ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I have a feeling this could be a really ugly early Spring once the longwave pattern flips and all that bottle up arctic unloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I have a feeling this could be a really ugly early Spring once the longwave pattern flips and all that bottle up arctic unloads. Might make it an interesting early spring at my latitude. I'm more concerned about that flip coming in late April/May, making for week-long cutoffs with 42F rain. April 1976 was nuts that way ...I remember Easter Break from elementary school, like 80s to near 90 all week. We were in NNJ visiting family then, mid 90s on Easter Sunday, with some humidity, too - NYC minimum was in the 70s. Last patches of snow were almost gone when we got back to Ft. Kent on the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I have a feeling this could be a really ugly early Spring once the longwave pattern flips and all that bottle up arctic unloads. We'll see how big the final warming is. Something like last spring could certainly result in the whole arctic relocating southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 We'll see how big the final warming is. Something like last spring could certainly result in the whole arctic relocating southward. May FTL. You know that will happen. Once the snowpack is torched the cold is muted, unless it comes in via the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The mean srfc ridge position looks like seabreeze/backdoor city down the road, but overall mild pattern..especially interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The CPC sings blue bird sings for the Northeast for Spring warmth...yeah I'll take it...take a peak at the 8-14 outlook....Beautiful! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 May FTL. You know that will happen. Once the snowpack is torched the cold is muted, unless it comes in via the Gulf of Maine. How much does snowpack matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The mean srfc ridge position looks like seabreeze/backdoor city down the road, but overall mild pattern..especially interior. The Monadnocks will probably end up with insane departures since we're far enough southwest not to seabreeze, but also have colder climo than those in eastern SNE. This is going to be another crappy March just like 2011 (though Dobbs did see snow on 3/21 and 3/24 last year), 2010, 2009, and 2008. March 2007 was good in Middlebury but the rest of the country warmed outside of New England. I have fond memories of shoveling off the tennis courts for practice in March 2004 in Westchester...that was the last time we really got hammered in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 How much does snowpack matter? It keeps the temps refrigerated into NNE with limited terrain to warm up. It matters big time as you go into March and especially April. Strong insolation heats the ground up much more efficiently this time of year, so snowpack becomes more of an important variable. Also, soil moisture is important too. If the moisture level is low, then most of the sun's strength is put to heating up the soil instead of evaporating moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I'm going to erect a huge awning to save my snow My pc shows 30% chance of snow Friday night. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The mean srfc ridge position looks like seabreeze/backdoor city down the road, but overall mild pattern..especially interior. This has March 2010 written all the F over it.Just all out torch in places like BDL..with widespread 70's next week..while Bos is cooler but still torch. I don;t see too much potential for backdoors in to interior areas. I remember in 2010..people said the same thing and it never really happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Still have solid snowcover here. About 2 inchches..Full sun areas got a little Morched, but most still have snow. Morch sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 22/7, had some nice snowshower activity this morning to freshen things up. The first hole of the Worthington Golf Course not really ready just yet. There's a reason we don't open until May 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I have a feeling this could be a really ugly early Spring once the longwave pattern flips and all that bottle up arctic unloads. Looks to Gibbs like a solid torch thru April. He is unsure on May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Still have solid snowcover here. About 2 inchches..Full sun areas got a little Morched, but most still have snow. Morch sucks Sping sucks. Morch most of all Unless it snows. And that ain't happening for a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Sping sucks. Morch most of all Unless it snows. And that ain't happening for a little while If you consider next November a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 If you consider next November a little while It snowed this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Sping sucks. Morch most of all Unless it snows. And that ain't happening for a little while March will feature some simply awesome skiing. The Spring cornfest is always such a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 It snowed this morning I've had accumulating snow 3 times since Blizz declared no more snow will fall. Will is right, he's had an awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I bet there is plenty of snow pack in Quebec north of the St. Lawrence yet. Many storms that screwed us did ok from Ottawa north. Although Montreal tended to be barely on the torch side of things a lot. It keeps the temps refrigerated into NNE with limited terrain to warm up. It matters big time as you go into March and especially April. Strong insolation heats the ground up much more efficiently this time of year, so snowpack becomes more of an important variable. Also, soil moisture is important too. If the moisture level is low, then most of the sun's strength is put to heating up the soil instead of evaporating moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 March will feature some simply awesome skiing. The Spring cornfest is always such a blast. You should come meet us at stowe later next week!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 You should come meet us at stowe later next week!!!! Or you could meet me at MRG !?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The Gulf of AK trough is gone at the end of the 18Z GFS run. I'll keep an eye on this to see when we have a consistent trend toward it's demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I bet there is plenty of snow pack in Quebec north of the St. Lawrence yet. Many storms that screwed us did ok from Ottawa north. Although Montreal tended to be barely on the torch side of things a lot. Probably, but the next 2 weeks will suck up there. I doubt it will be as bad as March 2010 when that whole area was dry and no snow. It's different this time around, but the long wave pattern is impressive for warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 This has March 2010 written all the F over it. Just all out torch in places like BDL..with widespread 70's next week..while Bos is cooler but still torch. I don;t see too much potential for backdoors in to interior areas. I remember in 2010..people said the same thing and it never really happened LOL, I think you may be a little too warm. A backdoor front does not mean 38 and drizzle, it can be a large area of east winds even with sunshine. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 LOL, I think you may be a little too warm. A backdoor front does not mean 38 and drizzle, it can be a large area of east winds even with sunshine. I could see that. Well that's what I meant. 2010 had plenty of those east winds while BDL was ripping into the 60's day after day and BOs was like 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The Gulf of AK trough is gone at the end of the 18Z GFS run. I'll keep an eye on this to see when we have a consistent trend toward it's demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 LOL in the annual reference switch from ORH to BDL! He should used IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Wow..all of the CONUS outside NW Washington's 100-500mb thicknesses above 540 by d10 on the 12z Euro. That's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 LOL in the annual reference switch from ORH to BDL! He should used IJD Don't forget he averages 58" a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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