baroclinic_instability Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Hope everyone across portions of the Northern Plains enjoyed their snow. The torchfest begins next week with some of the warmest temps we have seen all year spreading into the plains. The torch may be long lived too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 DLH also says torch with possibly mid 40s next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Dr No says one more flirt with winter and then completely goes ape with sw cutoff lows and extreme northern plains torch. Time to break open the can of severe weather weenies. After last spring and now today I almost never want to see another severe weather report. (Not really, just the way I feel tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 12Z Euro really looking torchy at the end of its run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I'm sick of the modest cold/cool wx we've had here this winter. Nothing to show for it. No snow. I HATE cold without snow. Makes me miss living in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 Overall it is going to be a big torch. I guess I don't mind it as much now since it is spring, but still, what an amazing torch run this winter. The ECMWF continues to cave to the GEFS with a more progressive and weaker cold shot following the big torch next week. Another torch in the way after that. The temperature anomalies we are looking at are so large the cold fronts barely bring things back to normal for huge chunks of the plains into the Ozarks. 850 T anomalies first torch via the GFS: 850 T anomalies after the cold shot mid week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Nice surprise snow event up this way today as some places have gotten 10" with an inverted trough and help from Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 6, 2012 Share Posted March 6, 2012 The cut off low is getting handled way differently by the models for late this weekend, euro/ggem more west while gfs is out east. Looks like rain for most anyway you look at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 7, 2012 Author Share Posted March 7, 2012 The cut off low is getting handled way differently by the models for late this weekend, euro/ggem more west while gfs is out east. Looks like rain for most anyway you look at it though. Yeah it is definitely a warm storm for everyone, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Seriously looking at the model runs today, especially the GFS tonight, if no one told me different I would think I was looking at a map up here from late May/early June last year. This is almost getting a little unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 6Z GFS has now taken a much more western track with the cutoff which it had a few days ago, coming more in line with what the euro/ggem have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 40 and light rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 Brrrr..... I miss my 69 and sunny from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 7, 2012 Share Posted March 7, 2012 This cool down is only temporary, it looks to warm up again this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 My first post, new member today. Blow torch warm coming into the Upper Mississippi Valley, 70-75° temps possible around 3/15, dews around 55, cape anywhere from 750 to 2000 by the 17th. Any one looking at possible severe? Is there a spell check option here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 My first post, new member today. Blow torch warm coming into the Upper Mississippi Valley, 70-75° temps possible around 3/15, dews around 55, cape anywhere from 750 to 2000 by the 17th. Any one looking at possible severe? Is there a spell check option here? Welcome, nice to see another Minnesotan on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012 VALID 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... LOW PREDICTABILITY PERSISTS OVER THE DETAILED EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH IN THE CNTRL CONUS...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND SWRN CANADA. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLYS OVER THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN A N/NEWD EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. IT IS PROBABLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF AT LEAST MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ACCOMPANY THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON SUN/MON D4-5. STILL...GIVEN THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PREDICTABILITY ISSUES...A 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE AREA CANNOT BE RELIABLY IDENTIFIED ATTM. ..GRAMS.. 03/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 My first post, new member today. Blow torch warm coming into the Upper Mississippi Valley, 70-75° temps possible around 3/15, dews around 55, cape anywhere from 750 to 2000 by the 17th. Any one looking at possible severe? Is there a spell check option here? Great to have another member on here from MN. Welcome. 3/15 lokos marginally interesting if anything due to the progged moisture return N and the strong wave ejecting into Canada late on the 14th per GFS/ECMWF. RIght now any threat would probably exist farther E into WI/MI/IL. Timing of that relatively low amplitude wave is not well known yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 This cool down is only temporary, it looks to warm up again this weekend. Nice warmup into the weekend. The extended range looks more like a pattern I would expect in May for the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 8, 2012 Author Share Posted March 8, 2012 850 temperature anomalies via GFS a week out. All guidance torches much of the central and eastern US including the northern plains into southern Canada with most of the cold air developing across the N Pacific again. Now that it is spring it is slightly easier to swallow... Some of these anomalies are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You'd have to think