weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Isnt the hrrr/ruc/18z nam a bit further nw than lansing? Coulda sworn it was. 18Z NAM and GFS are basically dead on Lansing on today run. HRRR only goes out 15 hours. SLP not in MI yet. RUC goes out 24 hours. SLP just entering SW MI at the time. May go west of Lansing (looks like it would be west but not a ton). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18Z NAM and GFS are basically dead on Lansing on today run. HRRR only goes out 15 hours. SLP not in MI yet. RUC goes out 24 hours. SLP just entering SW MI at the time. May go west of Lansing (looks like it would be west but not a ton). Usually this time of year the warm front would hang up at the border because of the cold lake erie/huron effect. Dont see that happening this time, though. I'd say that a track west of lansing would put us near the triple point, though. A slight risk is probably warranted if there is explosive development of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Usually this time of year the warm front would hang up at the border because of the cold lake erie/huron effect. Dont see that happening this time, though. I'd say that a track west of lansing would put us near the triple point, though. A slight risk is probably warranted if there is explosive development of the low. This is a hard area to get great severe weather events in April let alone beginning of March. We'll see but I am very hesitant for anything severe. It happens but it is pretty rare in March here. I would like to just get a decent t-storm out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This is a hard area to get great severe weather events in April let alone beginning of March. We'll see but I am very hesitant for anything severe. It happens but it is pretty rare in March here. I would like to just get a decent t-storm out of it. Agreed. Wasnt a typical michigan winter though. Wonder if the lack of ice on the lakes/lack of snowcover will make a difference for us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Agreed. Wasnt a typical michigan winter though. Wonder if the lack of ice on the lakes/lack of snowcover will make a difference for us this year. I really think it will if thing stay on the + side. But with a storm like this I would prefer a low tracking west of Chicago for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This is a hard area to get great severe weather events in April let alone beginning of March. We'll see but I am very hesitant for anything severe. It happens but it is pretty rare in March here. I would like to just get a decent t-storm out of it. Keep in mind we've had a top-notch severe event here in March before... an F4 tornado on March 20th in Bloomfield Hills I believe. So a severe event including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado which doesn't even hold a candle to F4's are totally possible this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Keep in mind we've had a top-notch severe event here in March before... an F4 tornado on March 20th in Bloomfield Hills I believe. So a severe event including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado which doesn't even hold a candle to F4's are totally possible this time of year. Yes. I did not say it was impossible as I did say it is possible but it is rare. MI is not the state you go for severe weather events much before May. Yes they happen but it is not common. Most of my best severe weather events come in Late May into July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 As always, track of the low pressure is key with IWX thinking posted above. This would place greater svr chances south of I-70 in IN and into western OH. dependent of course on instability with my thinking that the greatest chances will be from the Cincinnati area southwestward in our subforum region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm here in Nashville tomorrow but am equally concerned for family back home in western Ohio. Hopefully this doesn't perform as advertised, but that seems hard to believe, given current parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 NAM going south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannie Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Would that mean Louisville wouldn't get hit as hard if the NAM ones south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 FWIW, the surface low in se CO earlier today at 997 has moved se and is currently a broad area of 1000 mb over the TX panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Interesting changes on this - I like this product - but sure has changed in this new run Compared to the old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Interesting changes on this - I like this product - but sure has changed in this new run Compared to the old run Interesting. Low placement is further north on the new run, but tornado parameters don't look as favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Paducah, KY Multi-media presentation has been posted http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=webbriefing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Appears to lessen the tornadic threat and move it much farther southeast, but don't know that I necessarily buy this run. The low is still 988 mb and deepening over Michiana at 00z Sat. The track seems awkward. It moves to the MS river and into Illinois then hooks left almost 45 degrees to head up to Michiana. Odd. The low was stronger at 995 on the old run but now in the new run it is 988 but sig tor is lower. Perhaps low level moisture advection is progged to be less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Appears to lessen the tornadic threat and move it much farther southeast, but don't know that I necessarily buy this run. The low is still 988 mb and deepening over Michiana at 00z Sat. The track seems awkward. It moves to the MS river and into Illinois then hooks left almost 45 degrees to head up to Michiana. Odd. The low was stronger at 995 on the old run but now in the new run it is 988 but sig tor is lower. Perhaps low level moisture advection is progged to be less? Seems to match more of the CIPS GFS analogs. hhhmmmm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Appears to lessen the tornadic threat and move it much farther southeast, but don't know that I necessarily buy this run. The low is still 988 mb and deepening over Michiana at 00z Sat. The track seems awkward. It moves to the MS river and into Illinois then hooks left almost 45 degrees to head up to Michiana. Odd. The low was stronger at 995 on the old run but now in the new run it is 988 but sig tor is lower. Perhaps low level moisture advection is progged to be less? Looking at instability progs, that doesn't look like an issue. Wait a sec, aren't the STI maps there valid at two different times on Friday? One looks like its progged for 00z and the other looks like 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 As I mentioned earlier, watch Oklahoma City. If it goes north of there, it might be more likely to end up on the northern side of the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Nashville is certainly bullish for their area on significant severe, but this may have been before tonight's new NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looking at instability progs, that doesn't look like an issue. Wait a sec, aren't the STI maps there valid at two different times on Friday? One looks like its progged for 00z and the other looks like 21z. Yeah, the times don't match on those images that Beau posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Just doing a quick analysis, it would appear that our surface low is somewhere around the east-central TX panhandle/western OK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Have been watching this for several days develop and was considering maybe chasing the Eastern half of Indiana and into Western Ohio but I don't like what I am now seeing on the NAM tonight. If the NAM is correct I don't think there will be enough instability to support supercells because the 500 MB winds are so strong (100 knots) that the updrafts will be cut off over Eastern IN and into Western OH. The NAM is keeping things not as unstable due to morning precip and cloud cover over IN. The storm speeds will be 60-65 mph and it will be extremely difficult to keep up if any supercells can actually develop across that area.. The best areas should be over East Central KY SW into TN as there will be more instability to work with as the NAM is showing 2000-2500 sbcape. I am not going to venture into Central KY and TN because I can't justify myself going that far when the terrain and road network is terrible and 50 mph storm movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Look at the sfc winds backing in response to that lead anomaly ahead of the primary sfc cyclone on the image Indystorm posted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Have been watching this for several days develop and was considering maybe chasing the Eastern half of Indiana and into Western Ohio but I don't like what I am now seeing on the NAM tonight. If the NAM is correct I don't think there will be enough instability to support supercells because the 500 MB winds are so strong (100 knots) that the updrafts will be cut off over Eastern IN and into Western OH. The NAM is keeping things not as unstable due to morning precip and cloud cover over IN. The storm speeds will be 60-65 mph and it will be extremely difficult to keep up if any supercells can actually develop across that area.. The best areas should be over East Central KY SW into TN as there will be more instability to work with as the NAM is showing 2000-2500 sbcape. I am not going to venture into Central KY and TN because I can't justify myself going that far when the terrain and road network is terrible and 50 mph storm movement. I am always concerned with left over a left over cloud deck from earlier in the day. It seems to happen a lot and with the low moving more southeast, I think we may bust on the discrete cells and just have the usual squall line as the front moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I am always concerned with left over a left over cloud deck from earlier in the day. It seems to happen a lot and with the low moving more southeast, I think we may bust on the discrete cells and just have the usual squall line as the front moves through. I might be wrong but I'm not seeing a southeastward move on the NAM. The surface low track is practically identical to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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