March 2012........Happy Sping

[CoastalWx]

4-7" of snow in parts of VA.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It screams a future MOS bust down the road. No snow pack and NW flow means March 2010 all over again, possibly.

i saw the ec ens 11-15 day surface anomalies...seems to match pretty well with the gfs ens too. unreal.

[Logan11]

Nothing here yet thank goodness... I had a mini allergy attack after doing a a few hour stop in Hilton Head where many of the deciduous trees are in full bud out/bloom. Usually I don't have to deal with that kind of junk here until late April or early May.

The best kind of Spring for the tree pollen allergy sufferer is a late Spring that all of a suddenit turns warm/hot fast. Then every stupid tree goes nuts at once and you get it over with fast - rather than slo-mo leaf out.

I see the same thing, Phil. It seems 2-3 weeks early.

[CoastalWx]

Nothing here yet thank goodness... I had a mini allergy attack after doing a a few hour stop in Hilton Head where many of the deciduous trees are in full bud out/bloom. Usually I don't have to deal with kind of junk here until late April or early May.

The best kind of Spring for the tree pollen allergy sufferer is a late Spring that all of a suddenit turns warm/hot fast. Then every stupid tree goes nuts at once and you get it over with fast - rather than slo-mo leaf out.

Well if the next 2 weeks are modeled correctly, it's coming..lol. I get allergies as well.

[powderfreak]

I like the Winter Storm Warnings down in the mid-Atlantic. Nice for some of that crowd to pick up another solid snowfall.

[Logan11]

After looking at some forecasts I have decided that Gander, NFD is the place to move to for ideal wx. What a winter location...two Noreasters this week alone. Most of this torch period will be blunted there also...maybe Spring in May for them.

I like the Winter Storm Warnings down in the mid-Atlantic. Nice for some of that crowd to pick up another solid snowfall.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nothing here yet thank goodness... I had a mini allergy attack after doing a a few hour stop in Hilton Head where many of the deciduous trees are in full bud out/bloom. Usually I don't have to deal with that kind of junk here until late April or early May.

The best kind of Spring for the tree pollen allergy sufferer is a late Spring that all of a suddenit turns warm/hot fast. Then every stupid tree goes nuts at once and you get it over with fast - rather than slo-mo leaf out.

I agree with you on the get it over quick type of thing...

I don't see that happening.

12 months of above avg temps, with month 13 on it's way

(although some sites started the month below)

Spring sucks

[CoastalWx]

After looking at some forecasts I have decided that Gander, NFD is the place to move to for ideal wx. What a winter location...two Noreasters this week alone. Most of this torch period will be blunted there also...maybe Spring in May for them.

Pretty nasty place other than winter.

[dendrite]

I'm pretty dumbfounded how much this winter was a 180 for me. After having everything go right last year, every possible thing went wrong this year. It's almost impossible to get screwed this bad.

It's crazy that parts of GC had 3-4x your seasonal snowfall in October.

[snowman21]

that would be nice...but i can't imagine how low the probability is of that happening. even at BDL which becomes your new measuring stick (by-the-way, you should change your obs from ORH to BDL now) that would be an unbelievable feat i think. maybe snowman21 could look that up for us.

even 3/10 which was a TORCH (+7 at BDL) there were 5 days with highs below 50F from the 15th onward.

The top 10 Marchs with highs 50+ after the 10th of the month. Included in the table are the number of days (out of 21 days after the 10th) and the March temperature departure.

  HARTFORD            BOSTON            WORCESTER         PROVIDENCE
#  YEAR   DEP      #  YEAR   DEP      #  YEAR   DEP      #  YEAR   DEP
--------------     --------------     --------------     --------------
17  1995  +3.3     16  1946  +8.9     13  1986  +1.7     15  2010  +6.3     
16  1982  -1.1     16  1945  +8.1     12  2003  +0.2     15  1995  +2.3     
16  1957  +0.5     15  1986  +2.4     11  2007  -1.2     15  1986  +1.0     
15  1986  +0.8     14  1936  +3.5     10  2006  +1.0     15  1953  +0.4     
15  1976  +2.4     13  1982  +0.4     10  2000  +5.7     15  1948  -1.8     
14  2010  +7.2     13  1976  +2.9     10  1990  +1.5     14  2007  -0.8     
14  2000  +5.8     13  1948  -0.3     10  1976  +0.4     14  1990  +1.2     
14  1990  +2.4     12  2000  +5.1     10  1973  +6.2     14  1982  -0.1     
14  1953  +1.0     12  1977  +6.4      9  2010  +6.4     13  2003  -0.6     
13  2007  -1.6     11  2010  +5.6      9  1987  +2.1     13  2000  +4.6

[Tropopause_Fold]

The top 10 Marchs with highs 50+ after the 10th of the month. Included in the table are the number of days (out of 21 days after the 10th) and the March temperature departure.

