snowfan Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Overcast with a light breeze. Sitting at 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 NAM and GFS are pretty weak on the rain tomorrow for the immediate DC/Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Got a few isolated small thunderstorms down here this afternoon, but not much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Looking forward to an article on the prospects for April. Any red tagger working on one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Looking forward to an article on the prospects for April. Any red tagger working on one? Based on my analogs... normal to above normal temps and precip. with warm risks due to persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Come back sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 If the winds don't change direction, we will not get out of the 50s. Happened that way a few weeks ago, didn't it, the day where Richmond was over 80 and BWI struggled to get to the mid-50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 We might be screwed today ? Not sure how long we will stay in an easterly/northerly flow. The RUC and NAM have caught on to the slow start, but still methodically get us to 70 by later this afternoon. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 DCA high of 72, BWI 60? The HRRR actually keeps the batch of rain in WV together. If that happens, I don't think any of us will sniff 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Brrrrr....chilly and damp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Looking back at the index behavior this past winter really shows how the NAO overwhelmed any chance at winter. This winter as a whole will go down as a record + NAO winter. Here a good look at how stubborn the NAO was: There are a couple recent years that are similar: 82-83, 93-94 (best match), 94-95, and 99-00. All 4 featured warm Marches except 94. 94 was just normal temp wise in the east during March. Interestingly, 2 out of the 4 following Aprils were much below normal, one was normal, and one was pretty warm (1994). The composite of the 4 years looks like this: It's hard to forecast anything other than a warm April because we haven't had a cooler than normal month since October but if we did have a cool April it really wouldn't surprise me. Not just because of what these analogs show either. I can't remember exact years but I've been duped into thinking warmth would be continuous in Spring only to be slapped by long stretches of dreary 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I'm ready for a dreary 50 degree today. I'm not ready for the 80s. You got it. But just seems pretty sucky to me. Far prefer the 70s to this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Deck is thinning out downtown -- may be able to eke out a few hours of sunlight today if that moisture out west dissipates over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Deck is thinning out downtown -- may be able to eke out a few hours of sunlight today if that moisture out west dissipates over the mountains. Yeah, the sky is definitely brighter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 80s again next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjedi Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Looking back at the index behavior this past winter really shows how the NAO overwhelmed any chance at winter. This winter as a whole will go down as a record + NAO winter. Here a good look at how stubborn the NAO was: There are a couple recent years that are similar: 82-83, 93-94 (best match), 94-95, and 99-00. All 4 featured warm Marches except 94. 94 was just normal temp wise in the east during March. Interestingly, 2 out of the 4 following Aprils were much below normal, one was normal, and one was pretty warm (1994). The composite of the 4 years looks like this: It's hard to forecast anything other than a warm April because we haven't had a cooler than normal month since October but if we did have a cool April it really wouldn't surprise me. Not just because of what these analogs show either. I can't remember exact years but I've been duped into thinking warmth would be continuous in Spring only to be slapped by long stretches of dreary 50's. Bob, Great analysis. Based on the best match (93-94), that is an interesting analog that produced a very cold winter for the eastern US even with a very positive +NAO in DJF. The big difference there was the intense consistant aluetian ridging. So i guess, NAO in conjunction with the WPO/EPO sealed the fate for this winter! Below is the upper air anomaly at 500 mb for that year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I've been offline for a few days, so this may have been mentioned: I see (according to the Baltimore Sunpaper) that the high temp in the US on 3/15/12 was 89 in Manassas, Va. Pretty unusual for the daily US high temp to be in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I've been offline for a few days, so this may have been mentioned: I see (according to the Baltimore Sunpaper) that the high temp in the US on 3/15/12 was 89 in Manassas, Va. Pretty unusual for the daily US high temp to be in our region. Edit: Looks like the final update gave the daily honors to Laredo, Tx and Gila Bend, Az at 90. Oh well, maybe next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Brrrrr....chilly and damp. You're getting a taste of what we got yesterday...the original forecast high was to be 79, but it barely made it to a cold & damp, 62. Some sun finally today...ground is squishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 After a cool and cloudy start, the sun is starting to come out. Temp has warmed up to 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 http://www.myfoxdc.com/dpp/news/local/bad-smell-blanketing-the-dc-metro-area-031612 Smelled this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Sun is out in da 'Burg. Clouds to the ESE still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 0.04" and now I can see some blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 0.04" and now I can see some blue sky. These type of rains aren't gonna do it. Hope Ellinwood is correct about some moisture in April. 0.40" here for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Yes and before i read the link i thought that's what it might be. Those trees are just awful smelling at least on Thursday when I walked by five or so of them. Maybe it is the early bloom thanks a lot Se ridge. http://www.myfoxdc.c...tro-area-031612 Smelled this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 17, 2012 Author Share Posted March 17, 2012 Fog burned off a bit ago and now it is warming up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Fantastic day to be outside. 73.4 at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Edit: Looks like the final update gave the daily honors to Laredo, Tx and Gila Bend, Az at 90. Oh well, maybe next time. maybe next week someone in the est will mhit 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 Horizons a bit dirty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 what happened to HM? Winter crapped out and he dissappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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