should really inhance the NW flow moisture streaming across the mountains Sunday night into Monday. The wind will be roaring i think with both these systems. To say the least this could turn out to be a big suprise for a lot of people if this pans out the right way. Hope i have done a good job analyzing things but always welcome everyone else! The trend has been to strengthen this wave with each run. It would not take much more for this to be a big deal. The track looks good. Now, if we can amp it up just a bit more, We would all get into the fun. I noticed on the 0z NAM sim radar, a hint of a deformation zone over middle NC. This needs to be watched closely in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 The trend has been to strengthen this wave with each run. It would not take much more for this to be a big deal. The track looks good. Now, if we can amp it up just a bit more, We would all get into the fun. I noticed on the 0z NAM sim radar, a hint of a deformation zone over middle NC. This needs to be watched closely in future runs. Ya i agree the next 12 hours will tell a lot about what could be coming. Also noticed a huge temp drop from about one this morning which was 62 degrees now i am down to 39 degrees. Cold air seems to be filtering in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It would be good for those to the east if this verified but this map just makes me want to puke for MBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Well looks as if the mountains will not see that much accum from this storm system from the south. Though there does seem there my be light snow falling at this time i think the bulk of the moisture will stay to our East. The real chance of getting some good snow will be from this clipper system coming in for tomorrow night into Monday. This looks as if the higher elevations at this time could see several inches of snow. Noaa has put out a statment saying up near Boone could see 1-4 and down along my area could see 1-3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 For the clipper system this thing looks to be packing a punch for the upslope areas of TN/NC. I think this is a great setup with cold rushing in and moisture streaming behind the front to help lift up that much more moisture along the mountains. I think we could be looking at several inches in the higher regions with this system. I don't think that GSP with issue any advisories or watches/warnings untill tomorrow morning. This should be a fun little system especially for the mountains the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 The NAM and the GFS have this clipper system and its moisture in two diff places. First the NAM has the clipper hitting more north so that would really cut down on our snow totals with most areas seeing only a dusting and the higher elevations seeing like 1-2 inches. Second the GFS has the clipper diving farther south so that would bring more moisture over the NC mountains and really bring up the snow totals especially for the higher terrain. There has been no Advisories or watches come out but the a statement put out by GSP seems to be leaning toward an advisory across the TN/NC boarder counties but if it looks like the clipper will drop more south there could be warning come out for the higher terrain prmarily elevations above 3500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 First flakes are flying currently. Winds is really picking up and we are currently in a nice snow shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Met1985, just got back from Cat where light snow was falling. Nothing sticking due to the sun. Flurries over Balsam on my way back into Jackson with snow virga (I know its not that dry, but it looks like the snow squall is hanging above) in Cullowhee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Should rename the thread to clipper system, looks to spill snow eastward off the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Been having intermittent flurries all day long. I see Blacksburg thinks we'll get 2-4"...I find that highly unlikely. I'm thinking 1" totals will be the rule, with maybe a few 2"+ reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seaduck Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Just got back to Asheville from the Cat skiing all day. Started snowing around noon up at the ski area. When we left around 4 it was snowing hard and starting to accumilate. Here at the house it is sunny but we still have a few flurries blowing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Winter weather advisory for the Tri-Cities. Predicting 1-2" for Kingsport. I'm not buying. JC, maybe...not KPT. But an excellent forecast write-up today. Kudos to who wrote that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Here is part of that discussion... 000 FXUS64 KMRX 042049 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 349 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS POPPED EARLY TODAY AND AIRMASS SEEMS TO BE COLDER THAN ADVERTISED. TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX IS VERY CONSISTENT BETWEEN GFS AND NAM AGAIN...AND THE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALSO IS RIGHT ACROSS SW VA AND NRN PARTS OF E TN. SOME CHANGES OF CONCERN WERE... 1) SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ADDED IN...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACTUALLY UP TO 600 MBS ACROSS NRN AREAS. VERY COLD ALOFT SO EXCELLENT SNOW GROWTH. THIS ALL FITS IN WELL WITH HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK GRAPHIC FOR DAY 1 NOW DEPICTING HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS SW VA. THUS...I UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR SW VA AND THE NRN MTNS OF E TN. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEMS TO ALSO SUPPORT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LESSER SNOW ACROSS NRN PLATEAU AND THE TRI CITIES AREAS. THE CENTRAL VALLEY...INCLUDING LAKEWAY AREA...COULD GET A DUSTING UP TO 2 INCHES...BUT I DID NOT ADD AN ADVISORY THERE YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 congrates to everyone seeing snow. I would rename this thread if someone could tell me how to edit it. Looks like the Northern foothills are going to get in on this as well as well as most of the counties along the VA/NC boarder could see some kind of snow falling. Been snowing here off and on all day. Very windy with temp right now at 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 Moto what do you think. That blob of moisture coming in from TN and KY looks pretty good. Could be some suprises here and there. Temp is alread down to freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 I was on Mt Leconte today at noon and the temp was about 15F with snow coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 I was on Mt Leconte today at noon and the temp was about 15F with snow coming down hard. Nice. Wow 15 degrees i bet the wind chill was below zero up there. I think we get a couple hours lull but then when this band comes through a little later thinks will crank up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Hey All, Just got back from N Ohio & had to drop my oldest daughter off at App. Got to ride the back roads from Wytheville into NC thru Boone & down to Weaverville. It was snowing hard in Ashe County, NC with about a inch on the ground. Boone had about a half inch & the Grandfather area was the winner with about 1.5". Kinda hit and miss after that with partly cloudy cond. here at home. This was from about 4-7 pm. Stayed in Richfield OH and got to see some Lake effect this am. Got down to about 3/4M vis. Glad to be back at the house this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 I really like the precip filling in across TN right now. With the NW flow and the precip banking agains the mountains there could be some nice snowfall rates after this thing starts up. I expect our WWA to be changes to a WSW because the precip seems to be coming in a little farther south and our temp is already down to 29 degrees and still dropping and snow has started back up again. Things should start to get interesting around 11 i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 Starting to snow here again very lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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