  HARTFORD			BOSTON			WORCESTER		 PROVIDENCE
#  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP
--------------	 --------------	 --------------	 --------------
17  1995  +3.3	 16  1946  +8.9	 13  1986  +1.7	 15  2010  +6.3	
16  1982  -1.1	 16  1945  +8.1	 12  2003  +0.2	 15  1995  +2.3	
16  1957  +0.5	 15  1986  +2.4	 11  2007  -1.2	 15  1986  +1.0	
15  1986  +0.8	 14  1936  +3.5	 10  2006  +1.0	 15  1953  +0.4	
15  1976  +2.4	 13  1982  +0.4	 10  2000  +5.7	 15  1948  -1.8	
14  2010  +7.2	 13  1976  +2.9	 10  1990  +1.5	 14  2007  -0.8	
14  2000  +5.8	 13  1948  -0.3	 10  1976  +0.4	 14  1990  +1.2	
14  1990  +2.4	 12  2000  +5.1	 10  1973  +6.2	 14  1982  -0.1	
14  1953  +1.0	 12  1977  +6.4	  9  2010  +6.4	 13  2003  -0.6	
13  2007  -1.6	 11  2010  +5.6	  9  1987  +2.1	 13  2000  +4.6

cool. thx. so assuming i'm reading that right...it's never happened.

[Brian5671]

Hell, even JB is going blowtorch for March....

[CapturedNature]

The top 10 Marchs with highs 50+ after the 10th of the month. Included in the table are the number of days (out of 21 days after the 10th) and the March temperature departure.

  HARTFORD			BOSTON			WORCESTER		 PROVIDENCE
#  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP	  #  YEAR   DEP
--------------	 --------------	 --------------	 --------------
17  1995  +3.3	 16  1946  +8.9	 13  1986  +1.7	 15  2010  +6.3	
16  1982  -1.1	 16  1945  +8.1	 12  2003  +0.2	 15  1995  +2.3	
16  1957  +0.5	 15  1986  +2.4	 11  2007  -1.2	 15  1986  +1.0	
15  1986  +0.8	 14  1936  +3.5	 10  2006  +1.0	 15  1953  +0.4	
15  1976  +2.4	 13  1982  +0.4	 10  2000  +5.7	 15  1948  -1.8	
14  2010  +7.2	 13  1976  +2.9	 10  1990  +1.5	 14  2007  -0.8	
14  2000  +5.8	 13  1948  -0.3	 10  1976  +0.4	 14  1990  +1.2	
14  1990  +2.4	 12  2000  +5.1	 10  1973  +6.2	 14  1982  -0.1	
14  1953  +1.0	 12  1977  +6.4	  9  2010  +6.4	 13  2003  -0.6	
13  2007  -1.6	 11  2010  +5.6	  9  1987  +2.1	 13  2000  +4.6

If I'm reading that table correctly, the most number of 50°+ days after 3/10 at BDL has been 17? It looks like even a very warm year like 2010 that was +7.2° only had 14. Again, if I'm reading that right, at least it's not all or nothing affair.

[Logan11]

He's beaten into submission now. LOL

Hell, even JB is going blowtorch for March....

[Logan11]

In 2010 we had been hit with that 46" wet snow bomb at the end of February. March was a blow torch then, but that stuff hung on with full snow cover to around 3/25... 50+ temps for days on end and still full snow cover.

But I thought we'd have snow till well into April with such a massive snowpack.

If I'm reading that table correctly, the most number of 50°+ days after 3/10 at BDL has been 17? It looks like even a very warm year like 2010 that was +7.2° only had 14. Again, if I'm reading that right, at least it's not all or nothing affair.

[#NoPoles]

today just sucks...it's windy and cold...temp hovering right around 30...please bring on the 70+ weather...i'm so done with this crap!!!!!

[snowman21]

If I'm reading that table correctly, the most number of 50°+ days after 3/10 at BDL has been 17? It looks like even a very warm year like 2010 that was +7.2° only had 14. Again, if I'm reading that right, at least it's not all or nothing affair.

Yes, 2010 only had 14 of the final 21 days with highs 50+. The seven days (and their highs/lows) not to make it:

3/13/2010 44/37

3/14/2010 47/41

3/15/2010 44/40

3/23/2010 48/42

3/26/2010 48/28

3/27/2010 43/22

3/28/2010 47/26

Looks like a rainstorm from the 13-15th, and then a late March cold snap. Should also note that BDL doesn't have a normal high of 50 until the 21st.

[Hazey]

After looking at some forecasts I have decided that Gander, NFD is the place to move to for ideal wx. What a winter location...two Noreasters this week alone. Most of this torch period will be blunted there also...maybe Spring in May for them.

Try Goose Bay- Happy Valley Labrador. They get hugh amounts of snow (even in this crappy winter) they also get decent summer months. Not uncommon for them to hit upper 80's and even the odd 90's. If I had the money that's where I'd love to build a winter chalet.

