trapperman Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Man, I would kill for a 2007-esque severe season. We had our first storm up here in late March that year. There was snow on the ground and we got a dandy elevated cell that came through overnight. Unreal lightning show for March. That year also gave us the four day outbreak here in southern MB which included the Elie and Pipestone tornadoes on back-to-back days. We have a strong southerly flow affecting southern MB today. Some nice WAA going on. Our low tonight looks to hover right around zero. Bring on the torch! :weenie: Why again do I frequent this board? LOL, just a joke. Crawling into my storm shelter until September, see you all then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Undoubtedly one of the worst winters I have seen. Spring doesn't look much better for winter lovers and anomalous spring/winter dumps either. A couple weeks ago I would have said the same but things changed for the better around here anyways, but nationwide I would say yeah its been pretty awful this winter. The upcoming weeks ahead I would agree are not looking good, lakes cutter after lakes cutter, actually they might be west of the lakes, anyways there is just no cold to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 A couple weeks ago I would have said the same but things changed for the better around here anyways, but nationwide I would say yeah its been pretty awful this winter. The upcoming weeks ahead I would agree are not looking good, lakes cutter after lakes cutter, actually they might be west of the lakes, anyways there is just no cold to be found. Yeah you had a nice little reprieve up there in the N country. Torchfest look bad for everyone though. + Temperature anomalies will extend well into Canada as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The medium range is certainly looking interesting for potential severe day 8 and beyond. The torch is inevitable, but some guidance in the GEFS would be potential significant severe episodes across the southern plains into the central plains along the dryline. Moisture flow is going to be unabated all the way into the northern plains. Teleconnection wise, it seems like a high probability...it just depends on how the trough ejects/tilt config. Even neutral tilt that would potentially be an active dryline. 12z GFS OP/ensembles are pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 12z GFS OP/ensembles are pretty crazy. Too early to get all amped up for Day 10 threats, but from a large scale synoptic perspective, the overall pattern is conducive to a potential bout of severe somewhere across the central/southern plains. Bermuda high is nicely placed, trajectories long, impressive early season moisture return. Trough config/ejecting strength a big question mark as one would expect. Potential is there though somewhere along the dryline depending on shorter wave length disturbances embedded within the trough. Interesting to see how this potential negative tilt western trough develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This is out of the WFO ARX (Laccrosse WI) from the last last paragraph of their AFD...interesting indeed. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 332 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2012 09.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE THE UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GEFS STILL INDICATING AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WHICH INDICATES NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 60S/LOWER 70S. MAIN CONCERN/FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ECMWF SHOWING NEAR 1500J/KG OF 0-3KM MUCAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. WILL THEREFORE HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. APPEARS BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NECEDAH AND VIROQUA WISCONSIN...TO FAYETTE IA. HOWEVER...DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG CAP/TIMING OF FRONT...KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. It could be a rather interesting season in the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest this year. The SE ridge could settle in further north than last year bringing the battle ground further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Too early to get all amped up for Day 10 threats, but from a large scale synoptic perspective, the overall pattern is conducive to a potential bout of severe somewhere across the central/southern plains. Bermuda high is nicely placed, trajectories long, impressive early season moisture return. Trough config/ejecting strength a big question mark as one would expect. Potential is there though somewhere along the dryline depending on shorter wave length disturbances embedded within the trough. Interesting to see how this potential negative tilt western trough develops. What I like about it is that it is actually moving forward in timeframe consistently. 12z GGEM now showing something very large developing off the west coast towards the end of its run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 What I like about it is that it is actually moving forward in timeframe consistently. 12z GGEM now showing something very large developing off the west coast towards the end of its run as well. I agree and I think that is what is key and that it is showing up consistently, track and qpf are irrelevant at this stage. Just to have something there means something COULD happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 This whole set up reminds me of 2010 where MSP had zero snowfall for March, sure this year we have had some but it came very early. I don't see any snowfall for the rest of March. In 2010 we had to wait until May or June before we had any cape values here, but then when it happened all H**L broke loose as we (Minnesota) led the nation with 113 tornado's that year. The big difference this year is that the models, in particular the Euro are bringing cape values into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/ Upper Midwest during mid to late March. This pattern is about one and a half to two months earlier than 2010. I hope I'm wrong but I think it will be very active around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Here is the Japanese model forecast for MAM And the CFSV2 Looks to me