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March Observations and Discussions


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We have had some significant tornado damage from the 2 tornadoes this morning in Madison County, AL. 1 was rain-wrapped.

Damage has been north of Huntsville, in the Harvest, Meridianville areas. Some of the same areas hit last year, April 27th.

Not looking forward to round 2 later today.

Sorry to hear about the damage. Y'all stay safe!

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Now the severe weather has pretty much passed, its' time to actually talk about the chance of snow for the lucky ones in the carolinas.

Even though surface temps start off warm, I would be shocked if a fairly large portion of eastern/southeast sc and eastern nc doesn't get snow tonight (saturday night/early sunday am).

The nam has been consistent with having copious and heavy precip over the eastern half of the carolinas tomorrow for a while and now the gfs is on board. Although surface temps start off warm, 40s, 850mb temps are cold..around -5c and freezing levels drop to around 950mb. Now in a lot of cases with surface temps this warm, this would still mean rain..but giving the timing, late night/early morning, how heavy the precip is and the dynamics involved, I expect a changeover over a sizable chunk of inland ne sc and eastern nc. Indeed, the gfs is picking up on this with surface temps crashing by 12z just inland of coastal sc and nc. Interestingly, the nam is colder aloft and warmer at the surface while the gfs is warmer aloft but colder at the surface.

Hard to say how much will fall right now but gfs/nam showing over one inch liquid along the coastal plain/coast of sc/nc. Not all of this will be snow though as it will take some time to cool surface temps for it to reach the surface..BUT between 06z and 12z is when things are interesting..especially after say 08 or 09z , nam/gfs are both in agreement of around 0.75 liquid falling in a 6 hour period and somewhere between 0.35/0.40 and as much as a half inch between 09z and 12z. Given the thermal profile/heavy precip rates, I think it changes over in some places by 09z so you are talking about some pretty hefty rates for a little while for coastal sc (especially NE sections) and eastern nc. Will be interesting to watch unfold because you can't just look at the surface temps this time and say "nope, too warm".

It figures, this area would be the one area to get a surprising snowfall in this winter...literally just a day after a severe weather outbreak with temps in the 70s :arrowhead:

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Thanks for the post lookout!

I Assumed "based in GSP forecast" that the rain and storms were going to hang on "imby" today. Guess not, which is cool because my son is turning 3 and we are headed to the local FD ( where his uncle is the chief) for a party !!

Now the severe weather has pretty much passed, its' time to actually talk about the chance of snow for the lucky ones in the carolinas.

Even though surface temps start off warm, I would be shocked if a fairly large portion of eastern/southeast sc and eastern nc doesn't get snow tonight (saturday night/early sunday am).

The nam has been consistent with having copious and heavy precip over the eastern half of the carolinas tomorrow for a while and now the gfs is on board. Although surface temps start off warm, 40s, 850mb temps are cold..around -5c and freezing levels drop to around 950mb. Now in a lot of cases with surface temps this warm, this would still mean rain..but giving the timing, late night/early morning, how heavy the precip is and the dynamics involved, I expect a changeover over a sizable chunk of inland ne sc and eastern nc. Indeed, the gfs is picking up on this with surface temps crashing by 12z just inland of coastal sc and nc. Interestingly, the nam is colder aloft and warmer at the surface while the gfs is warmer aloft but colder at the surface.

Hard to say how much will fall right now but gfs/nam showing over one inch liquid along the coastal plain/coast of sc/nc. Not all of this will be snow though as it will take some time to cool surface temps for it to reach the surface..BUT between 06z and 12z is when things are interesting..especially after say 08 or 09z , nam/gfs are both in agreement of around 0.75 liquid falling in a 6 hour period and somewhere between 0.35/0.40 and as much as a half inch between 09z and 12z. Given the thermal profile/heavy precip rates, I think it changes over in some places by 09z so you are talking about some pretty hefty rates for a little while for coastal sc (especially NE sections) and eastern nc. Will be interesting to watch unfold because you can't just look at the surface temps this time and say "nope, too warm".

It figures, this area would be the one area to get a surprising snowfall in this winter...literally just a day after a severe weather outbreak with temps in the 70s :arrowhead:

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Just had a tornado blow through.

I don't see any tornado reports, only wind damage with trees/antenna down in Lexington Co. CAE only shows a wind gust at that time of 22mph, but I know it was much higher than that here in the southern part of Lexington Co. My flowers have been flattened along with a couple of bushes :(

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I don't see any tornado reports, only wind damage with trees/antenna down in Lexington Co. CAE only shows a wind gust at that time of 22mph, but I know it was much higher than that here in the southern part of Lexington Co. My flowers have been flattened along with a couple of bushes :(

lol... busted.

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Thanks for the post lookout!

I Assumed "based in GSP forecast" that the rain and storms were going to hang on "imby" today. Guess not, which is cool because my son is turning 3 and we are headed to the local FD ( where his uncle is the chief) for a party !!

Happy birthday to your son!

Forgot to mention, I've picked up 1.35 inches so far with a bit more to come. Will be happy to pick up 1.50 inches, though I know some picked up a lot more. . I got up at 4:45 am this morning but missed an apparently strong line of storms by a half hour or so. On radar, it looked pretty strong. No idea how I slept through it since I always wake up early and am easily woken up. Rats.

