CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Someone should posthumously analyze why the NAO has been so relentlessly positive all winter. Just a few periods of weak -NAO that maybe did coincide with our meager snow threats. Really it's the - NAO that plays a big role when we get cold/snow in March/April. Minus that the warm air just surges in unimpeded. The pattern has been locked. When patterns are so stable, it's virtually impossible to break. As to why, I think there might be a solar connection. I say connection as there probably are other things at play, but it might not be a coincidence that this has been a very stubborn feature during this overall solar uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 that may be wishful thinking - i know their means are lower this time of year, but some of those anomalies centered N of the GLs are insane. Yeah if that's gone, then it becomes like March 2010. -5F anomalies at 850, but +5 anomalies at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 i hate spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 The pattern has been locked. When patterns are so stable, it's virtually impossible to break. As to why, I think there might be a solar connection. I say connection as there probably are other things at play, but it might not be a coincidence that this has been a very stubborn feature during this overall solar uptick. Well said, and I strongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 i hate spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 i hate spring I have this void left from this winter. It's this weird, but disappointing feeling I have after limping over 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 LOL...thank god i have other stuff to keep me occupied or my version of a Tippy V-day meltdown would happen a month later on st. patty's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Euro 2 M temps cooled considerably as Brian stated. Expectations of 70 s should be tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 I have this void left from this winter. It's this weird, but disappointing feeling I have after limping over 10" of snow. it's brutal. the good news is...i got in my car a little while ago and it was warm in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 We're probably gonna put off the ultimate torch until the latter half of next week as things still teleconnect to some intervals of troffiness in the Northeast and Maritimes. Once later this week and again early next week. The all hell breaks loose after that as the AK situation translates further east into western NA. Hopefully it flips and we have fun in the last week of March and April. Euro 2 M temps cooled considerably as Brian stated. Expectations of 70 s should be tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 total speculation but i wonder if it sets us up for a late march or april dump of arctic air / vegetation killer. with the flow across canada locking all the cold up there (and it's still fooking frigid up north) any release later in the season could be potent as its not going to be release in dribs and drabs throughout march like we are used to seeing. of course...it may just lock up there until next november too. I will provide the bullets and gun. I will even draw a target on my forehead. If you could only pull the trigger. We have been waiting for the rubber band to snap back since... Nov 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 We're probably gonna put off the ultimate torch until the latter half of next week as things still teleconnect to some intervals of troffiness in the Northeast and Maritimes. Once later this week and again early next week. The all hell breaks loose after that as the AK situation translates further east into western NA. Hopefully it flips and we have fun in the last week of March and April. No, Kevin promised no more snow in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 No, Kevin promised no more snow in SNE Not a bad call on his part really except for the ORH part. If the torch extends past the third week he has a shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Not a bad call on his part really except for the ORH part. If the torch extends past the third week he has a shot though. Tru dat... Morch forever It seems like we have been in March since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Not a bad call on his part really except for the ORH part. If the torch extends past the third week he has a shot though. I think SNE is done, barring some odd elevation event between warm spells...even that is unlikely. 2m Euro temps are a bit cooler, but I mean there is a solid LW ridge setting up by d10 in the east with the cutoff low in the midwest. Pretty fitting for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 St. John's and vicinity 3:47 PM NST Monday 05 March 2012 Blizzard warning for St. John's and vicinity issued Blizzard conditions over Northeastern Newfoundland will subside this evening. Blizzard conditions will develop over Southeastern Newfoundland Tuesday night. Snowfall accumulations near 25 centimetres are expected by Wednesday morning with strong northerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h resulting in blowing snow with near-zero visibilities. This is a warning that blizzard conditions with near-zero visibilities are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements. A low pressure system currently northeast of the Avalon Peninsula will continue to move out to sea tonight. Snow and blowing snow over central and Northeastern Newfoundland will ease later this evening as winds begin to subside in the wake of the low. An additional 2 to 5 cm of snowfall can be expected bringing storm totals to the range of 20 to 30 cm from this system. Another low pressure system currently developing just off Cape Hatteras will intensify as it tracks northeastward to pass southeast of