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March Observations and Discussions


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What's happening in Eastern NC? Looks like you're getting soaked, and it will continue throughout the morning. Any danger of flooding?

Negative on the flooding, creek level is up,some standing water in the ditches, but that is about it. Very beneficial -rn to moderate rn event spaced over >24hrs, ended up with >1.5", ~1.8" past 2 days, should help to put a dent in the drought index, but only for a period. Seeing some sun break through the clouds here, and to the west. 41/37 was all the bl could muster this am as the rn ended, have not seen any reports of flakes mixing in, doubt there were any. Warm up on tap this week, and noticing the bradford pears are starting to flower, love spring, very refreshing to see life return to the coastal plain after a dismal winter.

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The same is usually true for NE TN - though we can hold out a bit more hope but not much. Clippers almost always underperform at lower elevations here. It has to be really in the dead of winter for it to produce here. One problem is that models usually portray clippers far too south and then the clipper jogs north of projections. It's always bonus to get snow from clippers in Kingsport as the "rain shadow" from the Plateau almost always eats away at qpf. Same thing happens w/ thunderstorms. Now, Johnson City benefits from upsloping even thought they are just twenty miles to the east.

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This clipper could provide a surprise:

RAH just released this update:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ADJACENT VIRGINIA BORDERING COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM 4AM TO NOON MONDAY. OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AND WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRENGTHENING CLIPPER-TYPE SURFACE LOW ASSOC/W THE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TONIGHT WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER TO NEAR DANVILLE BY 12Z MONDAY AND WILL EXIT THE OUTER BANKS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...CAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. BY DAYBREAK...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING NEAR THE NC/VA TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS THE DEEPENING PV ANOMALY DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY AROUND DAYBREAK ALONG THE STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE EASTWARD MOVING SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TRACKING THE SFC LOW ALONG JUST NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 64...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH STRIPE OF LIQUID PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER...AND A SHARP DROP-OFF OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. THE FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL TIMING AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUPPORTS ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE...EXPECT TO SEE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND EXTREME NORTHERN/NE NC BETWEEN 12 TO 17Z. USING A CONSERVATIVE 11:1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...THIS WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADJACENT VIRGINIA BORDERING COUNTIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...ROUGHLY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPID. WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS DROPPING OFF SHARPLY NORTH TO SOUTH...AREAS NEAR THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...ALONG THE 64 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE...THAT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...AND ANY DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN LESS OR MORE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...IMPACTS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY ONLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

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Yeah my forecast sums up this winter perfectly.

Tonight: A slight chance of snow after 4am.

Not saying we'll get much, but for how warm it's been this is about the best chance for us to get a little more snow before spring comes in. (and) looking at the extended, it looks like spring will start after this cold shot.

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Lots of virga in the clouds this afternoon, but no sprinkles or flakes like some areas to the East of us.

I really wish KJNX would check their equipment. They're currently showing our DP at 10°, lowest in the entire state of NC, surrounded by mid 20's to low 30's.

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Lots of virga in the clouds this afternoon, but no sprinkles or flakes like some areas to the East of us.

I really wish KJNX would check their equipment. They're currently showing our DP at 10°, lowest in the entire state of NC, surrounded by mid 20's to low 30's.

10 is wrong. Currently 20 at RDU.

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Lots of virga in the clouds this afternoon, but no sprinkles or flakes like some areas to the East of us.

I really wish KJNX would check their equipment. They're currently showing our DP at 10°, lowest in the entire state of NC, surrounded by mid 20's to low 30's.

Shaggy just called me he was on his way out to dinner and saw several clouds that were producing snow....the temp on his truck while driving in the snow was 50......

I took a pic at the same time of the cloud from my house about 10 mile to the south it looked like a thunderstorm going up.....

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Shaggy just called me he was on his way out to dinner and saw several clouds that were producing snow....the temp on his truck while driving in the snow was 50......

I took a pic at the same time of the cloud from my house about 10 mile to the south it looked like a thunderstorm going up.....

It is all about the wet bulb!

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So close to mby Vann I could smell it. At least someone in Rutherford County got to see a little snow.......

Finally I can post a video of real snow at Otter Creek. Temp has dropped another 5 degrees to 41. Love those upslope events when there's enough wind to bring the flakes over the mountains.

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0.74" so far with this lates system. Boy, yesterday just felt raw with NE winds and temps hovering around 52f.

I :wub: to see you finally cashing in just a bit

Man, oh, man, have I been riding the trains lately. Got 1.5 last night thru this morning. Got 1.2 before that. I'm up over 7 inches now for the last 14 days. Everything is budding out and popping up. There will be rude surprise for the plant kingdom when winter finally comes back! Meanwhile, the sand dunes are eroding, the camel is no where to be seen, and I think the Swamp Creature might be moving around in the woods, lol. HooRay! T

Woooo Hooooo!!! That zpmbie mojo is kicking ;)

Frogs.... frogs everywhere! When I took my walk this morning, I found over 50 dead frogs in the road, but they had not been run over or partially eaten or anything like that. They were all light brown spotted frogs, with bodies 2 to 3 inches long. Each one showed signs of a violent death, so all I can figure is that they were sucked up into a storm by a tornado, and redeposited in this area when the heaviest cell blew through last night at about 9 p.m.. I was never aware of any hail in that cell, but it looks like SOMETHING was falling.... weird! I got 1.3 inches with the event. Very quiet today with the temp hovering around 54. Here's a pic from the woods this morning. With everything being wet, the colors were intensified. (Sorry, but the frogs were too grusome to photograph. The hail inside that storm really did a number on them.)

Poor frogs :(

Storm total 2.85" here. No severe weather despite a severe thunderstorm warning last night. This makes up for my skimpy 1.92" total in January.

:thumbsup: Wow!

Finally I can post a video of real snow at Otter Creek. Temp has dropped another 5 degrees to 41. Love those upslope events when there's enough wind to bring the flakes over the mountains.

SNOW! :wub:

My March total so far is up to 1.25 :wub:

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congrats to those who got snow. yesterday around 3pm, was outside and to my surprise saw a few flakes floating down in the wind. I'm 60 or so miles N of ATL, within site of the App Mtns, and the temp was mid to upper 40s. I think they were blowing in from some updrafts coming off the mtns. I'd be curious to see if motowx saw any.

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