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For those of you with more experience with soundings, would this be a very heavy, wet snow for the location of this sounding or just heavy rain? This is during the time where the models drop .50 to .60 with this sounding in a 3-6 hour period of time. It looks like it would be a heavy wet snow as the column is below freezing from 975mb up and the surface is around 36 so with heavy precip rates the colder air would mix down better and also I would think overcome the very shallow warm layer? Thoughts? This could be an interesting eastern NC storm which gives a rare beach snow as well!

NAM_218_2012030312_F27_35.5000N_77.0000W.png

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For those of you with more experience with soundings, would this be a very heavy, wet snow for the location of this sounding or just heavy rain? This is during the time where the models drop .50 to .60 with this sounding in a 3-6 hour period of time. It looks like it would be a heavy wet snow as the column is below freezing from 975mb up and the surface is around 36 so with heavy precip rates the colder air would mix down better and also I would think overcome the very shallow warm layer? Thoughts? This could be an interesting eastern NC storm which gives a rare beach snow as well!

NAM_218_2012030312_F27_35.5000N_77.0000W.png

That is a classic wet snow sounding if the precip rates are moderate or greater.

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Now the severe weather has pretty much passed, its' time to actually talk about the chance of snow for the lucky ones in the carolinas.

Even though surface temps start off warm, I would be shocked if a fairly large portion of eastern/southeast sc and eastern nc doesn't get snow tonight (saturday night/early sunday am).

The nam has been consistent with having copious and heavy precip over the eastern half of the carolinas tomorrow for a while and now the gfs is on board. Although surface temps start off warm, 40s, 850mb temps are cold..around -5c and freezing levels drop to around 950mb. Now in a lot of cases with surface temps this warm, this would still mean rain..but giving the timing, late night/early morning, how heavy the precip is and the dynamics involved, I expect a changeover over a sizable chunk of inland ne sc and eastern nc. Indeed, the gfs is picking up on this with surface temps crashing by 12z just inland of coastal sc and nc. Interestingly, the nam is colder aloft and warmer at the surface while the gfs is warmer aloft but colder at the surface.

Hard to say how much will fall right now but gfs/nam showing over one inch liquid along the coastal plain/coast of sc/nc. Not all of this will be snow though as it will take some time to cool surface temps for it to reach the surface..BUT between 06z and 12z is when things are interesting..especially after say 08 or 09z , nam/gfs are both in agreement of around 0.75 liquid falling in a 6 hour period and somewhere between 0.35/0.40 and as much as a half inch between 09z and 12z. Given the thermal profile/heavy precip rates, I think it changes over in some places by 09z so you are talking about some pretty hefty rates for a little while for coastal sc (especially NE sections) and eastern nc. Will be interesting to watch unfold because you can't just look at the surface temps this time and say "nope, too warm".

It figures, this area would be the one area to get a surprising snowfall in this winter...literally just a day after a severe weather outbreak with temps in the 70s :arrowhead:

I'm cautiously optimistic about this one. If the models are overdoing the cold air upstairs we get busted and end up all rain. On the flip side if they are right and we get these heavier rates we could be in for some really good snow and maybe a couple of inches if the rates hold up.

Best part of this is there wasn't much time to dwell on model flip flops and waiting around for the euro every night. I have no expectations so if it busts then oh well on to fishing season for me!

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Is it close enough to start a thread ? It was mentioned by (Weather NC) but not one has touched it. I'm not the person to start one ( Don't want to jinx it ) But I'm hoping someone will step up to the plate.

Lookng at the new 12z NAM and GFS and they look like a big snow for for central and eastern NC (and maybe SC). But somebody bring me down and tell me why this is not true (i.e. surface temps, etc.).

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Folks,

The 0Z Doc has hard freezes for much of the inland SE and 32 all the way to the Carolina coast 3/11-2. It has 850's down to an incredibly cold (for mid March) -11C at KATL and -8C on the Carolina coast to KSAV. Is the 0Z Doc on crack? I say it is as the prior run was nothing like this, its ensemble mean is only barely below normal, and no Goofy has had anything close to a cold shot then. Moreover, it doesn't fit the pattern at all. I expect a much warmer 12Z doc.

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Man, oh, man, have I been riding the trains lately. Got 1.5 last night thru this morning. Got 1.2 before that. I'm up over 7 inches now for the last 14 days. Everything is budding out and popping up. There will be rude surprise for the plant kingdom when winter finally comes back! Meanwhile, the sand dunes are eroding, the camel is no where to be seen, and I think the Swamp Creature might be moving around in the woods, lol. HooRay! T

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Frogs.... frogs everywhere! When I took my walk this morning, I found over 50 dead frogs in the road, but they had not been run over or partially eaten or anything like that. They were all light brown spotted frogs, with bodies 2 to 3 inches long. Each one showed signs of a violent death, so all I can figure is that they were sucked up into a storm by a tornado, and redeposited in this area when the heaviest cell blew through last night at about 9 p.m.. I was never aware of any hail in that cell, but it looks like SOMETHING was falling.... weird! I got 1.3 inches with the event. Very quiet today with the temp hovering around 54. Here's a pic from the woods this morning. With everything being wet, the colors were intensified. (Sorry, but the frogs were too grusome to photograph. The hail inside that storm really did a number on them.)

post-1004-0-56424100-1330793586.jpg

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