Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 Enjoy the flame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 No way you even get to 60 this week, unless you have a wind from the WSW. Not sure I agree...NWS has 57F for Rindge Thursday, and we're at 1200' in the Monadnocks. Some incredible warmth on the 0z ECM for later in the week and then again in the long range: Looks like 10C 850s over Joe's head for Thursday: Talk about coast to coast warmth at Day 9, looks as if the +NAO pattern is really torching the CONUS as well as troughing in the East Pacific: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Nate, Joe lives on LI Sound. If the wind is s or sw, that's a chilly wind this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Nate, Joe lives on LI Sound. If the wind is s or sw, that's a chilly wind this time of year. Yeah it can hit 63F here and be like 55F on the sound there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Yeah it can hit 63F here and be like 55F on the sound there. Yeah that's good for the 50s, but a 25kt wind from LI sound is pretty cold in early March. Either way, I expect about 10 of these posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Everything is lining up for an early start to severe wx season here...first slight risk by mid-April? That's only a few weeks away!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Nate, Joe lives on LI Sound. If the wind is s or sw, that's a chilly wind this time of year. The GFS starts to turn winds more southwesterly during the day Thursday: Since he lives on the western part of the Sound, the fetch over the Sound isn't that long when you have SW or WSW winds. I agree that he'd never make 60F with due south winds but I'd imagine SW/WSW would do it since 850s are incredibly warm, and we have bare ground which always allows temperatures to climb faster than expected in early spring when we don't have foliage/evapotranspiration to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 The GFS starts to turn winds more southwesterly during the day Thursday: Since he lives on the western part of the Sound, the fetch over the Sound isn't that long when you have SW or WSW winds. I agree that he'd never make 60F with due south winds but I'd imagine SW/WSW would do it since 850s are incredibly warm, and we have bare ground which always allows temperatures to climb faster than expected in early spring when we don't have foliage/evapotranspiration to worry about. The winds would probably back a little more to SW or SSW down there. Always happens when the land heats up and the flow backs to fill the mass void of air heating up over land. But, that would be very warm for the interior just inland. Who knows, maybe with the front approaching from the NW, winds may allow Joe to do Spring cleanups in the nude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Yeah that's good for the 50s, but a 25kt wind from LI sound is pretty cold in early March. Either way, I expect about 10 of these posted. So true, often in torch interior springs days the interior folks get the idea to go to the beach with just shorts and shirtsleeves. As soon as they get within 10 miles it's in the 50 s and miserable. Inland lakes and ponds early spring summer then the beach summer unless it is a NW, W wind. Saw a flurry earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 NWS has a high of 58F for Fairfield Thursday, and a high of 60F for Dobbs Ferry Thursday. It's going to be close definitely. Torches this time of year tend to overperform...heck we've been in the 50s here in February with 850s right around 0C this month, and now we're talking 850s in the 8-12C range. I wonder if Rindge can hit 60F too? That would be amazing for March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 NWS has a high of 58F for Fairfield Thursday, and a high of 60F for Dobbs Ferry Thursday. It's going to be close definitely. Torches this time of year tend to overperform...heck we've been in the 50s here in February with 850s right around 0C this month, and now we're talking 850s in the 8-12C range. I wonder if Rindge can hit 60F too? That would be amazing for March... Eh, March is the first month in the 70s. Not unheard of. We had a very warm day back in early March 2004 iirc. Warm-cold-warm....all part of the typical swing in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 The winds would probably back a little more to SW or SSW down there. Always happens when the land heats up and the flow backs to fill the mass void of air heating up over land. But, that would be very warm for the interior just inland. Who knows, maybe with the front approaching from the NW, winds may allow Joe to do Spring cleanups in the nude. I'm wondering if the coast can sneak out a warm day Friday as winds turn NW but with cold air lagging until Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Eh, March is the first month in the 70s. Not unheard of. We had a very warm day back in early March 2004 iirc. Warm-cold-warm....all part of the typical swing in temps. I know March always has swings towards spring warmth and then back towards winter cold, but I'm seeing the potential for a near historic torch this month given what the ECM, GFS, and their ensembles have been showing. Looks like a monster -PNA coupled with a continued lack of high-latitude blocking could allow warm air to migrate from the Desert Southwest into the Plains, and eventually further east. I'm definitely getting the feel that it's going to be a very early spring. Should be interesting in DC next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Hows PF land looking in the LR (next week)? Thinking of going up to Stowe for a few days for break...