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2012 Spring Banter Thread


Ellinwood

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I think you and Fozz are taking this the wrong way. By no means am I stating that I'm upset with our winters (I've lived in the area my entire life and know what to expect), just stating that they suck in most years and by suck I mean we get below average snowfall. Data supports that claim. There are far too many people in this area that expect 09-10/95-96/02-03 esque winters far too often. It just doesn't happen. Quite rare, actually.

Um... that is exactly what you have been saying

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Using the "average" sets your expectations too high because it's biased by great years like 09-10, 02-03 and 95-96. The median snowfall is a much better representation of what you should expect in a given year. If you use the median, the 3-5 years in the last 11 where BWI had snowfall in the mid-upper teens in inches is pretty much right down the pipe "normal".

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Using the "average" sets your expectations too high because it's biased by great years like 09-10, 02-03 and 95-96. The median snowfall is a much better representation of what you should expect in a given year. If you use the median, the 3-5 years in the last 11 where BWI had snowfall in the mid-upper teens in inches is pretty much right down the pipe "normal".

I think what seems "off" in recent years is the # of events we get in a "normal" year. My memory may be off but I swear we averaged alot more events in the 70's and 80's. I lived in CO for most of the 90's so I don't know how those years stack up. It just seems like the number of events has trailed off and even some of the years we hit climo were just from one big hit and a nickle and dime here and there.

09-10 was just a perfect lineup of all factors that give us a good winter. It wasn't really a fluke. It will happen again. Just like this winter was a perfect lineup of factors to give us a total crap winter. It will happen again too.

Could be a natural cycle or we could be in a modified climate regime. Winters are warmer overall so that may be our problem. We're on the climo fringe in the MA. When it's warmer than normal here it doesn't snow. The same can't be said to our north.

I don't need big snows to enjoy a winter. MBY averages 22" I think. I'd take 2-4"'s all winter long to get there. Just doesn't seem to work like that anymore and I'm not really sure why.

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SPS from LWX WFO:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1040 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-

042-050>057-501-502-504-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506-080000-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-

FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-

RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-EASTERN HIGHLAND-

HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-

EASTERN MINERAL-EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...

WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...

WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...

HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...

LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...

ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...

MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...

KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...FRANKLIN

1040 AM EST WED MAR 7 2012

...ENHANCED THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON

WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO

BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE

ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE

HUMIDITY AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE

SPREAD OF WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON.

OPEN BURNING OF ANY TYPE IS CONSIDERED VERY HAZARDOUS THIS TIME OF

YEAR. ACCIDENTAL ESCAPED DEBRIS BURNS ARE THE NUMBER ONE CAUSE OF

WILDFIRES.

$$

BL/KRW

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I'm sorry to disappoint anyone, but I just committed to having my roof replaced next month. This therefore means it'll be a dry, boring spring and summer.

Because had I waited till next spring to do it, there'd be enough rain and wind to make me regret waiting.

With you on this one. We are getting a deck put on and want dry conditions so that it can be done in a timely fashion and not like our neighbors last year which took over 2 weeks to finish because of so much rain.

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The Mid-Atlantic is terrible for winters. We get our big year once or twice a decade, but after that it sucks. Anyone expecting a lot of snow needs to move to the mountain west, upslope regions of the apps or to northern New England. We can't even do cold right in the MA. We're the king of moderating cold air masses in the U.S.

The all-or-nothing snowfall trend of the last 17 years may be due to climate change (though I have no proof) or it may just be a temporary blip. If you think this is representative of how winters around here have always been, you need to do some more research.

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I don't know about others, but I call average the 60-80% or a winter that has as little 12" seasonal to 20" seasonal (in upper Montgomery Co.). Granted I haven't put the numbers in and crunched the actual data, but DC certainly is on a longer run of "Suckyness" for winters (below 12" seasonally).

But that is enough about winter for a spring thread. I LOVED the weather today...but HATED that my departure from work went from my expected 3pm, to 4:30pm and that took away welding time (my way of enjoying the warmth outdoors now-a-days). New week I gear up for Cherry Blossom filming, but I'll save those details in the Cherry Blossoms thread.

Wonder what the chances are to push the time change even further up so that it starts March 1 and ends November 30? ;-)

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I don't know about others, but I call average the 60-80% or a winter that has as little 12" seasonal to 20" seasonal (in upper Montgomery Co.). Granted I haven't put the numbers in and crunched the actual data, but DC certainly is on a longer run of "Suckyness" for winters (below 12" seasonally).

But that is enough about winter for a spring thread. I LOVED the weather today...but HATED that my departure from work went from my expected 3pm, to 4:30pm and that took away welding time (my way of enjoying the warmth outdoors now-a-days). New week I gear up for Cherry Blossom filming, but I'll save those details in the Cherry Blossoms thread.

Wonder what the chances are to push the time change even further up so that it starts March 1 and ends November 30? ;-)

Using 12" as the cutoff for suckiness in DC, 18/32 winters since the 80-81 season have sucked. Climo average at DCA is 14.5 and since 80-81, 10 winters have been above average....7 with at least 50% above normal snowfall.

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Using 12" as the cutoff for suckiness in DC, 18/32 winters since the 80-81 season have sucked. Climo average at DCA is 14.5 and since 80-81, 10 winters have been above average....7 with at least 50% above normal snowfall.

Not not a bad threshold for DCA....maybe a tad high. Perhaps I should put it lower so that more like 70% of the season with snow are considered "good".

Sping has spung bitches

Ewwww
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Wow...if next week forcast for multiple 70°f days in a row, bookend by 60s. DAMN! I'm gonna put the bike on the roof and start hitting the trails early (I really, really need to get in shape).

I am not depressed long when I can go from winter to warm spring temps quickly!

Wonder how our drought variables and forecasts are looking with all this warm stuff. Not that an exact correlation exists.

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...

post-96-0-77553200-1331405394.gif

Year-to-date

DCA: -1.32" (79% of normal)

BWI: -1.15" (84% of normal)

IAD: -1.40" (78% of normal)

RIC: -1.17" (83% of normal)

The Northeast can survive with 70% of normal precip for a year, thats still not going to turn the area into a desert. We're not LA. I'm not saying your saying we are. I have a hard time remembering any big droughts in CT or DC. Every time it dries out for a few months the rain comes back with a vengence.

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The Northeast can survive with 70% of normal precip for a year, thats still not going to turn the area into a desert. We're not LA. I'm not saying your saying we are. I have a hard time remembering any big droughts in CT or DC. Every time it dries out for a few months the rain comes back with a vengence.

Agreed... just wanted to make sure people knew the real numbers for our region. 80% isn't quite normal but it's close enough... certainly not entering above normal territory. We would need one or two moderate rain events to get into above normal levels for the YTD.

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