Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18z NAM is 11 - count it, 11 - millibars deeper with the surface low at 30 hours vs the old run at 36. Track is not very different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 In addition to watching the RUC overnight it will be fun to watch the progression of synoptic parameters. Current 1000 mb low located over se CO with pressure falls extending east to the Ozarks then curving ne as progged. Huge area of clear skies from eastern CO plains to central IN. 55-60 dews are at southern Arkansas in the Mississippi Valley at this 3 p.m. EST hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 18z NAM is 11 - count it, 11 - millibars deeper with the surface low at 30 hours vs the old run at 36. Track is not very different though. With that kind of deepening, you would expect a little more in the way of ageostrophic flow. More backed winds ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NCEP http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller HRRR is also stronger/northwest Which HRRR are you looking at I like this link http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=full&run_time=01+Mar+2012+-+16Z But you must be looking at another domain/run Link? PAH and MEG conference calls - ton of uncertainty as to how this unfolds. Sounds like most forecasters are on the same page - as far as initiation point. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 With that kind of deepening, you would expect a little more in the way of ageostrophic flow. More backed winds ahead of the system. Yep - The wind fields are quite a bit strong on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Back to absolutely sick soundings off the 18z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Back to absolutely sick soundings off the 18z NAM! Good lord at some of the soundings I'm seeing. Many of them would easily be environments capable of strong/violent tornadoes, very long, curved hodographs, and moderate instability along with the powerful mid level jet streak just scream a potentially significant outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Which HRRR are you looking at I like this link http://rapidrefresh....+Mar+2012+-+16Z But you must be looking at another domain/run Link? PAH and MEG conference calls - ton of uncertainty as to how this unfolds. Sounds like most forecasters are on the same page - as far as initiation point. Thanks yeah that link isn't working for me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Which HRRR are you looking at I like this link http://rapidrefresh....+Mar+2012+-+16Z But you must be looking at another domain/run Link? PAH and MEG conference calls - ton of uncertainty as to how this unfolds. Sounds like most forecasters are on the same page - as far as initiation point. Thanks try this http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Back to absolutely sick soundings off the 18z NAM! Yeah, it was pretty likely that the NAM kind of over-compensated with the 12z run. Basically all hi-res models go stronger/NW which puts the greatest risk along and south of I-70. Certainly worth a High Risk for much of Central OH/IN and south/southeast of there, Moderate risk might be extended further north, somewhat of a FWA to FDY line, if not even a little further north. It looks like the greatest strong Tornado threat is from Kentucky to I-70, over 40kts of Sfc. to 850mb shear. Anytime you mix Moderate instability with a 70-90kt flow, usually a severe threat is going to be pretty high. If modeled timing pans out, it's going to be an ugly rush hour traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LMK doesn't seem as bullish in their latest AFD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 try this http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus Not working for me, looks like you will be posting maps tonight as you are the only one that the site works with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Not working for me, looks like you will be posting maps tonight as you are the only one that the site works with I'm having no problem using this link: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Not sure if that helps at all, but at least more than one person can access it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm having no problem using this link: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ Not sure if that helps at all, but at least more than one person can access it today. Yeah that isn't working either, must just hate us Michiganders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LMK doesn't seem as bullish in their latest AFD... Eh, I've noticed this one guy tends to not play up things very much... still, I don't see where they've really calmed down much other than the addition of the mention of E KY/TN being the prime threat region... which I find a bit confusing considering latest model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It is long range for the RUC... but hour 22-24 has the warm front approaching the MI/IN border, 50s up to I-80 by 18z. Generally about 5-10 degrees warmer, especially in the northern part of the warm sector, with a sub 990mb low much further NW with the SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Why is it that during big events the SPC WRF does not update. Seems to happen a lot. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 LAF area east/se to Cincinnati then down I-75 to TN has highest STP above 7 per 18z NAM at 2100 hrs Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 It is long range for the RUC... but hour 22-24 has the warm front approaching the MI/IN border, 50s up to I-80 by 18z. Generally about 5-10 degrees warmer, especially in the northern part of the warm sector, with a sub 990mb low much further NW with the SLP. Yep...NAM has 988 mb low over Michiana at 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LAF area east/se to Cincinnati then down I-75 to TN has highest STP above 7 per 18z NAM at 2100 hrs Friday. That's a pretty big area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Usually a lot of uncertainties in convective forecasting 24 hours out, but if I were a betting man I would bet on more than 20 tornadoes tomorrow. Even if we were to see a rapid transition to linear type structures, there will probably be high QLCS tor potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Interesting that DTX doesn't even mention anything besides "some elevated thunder" despite a portion of the CWA being in the SPC's slight risk. Yeah that isn't working either, must just hate us Michiganders. Its working for me now, wasn't earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Northern model camp takes the surface low north of Oklahoma City, so that may be a good benchmark to watch in the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Interesting that DTX doesn't even mention anything besides "some elevated thunder" despite a portion of the CWA being in the SPC's slight risk. Its working for me now, wasn't earlier. Doesn't surprise me. They never seem sold on severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Doesn't surprise me. They never seem sold on severe weather. they arent sold on anything, even if its currently occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Interesting that DTX doesn't even mention anything besides "some elevated thunder" despite a portion of the CWA being in the SPC's slight risk. Its working for me now, wasn't earlier. Well, it's certainly going to be more than that. However, it's not going to be much more than a chance to catch the northern end of a MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I've made a vow not to rip on DTX since they more or less nailed GHD...at least compared to what others were forecasting. Being conservative does not equate to being bad a bad forecast. Sounds like they're thinking all the convection going on to our south may leave nothing left this far north. RUC does seem to keep Surface CAPE at zilch in MI, although the 1000 MUCAPE line is inching closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Currently a track through Lansing at this time of year I would agree with DTX. If things change with the track (i.e. well west) then things could change as the storms would then have a chance to get further NE if they form into some lines or bow segments moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Currently a track through Lansing at this time of year I would agree with DTX. If things change with the track (i.e. well west) then things could change as the storms would then have a chance to get further NE if they form into some lines or bow segments moving NE. Isnt the hrrr/ruc/18z nam a bit further nw than lansing? Coulda sworn it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Memphis NWS has a nice AFD on the concerns for convection waiting awhile to develop - KPAH, as well I am thinking some of the morning hail storms could produce golf ball size hail - maybe larger. HAIL CAPE is in the 400-600 range over some of our counties in the KPAH region. Will be curious how that plays out - many big events have morning hail storms in our region - the 1 am through 6 am time frame. My thought is the main show is going to be east of far western KY (west of KY Lake) - but will be close (now cast event) - I like the SPC placement of probabilities and moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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