[Logan11]

Today's Virginia clipper is Wednesday's blizzard for St. John's, NFD:

Yes, 2010 only had 14 of the final 21 days with highs 50+. The seven days (and their highs/lows) not to make it:

3/13/2010 44/37

3/14/2010 47/41

3/15/2010 44/40

3/23/2010 48/42

3/26/2010 48/28

3/27/2010 43/22

3/28/2010 47/26

Looks like a rainstorm from the 13-15th, and then a late March cold snap. Should also note that BDL doesn't have a normal high of 50 until the 21st.

[NorEastermass128]

Blizz is right. March is now a spring month 4 times out of 5 on average. I asked in an earlier thread, but what did Boston finish with (snowfall). 9.5"?

[ctsnowstorm628]

EC ensembles are a BLOWTORCH. I love it. 60s all the way to the Canadian border, atleast verbatim...I'm sure NNE and ENE get back doored a few times.

[Logan11]

Sounds cool. I have looked down at that area on European trips..."fly over country" for more northerly routed transatlantic flights. Nice to see frozen lakes way into Spring.

Try Goose Bay- Happy Valley Labrador. They get hugh amounts of snow (even in this crappy winter) they also get decent summer months. Not uncommon for them to hit upper 80's and even the odd 90's. If I had the money that's where I'd love to build a winter chalet.

[Logan11]

Nice battle shaping up next Monday between the digging northern stream (and it should dig in the Northeast and Atlantic Canada with the trough in the G. of AK), and the SE ridge. Sets up a lovely back door if you ask me, and some models will have temps of 60F that might turn out to be 30's.

And Steve might get snow in Sunday River.

[Logan11]

[N. OF PIKE]

i just hope the snow holds in the mtns of nh/maine ya and vt too.

i had my fill of warmth in Ft. laud for a while.

yesterday mid pm was a day you wanna bottle if you live down there....68-71 sunny and windy

wed/thur should be cool....thou i have an end of year pass at wa wa .....maybe get a few days in this week.

[Logan11]

This current cool wave is the last one that has any prospect of reaching FL. Summer incoming for them for most of the rest of March probably.

I planted a plot of buttercup squash at my aunt's place in Ocala 2 weeks ago when I was there. They should be poking through this week.

i just hope the snow holds in the mtns of nh/maine ya and vt too.

i had my fill of warmth in Ft. laud for a while.

yesterday mid pm was a day you wanna bottle if you live down there....68-71 sunny and windy

wed/thur should be cool....thou i have an end of year pass at wa wa .....maybe get a few days in this week.

[Typhoon Tip]

man...i know 2010 was mild...but you almost forget how ridiculous it was .... look at this stretch mid-month of march at BDL:

16  62  36  49  11  16   0 0.00  0.0	0  9.2 18 360   M	M   5		24  10
17  67  28  48  10  17   0 0.00  0.0	0  3.3 17 280   M	M   1		22 310
18  69  36  53  14  12   0 0.00  0.0	0  7.6 22 290   M	M   3		29 290
19  73  34  54  15  11   0 0.00  0.0	0  4.0 15 250   M	M   3		22 220
20  74  37  56  17   9   0 0.00  0.0	0  4.3 18 270   M	M   6		24 270
21  72  43  58  18   7   0 0.00  0.0	0  5.8 16 170   M	M   7		20 190

May be heading in a similar direction as I am sure the board denizens and you are all over...

But I'm intrigued by the 00z, PSU E-Wall's D8-10 means product. First of all, a question: Is that the mean of recent operational runs, or is that the ensemble mean of the respective camps? I think it's the ensemble mean... Assuming so, what is interesting is that the 00z mean of the GEFs side is 180 out of phase with both CPC, and to some lesser extent but still out of phase is the CDC's calculations for the PNA. That GEF appeal is a blazing -PNA, but both agencies have the index recovering upwards some 2 total SD during that time.

That's ...wrong.

That aside, there is a clear operational Euro trend to make March - at least for 10 days worth - pretty exotically above normal. The first wave of positive departures sets in this next Wednesday and Thursday. 7-10C at 850 MB with a nice deep layer SW flow to mix the BL to unusual heights for this time of year ... the only thing stopping low to mid 70s on those two afternoons is the snow pack. I'm sure albedo will help lop some potential off the highs - not sure how much though. Thursday would obviously be the warmer of the two days; Wednesday 64F with 20kts SW flow should eat the snow back N of SNE with extreme rapidity.

[CoastalWx]

Man 8-10" near CHO. Unbelievable.

[CoastalWx]

I do like the cutoff potential down the road like Sam alluded to. Could be some nice heavy rains at times.

[pazzo83]

Man 8-10" near CHO. Unbelievable.

And they'll be in the 70s by mid week. Welcome to March in Virginia. I remember in 1994 in Staunton, VA we went from almost 30" of snow in mid March to 70F literally two days later. I've never seen snow melt that fast.