as if the severe season will go north. I would seriously like to here what the professional mets think about this. I could post the MJO, but I think we all know how to find that. sorry, that didn't format right, still learning how to use this site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Just because the temp anomalies are warm/torching doesn't mean that the severe threat will go north earlier, although it may suggest a more widespread threat with systems that do develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Regarding next weekend: agreement on the overall pattern is quite good, and has been for several days now. What we're seeing over the next 7-10 days reminds me a lot of late March 2007: prolonged, broad eastern ridging that allows our reservoir of boundary-layer moisture to build to borderline-unseasonable levels before the arrival of a major western trough. In my opinion, we're already entering the timeframe in which the main concern is down to the details of the trough evolution. There are lots of different ways that could still go, some of them greatly minimizing severe potential. The biggest concern I have is the possibility that the trough stalls farther west than currently suggested, then shears out a few days later as a positive-tilt, lifting mess. If it can progress towards and dig into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, however, a notable severe event would be rather likely. IMO, for Plains severe weather events outside of the May-June timeframe, moisture is king. If you get a lot of moisture to accompany a major trough in the early spring or fall, the probability of something noteworthy shoots up. Right now, the moisture situation looks anomalously "good" for mid-March. We'll see if that continues over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Man, is the 00z GFS active, just a train of systems in the second half of March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Man, is the 00z GFS active, just a train of systems in the second half of March... Next Saturday looks like pure insanity, taking it verbatim and assuming the moisture is sufficient (damn NCEP site...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Talk about negative tilt...jesus. Looking at Instantwxmaps, moisture looks more than sufficient, gets 65 dews to the Red River and this is 192 hrs out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 Regarding next weekend: agreement on the overall pattern is quite good, and has been for several days now. What we're seeing over the next 7-10 days reminds me a lot of late March 2007: prolonged, broad eastern ridging that allows our reservoir of boundary-layer moisture to build to borderline-unseasonable levels before the arrival of a major western trough. In my opinion, we're already entering the timeframe in which the main concern is down to the details of the trough evolution. There are lots of different ways that could still go, some of them greatly minimizing severe potential. The biggest concern I have is the possibility that the trough stalls farther west than currently suggested, then shears out a few days later as a positive-tilt, lifting mess. If it can progress towards and dig into the Four Corners and southern Rockies, however, a notable severe event would be rather likely. IMO, for Plains severe weather events outside of the May-June timeframe, moisture is king. If you get a lot of moisture to accompany a major trough in the early spring or fall, the probability of something noteworthy shoots up. Right now, the moisture situation looks anomalously "good" for mid-March. We'll see if that continues over the next week. Still plenty to go synoptically, agreed. Reminds me a little, however, of May 2007 synoptic setup with Greensburg (still not as amplified as that event). That event came down to a short wave length feature embedded in that beast negative tilt trough for much of the severe activity that day. Trough configuration here looks similar in some of the guidance. Interestingly...a lot of guidance also progging a potential weak lead southern stream anomaly...similar to May 4-5, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 I've kinda seen some similarities to 4/26/91 in several of the model verbatims as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 ECMWF at day 7. Looks pretty similar to the 12Z. Verbatim would still be slower and dig farther S than the GFS. I am guessing ejection would come a full day later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 ECMWF at day 7. Looks pretty similar to the 12Z. Verbatim would still be slower and dig farther S than the GFS. I am guessing ejection would come a full day later. Would be a hell of a birthday for me. Huge Bermuda High in place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 192: Fails to really eject at 216 though, although that could be the Euro's bias of holding back energy in the SW too long. Ends at 240 with a cut-off digging south and the big western trough taking shape again behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 192: Fails to really eject at 216 though, although that could be the Euro's bias of holding back energy in the SW too long. Yeah the EC certainly has a strong positive tilt wave with mostly leeside cyclogenesis/WAA along the entire length of the Rockies. Results in an elongated leeside cyclone. Still a long way to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah, I'm really thinking the models are going to be all over the place with regards on how to resolve all of the UL energy associated with this feature/large scale pattern. Edit: GGEM is going big, although a bit further north it looks like than the GFS or Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 10, 2012 Author Share Posted March 10, 2012 LOL the ECM digs that trough all the way into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Yeah pretty much, although I'm not exactly sure how realistic that is GFS ensemble mean is crazy...jesus... Yes...that is a 991 mb SLP on an ensemble mean...wow, its in a historically classic position for a Plains severe weather event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 00z Euro ensemble mean...yikes Look at the way the diffluent right side of the ejecting mid level jet punches right into the warm sector of the sfc cyclogenesis. Given the amplitude/size