Tropopause_Fold Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I suppose, it just seems that the region is infested with humorless crybabies. I wouldn't even visit there. Once was enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 THE GFS has .25" on ACK now and grazes NS with .75" so it's no longer a complete miss of all land areas below NFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 He lives in a great snow spot. and is a great guy.No doubt about it. It's remarkable. But it's just that he won't admit that winter is just about over and that more than likely there is no more snow coming. He thinks he won;t get out of the 40's next week..when in fact he may crack 60. March overall is going to roast..There's nothing that suggests otherwise. A couple transient cooler days mixed in is normal That's what you said yesterday and then as if on cue I picked up another 2" last night. Care to make a bet about more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It's true.lol Plus I have to give them more fodder for the hate MRG machine. What a bunch of chumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Did anyone see this post in the conference forum? I mean if this doesn;t make you I don't know what would Has anyone met Scott yet? I've been to every gtg except one in the past 2 years and he wasn't at any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It was silly to say there would be no more snow. Even if the vaunted MJO forecast does preclude more snow until later March ...we all know what can happen in April. And I find it amusing that some people (uhh JB) are now clinging to the MJO. LOL Yeah it seem to have been the best indicator to follow for this past winter, but it's just one of several. 3/11-14/1888 3/13-14/1993 4/6/1982 3/31-4/1/1997 3/16-17/2007 4/16/2007 (out here) Enuff said... That's what you said yesterday and then as if on cue I picked up another 2" last night. Care to make a bet about more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 That's what you said yesterday and then as if on cue I picked up another 2" last night. Care to make a bet about more snow? In the interest of full disclosure, before you make a bet you'll likely regret, we average 16" in March and 6" in April. We've had 45+" Marchs and 24+" Aprils. Just so you know. So what's the bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Just don't bet in favor of snow with anyone who lives in KGAY. LOL In the interest of full disclosure, before you make a bet you'll likely regret, we average 16" in March and 6" in April. We've had 45+" Marchs and 24+" Aprils. Just so you know. So what's the bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It was silly to say there would be no more snow. Even if the vaunted MJO forecast does preclude more snow until later March ...we all know what can happen in April. And I find it amusing that some people (uhh JB) are now clinging to the MJO. LOL Yeah it seem to have been the best indicator to follow for this past winter, but it's just one of several. 3/11-14/1888 3/13-14/1993 4/6/1982 3/31-4/1/1997 3/16-17/2007 4/16/2007 (out here) Enuff said... I think the MJO is probably the least reliable in Spring and Fall, unless it is a strong wave. Wavelengths shorten and cutoffs form all the time. Teleconnections like the AO and PNA also aren't as reliable, but they still get the overall depiction more or less correct I think. Either way, it's going to be the battle of weenies. In one corner, Pete and him clinging onto every last pile of crud. In the other corner..Joe who will post every pic of Dandelion growing in the yards near Bridgeport CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 ill be hiking the whites in mid may hoping a cut off low drops snows at 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Wow, look at the temp contrast between the Ct Valley and Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 3, 2012 Author Share Posted March 3, 2012 winds are calm here now and temp is starting to spike, 50, looking at sat sun should be breaking out this afternoon hopefully make a run at 60. Lots of various bugs flying around this morning, smells earthy outside today, lots of water lately, these bugs are in for a rude awakening monday and monday night before the fire returns wed. Hope eastern ne gets scraped later this weekend, I think they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 So uh, how bout that weenie cut-off on the 12z GFS at around hr 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Wow, look at the temp contrast between the Ct Valley and Hudson Valley. Westerly winds mixing out the inversion...going to happen to all of us later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Wow, look at the temp contrast between the Ct Valley and Hudson Valley. Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 The HV is going to have a roasting downslope southwest wind this afternoon. I dunno if that will break through in time to cook the CT Valley. Wow, look at the temp contrast between the Ct Valley and Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 BUF has been gusting above 50 for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 We'll torch later on, but early this week looks cold. OT, but it's going to be a weird site when snow covers tornado damage out in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It was silly to say there would be no more snow. Even if the vaunted MJO forecast does preclude more snow until later March ...we all know what can happen in April. And I find it amusing that some people (uhh JB) are now clinging to the MJO. LOL Yeah it seem to have been the best indicator to follow for this past winter, but it's just one of several. 