the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will be in a good spot for thunderstorm activity this spring and into summer. The Gulf is warmer than normal and we could see the jet stream well north due to the big torch expected in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You'd have to think the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest will be in a good spot for thunderstorm activity this spring and into summer. The Gulf is warmer than normal and we could see the jet stream well north due to the big torch expected in the coming weeks. Although I'd still have to think the most reliable times for severe events up there would have to be late May and June, but I do agree that they could see an above average year. Remember, we were talking a possible high risk in Wisconsin last year on April 10th, but then the jet sunk south again after that and led to all of those problems in the South Central/SE portions of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 March torch = rampant severe weather ism. All I can say about the model runs is... Unrealized. Does look active. Very much so. Expecting to hear my first thunder of the year in the next couple weeks. This has shades of spring 07 written all over it. Been a long time since we've had southerly H5s across the entire plains. See March 28, 2007 on SPC. Looking an awful lot like that pattern coming up but there is an eternity to go before it is realized. Models couldn't even handle the trough/cutoff coming thru this weekend until the last 24 hours. Wait and see I guess. If I would speculate about sever season, I would say we would see more events further west as spring goes on. Seemed like almost everything was east of the Mississippi last spring, With the upcoming drought buster and great chances for the southern plains to get a soaking, I would think we'd see the dryline take up residence back in the territory it belongs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 March torch = rampant severe weather ism. All I can say about the model runs is... Unrealized. Does look active. Very much so. Expecting to hear my first thunder of the year in the next couple weeks. This has shades of spring 07 written all over it. Been a long time since we've had southerly H5s across the entire plains. See March 28, 2007 on SPC. Looking an awful lot like that pattern coming up but there is an eternity to go before it is realized. Models couldn't even handle the trough/cutoff coming thru this weekend until the last 24 hours. Wait and see I guess. If I would speculate about sever season, I would say we would see more events further west as spring goes on. Seemed like almost everything was east of the Mississippi last spring, With the upcoming drought buster and great chances for the southern plains to get a soaking, I would think we'd see the dryline take up residence back in the territory it belongs. Except this was a bit of a complicated setup to forecast from a model's standpoint, particularly in the longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Andy, you're a good guy and a good poster. I was not calling you out as a severe weather . I may come across as cranky sometimes but that's only because we just had the biggest azz suck winter ever followed by the most epic (modeled) torch forthcoming. Does look active. It's kind of exciting to see the dryline back where it belongs on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Andy, you're a good guy and a good poster. I was not calling you out as a severe weather . I may come across as cranky sometimes but that's only because we just had the biggest azz suck winter ever followed by the most epic (modeled) torch forthcoming. Does look active. It's kind of exciting to see the dryline back where it belongs on the models. No I'm not accusing you of anything, don't get me wrong. I'd also be weary about declaring threats further west, since the models often tend to overdue the longevity/staying power of the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 well now that we all love each other you can be excited by the torch and I can sit here pissing and moaning until next November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 The medium range is certainly looking interesting for potential severe day 8 and beyond. The torch is inevitable, but some guidance in the GEFS would be potential significant severe episodes across the southern plains into the central plains along the dryline. Moisture flow is going to be unabated all the way into the northern plains. Teleconnection wise, it seems like a high probability...it just depends on how the trough ejects/tilt config. Even neutral tilt that would potentially be an active dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 9, 2012 Author Share Posted March 9, 2012 well now that we all love each other you can be excited by the torch and I can sit here pissing and moaning until next November. Undoubtedly one of the worst winters I have seen. Spring doesn't look much better for winter lovers and anomalous spring/winter dumps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Does look active. Very much so. Expecting to hear my first thunder of the year in the next couple weeks. This has shades of spring 07 written all over it. Been a long time since we've had southerly H5s across the entire plains. See March 28, 2007 on SPC. Looking an awful lot like that pattern coming up but there is an eternity to go before it is realized. Man, I would kill for a 2007-esque severe season. We had our first storm up here in late March that year. There was snow on the ground and we got a dandy elevated cell that came through overnight. Unreal lightning show for March. That year also gave us the four day outbreak here in southern MB which included the Elie and Pipestone tornadoes on back-to-back days. We have a strong southerly flow affecting southern MB today. Some nice WAA going on. Our low tonight looks to hover right around zero. Bring on the torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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