of the trough, that is probably a very strong upper/mid level jet as well. Also has the stout Bermuda Ridge providing moisture transport, like the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 The ECMWF and its ensembles probably hold it back too much for a big event next weekend (elongated SLP, capping and lack of dynamic forcing, etc.), but even in that scenario, I still think something significant would be inevitable as more energy dives into the wrn US trough over the following several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 The ECMWF and its ensembles probably hold it back too much for a big event next weekend (elongated SLP, capping and lack of dynamic forcing, etc.), but even in that scenario, I still think something significant would be inevitable as more energy dives into the wrn US trough over the following several days. Not exactly sure I agree with that, I'd have to think there would be a possible dryline setup on Saint Patrick's Day with the Euro ensemble's verbatim, possibly even on the next day too. Remember that ensemble means are difficult to gauge for movement of SLP's, shortwave impulses and other features within the large scale pattern. The reason I am posting the ensemble means is because it is pretty rare to see such a strong and similar solution across the ensembles this far out. Although I'd agree about the Euro OP, something tells me it is holding back the energy in the SW too long like it commonly does in this range, and yes, it shows the very large/energetic western trough re-establishing itself almost immediately, as do the other models. Edit: The GGEM ensembles are virtually identical through 144...pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Not exactly sure I agree with that, I'd have to think there would be a possible dryline setup on Saint Patrick's Day with the Euro ensemble's verbatim, possibly even on the next day too. Remember that ensemble means are difficult to gauge for movement of SLP's, shortwave impulses and other features within the large scale pattern. Although I'd agree about the Euro OP, and yes, it shows the very large/energetic western trough re-establishing itself almost immediately. Fair point regarding the ensembles; I probably shouldn't try to read that much into them given nothing more than an H5/MSLP mean plot. I do want to make the general comment, just based on closely monitoring Plains severe for the past 5-6 years and also researching some historical cases, that back-to-back dryline days of significance are almost unheard of this early in the season. Or, to put it another way, most significant events that happen in the southern/central Plains before ~April 15 seem to involve a trough that plows through, rather than lingering west and spitting out multiple waves. The latter scenario is much more of a mid-late spring phenomenon, at least within the set of cases I'm familiar with. That's not to say a trough can't linger west and then eventually eject with one significant day; just that I wouldn't expect day after day of big dryline stuff in the interim. To me, the GFS looks much closer to what I'd envision as a big early-spring Plains event (scary close, actually). But then I'd do well to remember March 28, 2007, which largely defied climatology and burned some people with my mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 Fair point regarding the ensembles; I probably shouldn't try to read that much into them given nothing more than an H5/MSLP mean plot. I do want to make the general comment, just based on closely monitoring Plains severe for the past 5-6 years and also researching some historical cases, that back-to-back dryline days of significance are almost unheard of this early in the season. Or, to put it another way, most significant events that happen in the southern/central Plains before ~April 15 seem to involve a trough that plows through, rather than lingering west and spitting out multiple waves. The latter scenario is much more of a mid-late spring phenomenon, at least within the set of cases I'm familiar with. That's not to say a trough can't linger west and then eventually eject with one significant day; just that I wouldn't expect day after day of big dryline stuff in the interim. To me, the GFS looks much closer to what I'd envision as a big early-spring Plains event (scary close, actually). But then I'd do well to remember March 28, 2007, which largely defied climatology and burned some people with my mindset. Excellent point here. I was more referring that if we didn't get it on one day, the other may provide it instead (I.E. either Saint Patrick's Day or my birthday). And then with the GFS, I checked a few of the progged soundings and saw some scary wind profiles across the Plains (especially KS, OK and TX) on Saturday with the verbatim, good bulk shear vectors for supercells and plenty of moisture already showing up too, although that's getting a bit too specific at this point, just wanted to add to your comment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2012 Share Posted March 10, 2012 This is when you have watch out for early Spring setups: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 AM CST SAT MAR 10 2012 VALID 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... A SLOW EVOLUTION TOWARD WRN U.S. TROUGHING WILL BE NOTED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER GREATLY IN DETAILS REGARDING INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES/SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS THAT EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CONUS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE RELATIVELY MODEST-WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW REGIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS EWD PROGRESSION OF STRONG FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE DEVELOPING WRN U.S. TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF LAGS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ACROSS CA. ONE THING APPEARS PROBABLE...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR GULF AIR MASS TO RETURN INLAND. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES NOTED ABOVE THE PREDICTABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 03/10/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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