Newfoundland early Wednesday morning. Snow associated with this low is expected to arrive along the south coast of the island Tuesday afternoon and will spread across the Avalon and east coast Tuesday evening. The snow will be heavy at times giving total accumulations near 25 cm over the Avalon and Burin peninsulas by Wednesday morning, with lesser amounts further west. In addition winds will strengthen from a northerly direction with gusts reaching up to 100 km/h overnight resulting in blowing snow and near zero visibilities. The snow is forecast to taper to flurries across Eastern Newfoundland early Wednesday but winds will remain quite strong resulting in blowing snow and poor visibilities, especially during the first half of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 42 sunny high of 44, great day working today, brisk and chilly for sure but the sun felt great and nothing like up north, tonight should drop like a rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 42 sunny high of 44, great day working today, brisk and chilly for sure but the sun felt great and nothing like up north, tonight should drop like a rock! One last cold night for you guys, then it looks like some very nice wx down there! BDR may hit 65F if the SW wind isn't too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 22 here ....white landscape. Wednesday will obliterate it, but nice now. 42 sunny high of 44, great day working today, brisk and chilly for sure but the sun felt great and nothing like up north, tonight should drop like a rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 22 here ....white landscape. Wednesday will obliterate it, but nice now. Enjoy it Rick, I am sure you have more on the way over the next 6 weeks........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 One last cold night for you guys, then it looks like some very nice wx down there! BDR may hit 65F if the SW wind isn't too bad! A mile or two inland will be toasty bdr on the sandbar might have some issues, I like the area from boston sw down to TAN and west to BDL they should roast on a sw wind, 44 here today in the heart of the cold, the strong sun is doing its magic, my truck was toasty when I got in it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 A mile or two inland will be toasty bdr on the sandbar might have some issues, I like the area from boston sw down to TAN and west to BDL they should roast on a sw wind, 44 here today in the heart of the cold, the strong sun is doing its magic, my truck was toasty when I got in it this afternoon. Yeah, they may kiss 70F with 850s pushing 10C across all of SNE. BDR, HVN, and GON may not get above 55F with water running 39-44F in the sound, which is 3-5F above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 One thing about early season torches ...they are usually pristine and dry in terms of humidity. It isn't until May that you can start to get HHH weather. Sometimes you get like a 85/50 in April... April 1976 was nuts that way ...I remember Easter Break from elementary school, like 80s to near 90 all week. A mile or two inland will be toasty bdr on the sandbar might have some issues, I like the area from boston sw down to TAN and west to BDL they should roast on a sw wind, 44 here today in the heart of the cold, the strong sun is doing its magic, my truck was toasty when I got in it this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 TORCH in MORCH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 DP has dropped to 7 here..going to be a cold night-maybe the last true cold night of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 DP has dropped to 7 here..going to be a cold night-maybe the last true cold night of the season Definitely gets tough in coastal CT to get a 'true' sub 20F night by mid March and beyond. Especially near BDR and over near GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 Courtesy of the fine folks at OKX for my location starting wed w-56 th-61 fr-51 s-50 su-56 m-58 A wonderful stretch of weather ahead, okx put out a SWS for brush fires with the low dews and NW winds, things have dried out nicely.....seemless transition to spring time activites here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Today was sweet. Mid 30s but the warm March sun and fresh snow cover combo was awesome. Too bad I was only outside for like 15 minutes total. If it was bare ground I would be pumped for 50s/60s but the day today made me wish we could have 6 more of these, then 6" of snow, then 6 more sunny mid 30s....repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Well said, and I strongly agree Heavy heavy frisbee. One thing about early season torches ...they are usually pristine and dry in terms of humidity. It isn't until May that you can start to get HHH weather. Sometimes you get like a 85/50 in April... April 1976 was nuts that way ...I remember Easter Break from elementary school, like 80s to near 90 all week. Not quite that warm....but I remember an April break for me, 2008 I think, where it was sunny and 69F on a Sunday afternoon and I specifically remember thinking...Wow, its warm. That was one of the coolest days of the week. It was 70s and 80s for the rest of the week I believe. Might have hit 90F. It was perfect too because the following Monday like 4/25 it was 44F and rain just as we went back to school for the final 7 week stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2012 Share Posted March 5, 2012 Courtesy of the fine folks at OKX for my location starting wed w-56 th-61 fr-51 s-50 su-56 m-58 A wonderful stretch of weather ahead, okx put out a SWS for brush fires with the low dews and NW winds, things have dried out nicely.....seemless transition to spring time activites here. Yea was thinking about Red Flag warnings today, lots of down branches, fuel load is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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