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March Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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Looking back at the index behavior this past winter really shows how the NAO overwhelmed any chance at winter. This winter as a whole will go down as a record + NAO winter. Here a good look at how stubborn the NAO was:

There are a couple recent years that are similar: 82-83, 93-94 (best match), 94-95, and 99-00. All 4 featured warm Marches except 94. 94 was just normal temp wise in the east during March.

Interestingly, 2 out of the 4 following Aprils were much below normal, one was normal, and one was pretty warm (1994). The composite of the 4 years looks like this:

It's hard to forecast anything other than a warm April because we haven't had a cooler than normal month since October but if we did have a cool April it really wouldn't surprise me. Not just because of what these analogs show either. I can't remember exact years but I've been duped into thinking warmth would be continuous in Spring only to be slapped by long stretches of dreary 50's.

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Looking back at the index behavior this past winter really shows how the NAO overwhelmed any chance at winter. This winter as a whole will go down as a record + NAO winter. Here a good look at how stubborn the NAO was:

There are a couple recent years that are similar: 82-83, 93-94 (best match), 94-95, and 99-00. All 4 featured warm Marches except 94. 94 was just normal temp wise in the east during March.

Interestingly, 2 out of the 4 following Aprils were much below normal, one was normal, and one was pretty warm (1994). The composite of the 4 years looks like this:

It's hard to forecast anything other than a warm April because we haven't had a cooler than normal month since October but if we did have a cool April it really wouldn't surprise me. Not just because of what these analogs show either. I can't remember exact years but I've been duped into thinking warmth would be continuous in Spring only to be slapped by long stretches of dreary 50's.

Bob,

Great analysis. Based on the best match (93-94), that is an interesting analog that produced a very cold winter for the eastern US even with a very positive +NAO in DJF. The big difference there was the intense consistant aluetian ridging. So i guess, NAO in conjunction with the WPO/EPO sealed the fate for this winter! Below is the upper air anomaly at 500 mb for that year:

compday.4.21.70.254.75.10.58.3.gif

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I've been offline for a few days, so this may have been mentioned: I see (according to the Baltimore Sunpaper) that the high temp in the US on 3/15/12 was 89 in Manassas, Va. Pretty unusual for the daily US high temp to be in our region.

Edit: Looks like the final update gave the daily honors to Laredo, Tx and Gila Bend, Az at 90. Oh well, maybe next time.

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