$24 lift tickets lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 I'm wondering if the coast can sneak out a warm day Friday as winds turn NW but with cold air lagging until Saturday? Well if the GFS is right, we seabreeze. Otherwise 540 thicknesses could support 60 with good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 I know March always has swings towards spring warmth and then back towards winter cold, but I'm seeing the potential for a near historic torch this month given what the ECM, GFS, and their ensembles have been showing. Looks like a monster -PNA coupled with a continued lack of high-latitude blocking could allow warm air to migrate from the Desert Southwest into the Plains, and eventually further east. I'm definitely getting the feel that it's going to be a very early spring. Should be interesting in DC next weekend. Well yeah, a prolonged torch is different. But in terms of getting into the low 60s in Rindge, it's warm, but not unheard of. However don't forget the interior soils will either be wet or white from the snowcover. So, energy will be used to evaporate the moisture...which may suck down a couple of ticks on the thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 One thing to always watch for as well are any backdoor cold fronts...getting to the time of year where they become a bit more common and those can always screw up temp forecasts. For as warm as models here much colder temps aren't all that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Well yeah, a prolonged torch is different. But in terms of getting into the low 60s in Rindge, it's warm, but not unheard of. However don't forget the interior soils will either be wet or white from the snowcover. So, energy will be used to evaporate the moisture...which may suck down a couple of ticks on the thermometer. Yeah...we have a good 10+ inches on the ground so we'll waste a lot of energy trying to melt/evaporate it this week. In 2010, we had bare, dry ground when the mid March torch came in so we were really able to start warming the sfc and mix up to higher levels during the afternoon. I think most of the countryside around here peaks into the 50s this go-around and then if we get into a possible torch #2 with bare ground I'll start thinking 60s even up here.Even with the amount of snow we have OTG it has that convective look to it like mammatus. We'll probably lose most, if not all, of it by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 Yeah that's good for the 50s, but a 25kt wind from LI sound is pretty cold in early March. Either way, I expect about 10 of these posted. nah, i am off sunny's its been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Yeah...we have a good 10+ inches on the ground so we'll waste a lot of energy trying to melt/evaporate it this week. In 2010, we had bare, dry ground when the mid March torch came in so we were really able to start warming the sfc and mix up to higher levels during the afternoon. I think most of the countryside around here peaks into the 50s this go-around and then if we get into a possible torch #2 with bare ground I'll start thinking 60s even up here. Even with the amount of snow we have OTG it has that convective look to it like mammatus. We'll probably lose most, if not all, of it by Saturday morning. LOL, I know what you mean. Maybe the euro will be right and replace some of what you lost. I wouldn't mind gettting a good March nor'easter, even if 2/3 of it were rain. It's weird to have a winter that lacks a void of coastal storms. I bet that if I were to go back and look at any of our coastal type storms that we had...other than October..the wind probably never gusted past 35kts from the east or northeast. That's literally unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 What is this phantom snow event people are talking about for SNE? The euro gave us no snow thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 LOL, I know what you mean. Maybe the euro will be right and replace some of what you lost. I wouldn't mind gettting a good March nor'easter, even if 2/3 of it were rain. It's weird to have a winter that lacks a void of coastal storms. I bet that if I were to go back and look at any of our coastal type storms that we had...other than October..the wind probably never gusted past 35kts from the east or northeast. That's literally unheard of. I hear you there. I would pay good money just to see a decent coastal with winds and seas! A May 2005 redux would do the trick heading into spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 What is this phantom snow event people are talking about for SNE? The euro gave us no snow thru day 10 D6 was a close call...esp for northenr parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 What I got most out of this thread is the newfound respect for skiMrg. I love the lifestyle and the story of the teachings at the Waldorf school parlaying into a great living is fabulous. Pete.....come to the next gtg as I want to have some time to talk. OT but I had long hair and a ponytail for a while in the late 1990s. High profile job now and judgement suggests to me to forget that idea for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2012 Author Share Posted March 4, 2012 Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to feel absolutely brutal, and a total shock to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 What I got most out of this thread is the newfound respect for skiMrg. I love the lifestyle and the story of the teachings at the Waldorf school parlaying into a great living is fabulous. Pete.....come to the next gtg as I want to have some time to talk. OT but I had long hair and a ponytail for a while in the late 1990s. High profile job now and judgement suggests to me to forget that idea for now... LOL at the pony o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to feel absolutely brutal awesome , and a total reminder to the system of what could have been. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 What is this phantom snow event people are talking about for SNE? The euro gave us no snow thru day 10 It was showing up on Saturday on the earlier run, via Wunderground's weenie maps Probably just nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to feel absolutely brutal, and a total shock to the system. will feel warmer with the march sun--and then we torch starting Wednesday--bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2012 Share Posted March 4, 2012 Speaking of g2g when is the next one? We usually have it in March or April...Kevin has been slacking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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