tornadotony Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Many of the high-res models (the ARW and NMM, the NSSL-WRF, and that 4-km grid of the NAM posted earlier), indicate a string of pearls the length of Indiana tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm surprised they didn't go high, but that is a very strongly worded moderate. For all who are chasing or living in these areas tomorrow, stay safe and good luck! Yeah they left themselves a lot of wiggle room to put in a high, which I would expect by 1300Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Lovin' the northward extention of the slight risk... HRRR has an area of 2000 MUCAPE making it all the way up to central IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm still rather lukewarm on the tornado outbreak potential of this event, given the progged veered surface winds across much of the warm sector, particularly over the southern half of the moderate risk area. Models have generally underdone the backing of the surface winds over the warm sector in quite a few past events, although I'm not so sure the trough evolution and the banana-shaped surface trough supports such a backing of the surface winds this time around. Surface obs and high resolution models tomorrow will hopefully resolve this issue. Regardless, the high wind threat may well be the main story with this event, and it might be substantial enough to warrant a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm still rather lukewarm on the tornado outbreak potential of this event, given the progged veered surface winds across much of the warm sector, particularly over the southern half of the moderate risk area. Models have generally underdone the backing of the surface winds over the warm sector in quite a few past events, although I'm not so sure the trough evolution and the banana-shaped surface trough supports such a backing of the surface winds this time around. Surface obs and high resolution models tomorrow will hopefully resolve this issue. Regardless, the high wind threat may well be the main story with this event, and it might be substantial enough to warrant a high risk. +1, I've been feeling this way about the event all day but never got the time (or the words) to express it. Things can change though and everyone will (as they should) be on their toes tomorrow now/near-casting the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=KLAF The 00z NAM forecast sounding for Lafayette, IN is impressive from a low CAPE, very high shear (34 kt 0-1 km shear, 225 m2/s2 0-1 helicity) perspective at 21z. In addition, the 0-3 km CAPE is 140 j/kg, which is where you'd want the CAPE in this set-up. Though the potential for severe is certainly higher farther southeast, can't rule it out in the far east central IL, west central Indiana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KLAF The 00z NAM forecast sounding for Lafayette, IN is impressive from a low CAPE, very high shear (34 kt 0-1 km shear, 225 m2/s2 0-1 helicity) perspective at 21z. In addition, the 0-3 km CAPE is 140 j/kg, which is where you'd want the CAPE in this set-up. Though the potential for severe is certainly higher farther southeast, can't rule it out in the far east central IL, west central Indiana area. You're reading my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looks like a pretty scary set-up for tomorrow. Would not be surprised at all if we see at least one PDS Watch as well as a high risk in the morning. Looks like Harrisburg, IL is right in the line of fire again. Hope they're spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Long hodograph anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Long hodograph anyone? I know this is for KIND, but what time? I should arrive near Indy just after 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I know this is for KIND, but what time? I should arrive near Indy just after 1PM That is valid 4 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 You're reading my mind. That's what had me concerned at work today, the extreme wind fields with this system, plus the low, but present CAPE. For a presentation back in November, I took a look at the SPC Mesoanalysis archive for the 10/26/10 tornadoes in the LOT CWA. The RUC actually analyzed 0 CAPE (which had to be underdone), but we still had those 4 tornadoes. Just shows what extreme shear parameters can do. The SOO a few days ago also mentioned his concern in this set-up for gravity waves propagating northeast, which could aid low level rotation like the May 25 2011 tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I know this is for KIND, but what time? I should arrive near Indy just after 1PM Says valid 21z Friday, which would be 4 PM/3 CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 That is valid 4 PM Thanks Hoosier. Looks like I will be past Indy by that time. What are you thinking for Seymour right now? I know you can't predict if we will actually see a tornado but we are in a peculiar situation tomorrow huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 That's what had me concerned at work today, the extreme wind fields with this system, plus the low, but present CAPE. For a presentation back in November, I took a look at the SPC Mesoanalysis archive for the 10/26/10 tornadoes in the LOT CWA. The RUC actually analyzed 0 CAPE (which had to be underdone), but we still had those 4 tornadoes. Just shows what extreme shear parameters can do. The SOO a few days ago also mentioned his concern in this set-up for gravity waves propagating northeast, which could aid low level rotation like the May 25 2011 tornadoes. Yep, quite familiar with the 25 May case, and I could definitely see it happening, especially with the rapidly deepening low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thanks Hoosier. Looks like I will be past Indy by that time. What are you thinking for Seymour right now? I know you can't predict if we will actually see a tornado but we are in a peculiar situation tomorrow huh? Yeah, you're basically in a prime threat area. That's all that can be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yep, quite familiar with the 25 May case, and I could definitely see it happening, especially with the rapidly deepening low. Regarding the outlooks, May 25th didn't have a high (or a mention of a high) at 06z, but ended up being the largest high risk in area covered of all of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 5/25/11 sucked from a chasing perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Probably going to get a severe t-storm watch down here ahead of the strong warm advection tonight. Should mostly be elevated cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Latest RUC has due south to backing SSE in the sfc winds by 15z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Probably going to get a severe t-storm watch down here ahead of the strong warm advection tonight. Should mostly be elevated cells. Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 54 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-029-037-039-051-053-055-057-059-065- 071-073-077-083-085-089-097-099-101-105-107-109-113-125-131-135- 139-141-151-159-161-163-167-169-183-185-186-187-189-195-215-217- 219-221-225-229-510-021300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0054.120302T0810Z-120302T1300Z/ MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CASS CEDAR COLE COOPER CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JASPER JEFFERSON JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE PETTIS PHELPS PIKE POLK PULASKI SALINE ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE TEXAS VERNON WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER WRIGHT MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ST. LOUIS CITY $$ ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Latest RUC has due south to backing SSE in the sfc winds by 15z... What does that mean??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What does that mean??? Better chance for tornadoes. 0-3 km and 0-1 km SRH are both through the roof on the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Interesting to note how far N that watch is, and how far N the last system was compared to what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The lowering heights per mesoanalysis suggests that more a west solution may end up verifying with regards to track of the primary surface low, perhaps up towards Chicago or somewhere in that vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinicity Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 First severe thunderstorm warning just went up north of Springfield, MO for quarter size hail. Storm topping out at about 37,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The lowering heights per mesoanalysis suggests that more a west solution may end up verifying with regards to track of the primary surface low, perhaps up towards Chicago or somewhere in that vicinity. It's the RUC/HRRR vs the world regarding track. Every model besides them take the low into MI later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 These images make more sense - not sure what happened earlier on that other post. That was the image posted - but something messed up. Anyway - here is the new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Interesting AFD out of KPAH - they think SPC moved the moderate to deal with morning convection vs the afternoon subject. Warnings are being issued well into Kentucky already - central Kentucky for hail storms. Latest surface pressure map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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