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March Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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This line doesn't look to be wasting too much time in getting here. Not much in the way of surface instability, but midlevel lapse rates are nice. as well as downdraft cape.

Mid level lapse rates are 7.5 to 8.0 C/KM... thats pretty good... but not much else is good

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Mid level lapse rates are 7.5 to 8.0 C/KM... thats pretty good... but not much else is good

Lapse rates usually never fail to deliver. Springfield MA event last year had that characteristic. We almost always failed in SNE without it. Least there is forcing and a bit of instability to work with. That cold pool is great too. Probably hail reports today.

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  • BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
    243 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...
    WESTERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...
    SOUTHWESTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
    SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...

Hail to quarter sized and winds in excess of 60 mph

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Latest runs of the RUC showing improved low-level directional shear in VA in the late afternoon to early evening via stronger 0-3km EHI values. However, with high LCLs up around 1500-2000m I wouldn't expect any storms to become tornadic, even if they do get some rotation. Should make for some hail-rific storms, though.

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