andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Impressive stuff. Scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Although, HRRR shows a lot of morning convection: Not that I expect that to limit instability much at all, given the strength of the WAA associated with this. Thing is: I) That is at 7 in the morning and convection is already moving out of W TN and NW MS. II) Means possible boundary interaction for storms later, with localized low level shear increase. III) There is virtually nothing in KY, other than the storms along the OH River itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Sfc low down to 996mb in central/western OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Surface low down to about 996 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I guess I wouldn't be too surprised either way. I like being cautious but the setup is concerning. I'd never say that so and so is going to see this, but Indiana hasn't had an F4 since 1998 and there's definitely a nonzero threat of that tomorrow. The significant widespread damaging wind threat only adds to the already substantial tornado threat. That, and the lack of early morning convection lead me to believe an early upgrade to high is quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to chase tomorrow. Terrain from far Eastern IL through C. Indiana and into West-Central Ohio is decent. Storm motions of 50+mph could be an issue, but it's not a deal breaker. My main concern is how early convection will play out and the affect it will have on later potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Surface low down to about 996 mb How's it looking for that Oklahoma City mark you were talking about earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Surface low down to about 996 mb How is the placement looking compared to the 12z runs today? Edit: hm8 read my mind. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Although, HRRR shows a lot of morning convection: Not that I expect that to limit instability much at all, given the strength of the WAA associated with this. Thing is: I) That is at 7 in the morning and convection is already moving out of W TN and NW MS. II) Means possible boundary interaction for storms later, with localized low level shear increase. III) There is virtually nothing in KY, other than the storms along the OH River itself. Certainly some scattered convection, but nothing highly organized. I don't think this will have a negative impact on subsequent convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 How's it looking for that Oklahoma City mark you were talking about earlier? Looks like it will probably pass north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to chase tomorrow.Terrain from far Eastern IL through C. Indiana and into West-Central Ohio is decent. Storm motions of 50+mph could be an issue, but it's not a deal breaker. My main concern is how early convection will play out and the affect it will have on later potential. I don't know if your highest threat area will offer terrain worthy of chasing. Once you get below 70 it's he'll. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to get chased tomorrow. FYP, storms going to be hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 How is the placement looking compared to the 12z runs today? Edit: hm8 read my mind. Sent from my iPad HD Track wise I think it is about as progged. I'm thinking it may be a bit more intense at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 You can see where its going to track in the near-term with the lowering heights to its NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I don't know if your highest threat area will offer terrain worthy of chasing. Once you get below 70 it's he'll. Sent from my iPad HD Yeah, only west and NWOH offer decent terrain here... very few large cities excluding Lima and Dayton here, and the same for most of IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 New Day 1 should be out in 10 or so... but I am thinking mod risk with wording of upgrade to high risk possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 You can see where its going to track in the near-term with the lowering heights to its NE. I'll be sure to wave when it's in my neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MOD RISK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MOD RISK expanded back to the north and west. Wow. Even mentioning a severe squall line as far north as Southern Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 15% hatched covers a large area, as well as the 45% wind/hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 PM CST THU MAR 01 2012 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... ...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES... A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ACROSS IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO NRN AL/MS. AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 15% hatched covers a large area, as well as the 45% wind/hail threat. Wind and hail above... here is TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Highest possible MDT risk, 15% tornado sig-hatched, 45% hail/wind sig-hatched. Considering the size of it, I'd say a high is fairly likely once a few more details can be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 But look at the geographically huge slight risk...Wow! All of Indiana and much of se MI as well as areas deep in Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm surprised they didn't go high, but that is a very strongly worded moderate. For all who are chasing or living in these areas tomorrow, stay safe and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 My prediction, at least one PDS watch across the Kentucky/Tennessee area tomorrow, after a high risk upgrade tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I must admit the timing for this event is going to be quite bad for a large area of high populations... school traffic and rush hour traffic will be affected pretty greatly if timing holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Impressive LI values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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