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March 2 Severe Potential and Observations


Indystorm

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Although, HRRR shows a lot of morning convection:

6799505708_231388afd9_b.jpg

Not that I expect that to limit instability much at all, given the strength of the WAA associated with this.

Thing is:

I) That is at 7 in the morning and convection is already moving out of W TN and NW MS.

II) Means possible boundary interaction for storms later, with localized low level shear increase.

III) There is virtually nothing in KY, other than the storms along the OH River itself.

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I guess I wouldn't be too surprised either way. I like being cautious but the setup is concerning. I'd never say that so and so is going to see this, but Indiana hasn't had an F4 since 1998 and there's definitely a nonzero threat of that tomorrow.

The significant widespread damaging wind threat only adds to the already substantial tornado threat. That, and the lack of early morning convection lead me to believe an early upgrade to high is quite likely.

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I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to chase tomorrow.

Terrain from far Eastern IL through C. Indiana and into West-Central Ohio is decent. Storm motions of 50+mph could be an issue, but it's not a deal breaker.

My main concern is how early convection will play out and the affect it will have on later potential.

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Although, HRRR shows a lot of morning convection:

6799505708_231388afd9_b.jpg

Not that I expect that to limit instability much at all, given the strength of the WAA associated with this.

Thing is:

I) That is at 7 in the morning and convection is already moving out of W TN and NW MS.

II) Means possible boundary interaction for storms later, with localized low level shear increase.

III) There is virtually nothing in KY, other than the storms along the OH River itself.

Certainly some scattered convection, but nothing highly organized. I don't think this will have a negative impact on subsequent convection.

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I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to chase tomorrow.

Terrain from far Eastern IL through C. Indiana and into West-Central Ohio is decent. Storm motions of 50+mph could be an issue, but it's not a deal breaker.

My main concern is how early convection will play out and the affect it will have on later potential.

I don't know if your highest threat area will offer terrain worthy of chasing. Once you get below 70 it's he'll.

Sent from my iPad HD

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I don't know if your highest threat area will offer terrain worthy of chasing. Once you get below 70 it's he'll.

Sent from my iPad HD

Yeah, only west and NWOH offer decent terrain here... very few large cities excluding Lima and Dayton here, and the same for most of IN

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1142 PM CST THU MAR 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL

GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS

MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY...SWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

A VERY STRONG JET CORE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS

OF 110KT AS IT OVERSPREADS SRN MO INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER TODAY.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL OK EARLY THIS

MORNING WILL TRACK NEWD AND DEEPEN OVER MO INTO CNTRL IL BY MID DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RECOVERING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN OK ATTM

WITH 60F DEW POINTS NOW SPREADING NORTH OF I-40. THIS MOISTURE

SURGE WILL ADVECT INTO MO BY SUNRISE AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS

EXPECTED TO INDUCE MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AHEAD OF SFC LOW

ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION NEWD

WITH RECOVERING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SEVERE WARM ADVECTION STORMS TO

SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL

LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT EARLY...A FEW TORNADOES ARE

POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS MOISTENS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY BOUNDARY

LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF SFC COLD

FRONT AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z

ACROSS IL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN IL

SUGGEST MUCAPE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN AN

OTHERWISE VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS PRE-FRONTAL

CONVECTION SHOULD THEN EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS

IND/KY BEFORE DEVELOPING SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS TN INTO

NRN AL/MS.

AFTER THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/OH

VALLEY REGION...THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES

AFTER 18Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN

PLACE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO

POSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT FORM

ACROSS THE MOIST WARM SECTOR. WITH TIME A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE

COULD EMERGE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.

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