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March Obs/Disco Thread


H2O

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Any chance for some severe Fri night into Saturday?

In the greater DC/MD region, there could be some gusty winds if we can get a decent line of storms to move through in the morning hours, but with the CAD in place ahead of this thing I don't see that much to get excited about.

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In the greater DC/MD region, there could be some gusty winds if we can get a decent line of storms to move through in the morning hours, but with the CAD in place ahead of this thing I don't see that much to get excited about.

How about the lower eastern shore?

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In the greater DC/MD region, there could be some gusty winds if we can get a decent line of storms to move through in the morning hours, but with the CAD in place ahead of this thing I don't see that much to get excited about.

Using Earl Barker soundings, 09z SAT looks kinda interesting on the 12z NAM around teh area. No SBCAPE, but there is a lil MLCAPE and good SRH. LI's -2ish and SUP potential is in the 60-70% range... so perhaps some damaging wind gusts?

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Using Earl Barker soundings, 09z SAT looks kinda interesting on the 12z NAM around teh area. No SBCAPE, but there is a lil MLCAPE and good SRH. LI's -2ish and SUP potential is in the 60-70% range... so perhaps some damaging wind gusts?

I think a low topped gusty line is the best you can hope for at this point. 09z in March is not exactly the most favorable time or time of year for seere :(

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Using Earl Barker soundings, 09z SAT looks kinda interesting on the 12z NAM around teh area. No SBCAPE, but there is a lil MLCAPE and good SRH. LI's -2ish and SUP potential is in the 60-70% range... so perhaps some damaging wind gusts?

The problem is you have to be able to mix those winds down to the surface, and with the kind of low-level temperature inversion we're looking at it'll be hard to bring severe-level gusts to the surface. Looking at the 12z NAM, the main squall line appears to outrun the cold front. That means that the strongest storms will probably not match up with the warmest surface temps, limiting the severe potential.

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Severe weather possible again in my neck of the woods tomorrow...similar to Wednesday. Moderate risk area is close enough. Timing is good for heating.

I was up in S. OH on business today and it was cloudy and pretty damn cold just across the border. I gained almost 20 degrees on the way home this afternoon...sunny and warm at the house.

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I'm hugging this until the 3 pm update:

THESE STEEP

LAPSE RATES AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LVL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO

PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON SUN. N AND W OF THE CITIES...DESPITE MAX

TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH ANY SHOWERS

WOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW GIVEN VERY DRY AIRMASS IN

SUB-CLOUD LAYER /A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO LAST SUN/.

Nah.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

1029 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTH CENTRAL KANAWHA COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

NORTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1028 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

MALLORY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOGAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT

55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

OCEANA...WHARTON...BALD KNOB...BURNWELL...MOUNT HOPE...POWELLTON

AND OAK HILL.

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Watch likely later this afternoon for western portions of WV

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0208

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1030 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN IND...NERN KY...MUCH OF OH AND

ADJACENT WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021630Z - 021800Z

A WATCH IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ONE

PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SPREADING

NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN ADVANCE

OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO

VALLEY...MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

WATCH ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO

INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE

CYCLONE...MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO

THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ADVECTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BECOME

NECESSARY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.

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