3/11-14/1888 3/13-14/1993 4/6/1982 3/31-4/1/1997 3/16-17/2007 4/16/2007 (out here) Enuff said... It doesn't. My own opinion about the MJO is that it is overrated and overused. Yes, it has an impact on the circulation system of both hemispheres, as it straddles the equator to 10 or 15 degrees N and south and propagates, ...or fails to do so, to the east, dying a slow death as it goes, before a new one is born back west toward the Indian Ocean. All that is true and clad, statistically shown, and observable. The problem I have is that the MJO is at other times, not correlating with the circulation system as a whole - certainly not over N/A. Perfect example, the Phase 7-8-1 of the MJO is correlated with eastern N/A negative geopotential anomalies and storminess therein. This last 4 weeks showed a robust translation of an MJO event right through the heart of those sweet Phase states and we got a big fat ugly disgusting 0 correlation on the flow. Nothing. zippo. Ripped off... It's like...people forget that or choose to ignore for whatever reason, and just can't wait to discuss the MJO the next - I dunno. To me, if we can get nadda during 7-8-1, we can get clocked just the same in 3-4-5. Why the correlated verification on the circulation is inconsistent is an interesting question to me, but I have often hypothesized that it may have something to do with whether the polarward exertion in the atmospheric medium is positively, or negatively supportive of the MJO's presence. When it is positive, the MJO seems to be the entire cat's meow and everything looks directly culpable to its phase strength/spatial-temporally. But when the surrounding medium is negative, the MJO can smash through it's phases all it wants and the flow at 40 N does not get as influenced. But that's hypothetical and non-tested. Whatever the cause, the recent strong phased 7-8-1 produce jack schit, not just in New England, but anywhere east of Hawaii and W of NS for that matter. It is only logical to assume that breakdown applies both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 It doesn't. My own opinion about the MJO is that it is overrated and overused. Yes, it has an impact on the circulation system of both hemispheres, as it straddles the equator to 10 or 15 degrees N and south and propagates, ...or fails to do so, to the east, dying a slow death as it goes, before a new one is born back west toward the Indian Ocean. All that is true and clad, statistically shown, and observable. The problem I have is that the MJO is at other times, not correlating with the circulation system as a whole - certainly not over N/A. Perfect example, the Phase 7-8-1 of the MJO is correlated with eastern N/A negative geopotential anomalies and storminess therein. This last 4 weeks showed a robust translation of an MJO event right through the heart of those sweet Phase states and we got a big fat ugly disgusting 0 correlation on the flow. Nothing. zippo. Ripped off... It's like...people forget that or choose to ignore for whatever reason, and just can't wait to discuss the MJO the next - I dunno. To me, if we can get nadda during 7-8-1, we can get clocked just the same in 3-4-5. Why the correlated verification on the circulation is inconsistent is an interesting question to me, but I have often hypothesized that it may have something to do with whether the polarward exertion in the atmospheric medium is positively, or negatively supportive of the MJO's presence. When it is positive, the MJO seems to be the entire cat's meow and everything looks directly culpable to its phase strength/spatial-temporally. But when the surrounding medium is negative, the MJO can smash through it's phases all it wants and the flow at 40 N does get as influenced. But that's hypothetical and non-test. Whatever the cause, the recent strong phased 7-8-1 produce jack schit, not just in New England, but anywhere east of Hawaii and W of NS for that matter. It is only logical to assume that breakdown applies both ways. I do agree the MJO is overrated, but it can work beautifully when in sync with other factors like ENSO and AO. I think this recent P7-8-1 fail is likely because the AO was just not favorable on this side of the globe. Gives credit to your destructive interference idea. In 2005/2005 the MJO worked beautifully iirc. Even 2009/2010. Of course 2009/2010 was actually fairly easy to predict in terms of wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 By the way Scott... Interesting "suggestion" in the operational runs for D7-10 here I think. You almost gotta be creative here, but it is not too far of a stretch that the knifing in of the Euro's 00z D9 combined with this 12z GFS' idea of a deep bowling ball over AR, could blend into something meaningful. The 00z GEFs mean (CDC) were not exactly opposed to the idea of something in there, with their 2 total SD rise in the PNA leading up to that period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I guess the only event was that flat southern stream wave that gave VA a moderate snowfall. This past event has occured in a phase 3 I think? And let's face it.....the primary low headed way west into the lakes again and those of us north of about 42.5N where quite lucky to score a good snowfall. . . It doesn't. My own opinion about the MJO is that it is overrated and overused. Yes, it has an impact on the circulation system of both hemispheres, as it straddles the equator to 10 or 15 degrees