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March Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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NAM's got nothing in the way of thunderstorms or showers tomorrow night. Keeps a weak line up in PA during the evening. Has one line go through early tomorrow morning before dawn. Temps well into the 70s :sun:

SPC's 5% risk for tomorrow confused me a bit... I mean yeah it's warm and a cold front's coming through but the LCLs are fairly high with the WSW/W downsloping surface winds. ML lapse rates are mediocre at best so you could manage some non-severe wind and hail IF you get the storms to form. Wind shear's not too great, either. I could see the 5% risk for hail, but I'd like to see a better wind profile first.

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55-56 downtown now. I wonder if we can crack 70 and what the record is for consecutive 70 degree days in March

Like every March record it seems, 1945 takes the cake. 9 in a row to close the month and 16/17 from the 15th forward.

# of 70+ days in March

1945 - 16

1921 - 12

1946 - 11

1907 - 10

As soon ago as March 2001 we had no 70° days.

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Sadly, the warm weather won't last. It is still March, after all. Wouldn't be all that surprising to see temperatures actually go below average towards the end of the month.

I disagree. Any "cool down" we get (which I seriously doubt will happen anyway) will just be to near-normal temperatures. This will be a top ten warmest March at BWI for sure.

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80 in March is a 40 % chance so not that big of a deal unless mid to upper 80s though warm for sure. 10-11 70 + in a row is nuts though

Bring it on. I've accepted this winter as a lost cause, so the next best thing is to skip the worthless 40s and rain and go straight to the 60-70s and sunny. I want to get as much of those in as possible before the miserable 90s and humidity show up.

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Bring it on. I've accepted this winter as a lost cause, so the next best thing is to skip the worthless 40s and rain and go straight to the 60-70s and sunny. I want to get as much of those in as possible before the miserable 90s and humidity show up.

Agree all the way with this. It was easy to write off winter as soon as early march was a winter no-show on the models during the last week of Feb.

I'm probably wrong but I have a hunch that this summer isn't going to be brutal at all. I think we may have a favorable pattern in July-Aug to keep the deathly bermuda high from being dominant.

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Agreed and thank God. Way too warm already. You probably have a decent chance (20-30%) at accumulating snow as well.

I like photographing different types of flowers and early spring flora, so I don't want it to get too warm too fast. Tulips and other flowers disappear quickly when we get early season heat. So I would mind a period of 60s for awhile.

In the 8 years we've lived up here, we've had three occasions where we've seen accumulating snow in April. One of those events was quite memorable, as we recorded 2-3 inches of accumulating snow, during daytime hours, in the second week of April. Latest snow event to accumulate that much that I've ever seen in this area, so it can and does happen. April snow would be fitting, given that our biggest snow event here was actually in October.

The average person is going to be shocked when these May temperatures drop back to March or late-February levels.

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Can we do 9 days in a row? Probably pretty hard. I say we do 6-7

The next 10+ days could very well be 70+ in addition to yesterday's... maybe even toss in a couple of 80+ highs.

The GFS has 11 in a row, but any ill-timed rain/clouds/S wind at DCA could lead to a 68° "bust". Or a Euro situation where we get stuck in some sort of easterly flow.

64.3

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I disagree. Any "cool down" we get (which I seriously doubt will happen anyway) will just be to near-normal temperatures. This will be a top ten warmest March at BWI for sure.

I agree that we are likely to see a top-10 warmest March, as this stretch of 70+ (with a couple of 80 degree days) won't be moderated much by a drop back to normal or below towards the end of the month. However, it's not out of the realm of possibility that we go below normal for at least a time as we get towards the end of March and into early April. Back in 1988, 1989 or 1990 (forget which year), while still in college, I remember a stretch of 3 or 4 days in March where we were in the upper-80s (Baltimore Harbor had temps recorded in the 90s). About a week later, we saw accumulating snow. Don't forget there is still a lot of very cold air in the northern hemisphere right now. Ocean temperatures are also still cold, so any type of easterly air flow will chill things significantly.

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