N and south and propagates, ...or fails to do so, to the east, dying a slow death as it goes, before a new one is born back west toward the Indian Ocean. All that is true and clad, statistically shown, and observable. The problem I have is that the MJO is at other times, not correlating with the circulation system as a whole - certainly not over N/A. Perfect example, the Phase 7-8-1 of the MJO is correlated with eastern N/A negative geopotential anomalies and storminess therein. This last 4 weeks showed a robust translation of an MJO event right through the heart of those sweet Phase states and we got a big fat ugly disgusting 0 correlation on the flow. Nothing. zippo. Ripped off... It's like...people forget that or choose to ignore for whatever reason, and just can't wait to discuss the MJO the next - I dunno. To me, if we can get nadda during 7-8-1, we can get clocked just the same in 3-4-5. Why the correlated verification on the circulation is inconsistent is an interesting question to me, but I have often hypothesized that it may have something to do with whether the polarward exertion in the atmospheric medium is positively, or negatively supportive of the MJO's presence. When it is positive, the MJO seems to be the entire cat's meow and everything looks directly culpable to its phase strength/spatial-temporally. But when the surrounding medium is negative, the MJO can smash through it's phases all it wants and the flow at 40 N does not get as influenced. But that's hypothetical and non-tested. Whatever the cause, the recent strong phased 7-8-1 produce jack schit, not just in New England, but anywhere east of Hawaii and W of NS for that matter. It is only logical to assume that breakdown applies both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 By the way Scott... Interesting "suggestion" in the operational runs for D7-10 here I think. You almost gotta be creative here, but it is not too far of a stretch that the knifing in of the Euro's 00z D9 combined with this 12z GFS' idea of a deep bowling ball over AR, could blend into something meaningful. The 00z GEFs mean (CDC) were not exactly opposed to the idea of something in there, with their 2 total SD rise in the PNA leading up to that period of time. Yeah I know...would love for a wave to form along the front offshore. It's semi interesting...you never know..just when things look crappy, a random cutoff forms and gives you a blue snowcone surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I don't get it..maybe its me..but in all respect for those who died and who lost their homes yesterday's deadly tornadoes..CNN's anchor woman..Fredirekia Whitfield...said...Peoples Lives turned upside down...hmmmm...poor choice in words ...just saying... Anyways....2" of new snow here this morning in Augusta Maine...r to r+ here with fog..and temps in the upper 30's. 10.5 from the other day's event... And last...Those who lost everything in the tornadoes in Indiana...Snow is forecast for those locations tonight...What the hell is wrong with that picture...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Has anyone met Scott yet? I've been to every gtg except one in the past 2 years and he wasn't at any of them. I've met him. Nice guy and I'll be taking him to dinner twice in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I thought the forecasts were pretty spot on for those tornadoes yesterday. So I'm perplexed as to why such a high death toll. Obviously just a certain % of people that choose not to be vigilant and heed warnings or inadequate storm shelters in homes or public places. You live in that part of the country .... you better expect to get destroyed at least once in your life span and plan accordingly with a good shelter or good insurance. It's a news story yes, but it's really in the range of normal wx for the heartland of America. Early yeah ...but not shocking. It all averages out ...some years are well below normal severe wx-wise. And nice snow location you are at now Craig. I don't get it..maybe its me..but in all respect for those who died and who lost their homes yesterday's deadly tornadoes..CNN's anchor woman..Fredirekia Whitfield...said...Peoples Lives turned upside down...hmmmm...poor choice in words ...just saying... Anyways....2" of new snow here this morning in Augusta Maine...r to r+ here with fog..and temps in the upper 30's. 10.5 from the other day's event... And last...Those who lost everything in the tornadoes in Indiana...Snow is forecast for those locations tonight...What the hell is wrong with that picture...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I've met him. Nice guy and I'll be taking him to dinner twice in the coming months. Cool. Seems to get frustrated just like the rest of us with crappy winters which isn't a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Interesting...the 12z Euro took a sorta step toward what Scott and I were discussing a while ago. Not that it should mean anything...the NOGAPs run has an impressively amplified slow for it's D7+, when also considering it's native progressivity/flat bias thereto. It depicts a QPF monster of a low on the EC - too far west as is but this model has just about 0 dependability on details outside of 24 hours lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Euro has off and on shown this anafrontal blowup of snow form on 3/10. Its an interesting modeling feature to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 euro, Holy Muted Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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