BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A few maps from the NMM - thought the jet streak on the 700 mb map was of interest Images used with permission from www.wright-weather.com Obviously some questions here on the warm front placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 And the theta - I will be curious to see if this is one of those days where everyone is waiting and watching - nothing happening - people saying bust - then things pop late in the day (quickly). Images used with permission from www.wright-weather.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 http://www.accuweath...f2d9b3d4f8ab6ec And they're at it again... Envoke images of 1974, then go on to describe conditions that occur in basically every tornado event (or cold frontal passage for that matter). We already struggle with public perception and reaction to warnings statements. Hyperbolic statements such as this don't help the cause. Saw that this morning - was being discussed by NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Saw that this morning - was being discussed by NWS I love the word getting out about the potential, but this kind of statement actually hurts the message in the long run I think. Speaking of quickly, I hate to think of quickly these storms will be moving with progged jet streaks at 700 mb of nearly 80 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 http://www.accuweath...f2d9b3d4f8ab6ec And they're at it again... Envoke images of 1974, then go on to describe conditions that occur in basically every tornado event (or cold frontal passage for that matter). We already struggle with public perception and reaction to warnings statements. Hyperbolic statements such as this don't help the cause. It is asinine to do this, even if it were to approach this type of an outbreak (which I don't even remotely expect) you don't go for the top event. That would be like comparing every Hurricane to Katrina and every blizzard to the Superstorm of 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I love the word getting out about the potential, but this kind of statement actually hurts the message in the long run I think. Speaking of quickly, I hate to think of quickly these storms will be moving with progged jet streaks at 700 mb of nearly 80 kts. which is why I don't get how you could possibly chase this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 which is why I don't get how you could possibly chase this event. I think tomorrow is one of those days where you need to position very wisely. Even then it will be tough to keep up unless one of these cells finds a way to parallel a major road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I think tomorrow is one of those days where you need to position very wisely. Even then it will be tough to keep up unless one of these cells finds a way to parallel a major road. Pretty much, you make your play and watch it race by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I think tomorrow is one of those days where you need to position very wisely. Even then it will be tough to keep up unless one of these cells finds a way to parallel a major road. The I-71 corridor is going to be quite interesting tomorrow... and not just because I'm traveling on it... in fact, I'm quite worried about my travels tomorrow and the timing of it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The I-71 corridor is going to be quite interesting tomorrow... and not just because I'm traveling on it... in fact, I'm quite worried about my travels tomorrow and the timing of it all. I'm in the same boat. I'm supposed to head to Nashville, but certainly don't want to travel through this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I don't think I've seen it posted here yet, here's the new day2 outlook DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VERY LARGE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A BELT OF VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW CROSSING THE OZARKS REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...DEEPENING WITH TIME INTO A SUB-990 MB LOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE ERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS NEWD WITH TIME...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE. MEANWHILE A STRONG/ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY...AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD ALONG/JUST E OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN WSWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS... ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING/INCREASING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS/TN/OH VALLEY REGION...NEAR AND N OF A RETREATING SURFACE WARM FRONT DEMARCATING THE NRN EDGE OF A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADING NWD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. WHILE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION -- AND ASSOCIATED HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER/ROTATING CELLS -- WILL SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS...CONTINUED NEWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE NWD ADVANCE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES S OF THE ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS...MIXED-LAYER CAPE INCREASING INTO THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE COMBINED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON A ZONE FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS KY AND TN INTO PARTS OF MS AND NRN AL...WHERE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS ALONG WITH SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. WITH STORM MODE LIKELY TO BECOME A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND COMPLEX LINE SEGMENTS...THREATS FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS EVIDENT...ACCOMPANYING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN AND NEAR THE MODERATE RISK AREA. OVERNIGHT...SLOW/WEAK STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- SHIFTING EWD TOWARD...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS...THE APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Few things that concern me about tomorrow 1) Early season nature. Indiana hasn't even had its severe weather preparedness week yet, although you would think that most people would know what to do if threatening weather approaches 2) Timing. It looks like this event may be peaking near the end of school and during rush hour when many will be out and about 3) Fast storm motions on the order of 50-70 mph 4) Several large population centers possibly in play for enhanced tornado threat None of this guarantees that something bad will happen but any outbreak in this region of the country has more potential for casualties given the higher population density compared to the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Few things that concern me about tomorrow 1) Early season nature. Indiana hasn't even had its severe weather preparedness week yet, although you would think that most people would know what to do if threatening weather approaches 2) Timing. It looks like this event may be peaking near the end of school and during rush hour when many will be out and about 3) Fast storm motions on the order of 50-70 mph 4) Several large population centers possibly in play for enhanced tornado threat None of this guarantees that something bad will happen but any outbreak in this region of the country has more potential for casualties given the higher population density compared to the Plains. Yeah Indy/Cinci/Louisville/Dayton all could be under the gun tomorrow also further South and East with Lexington and Nashville. Bold part is very key too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 6z NAM has more instability in the Ohio Valley. This may be a top candidate for ugliest sounding of the year. Note the helicity, EHI, bulk shear etc A little less insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I wonder if we will see a high, solely based on spc's conservative nature. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The models appear to be struggling in a couple areas: 1. Temperatures will likely end up warmer than progged across much of Indiana and Ohio. 2. Winds will likely be more backed than indicated, particularly with the position of the surface low. Otherwise, it will be interesting to see how strong and how far NW the low gets. Several of the ensemble members are still deeper and farther NW than the ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I wonder if we will see a high, solely based on spc's conservative nature.=59262:ImageUploadedByTapatalk HD1330627966.343351.jpg] Sent from my iPad HD We are already at a "high end moderate risk" per LMK... It wouldn't take much to push us over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Kevin - I have real questions on where storms initiate. Looking at the locally run St Louis WRF it is more bullish on morning convection - and further east, as well - well into KY/TN - then west. It forms a broken line of supercells across IL/MO/AR during the afternoon. St Louis local run wrf - http://www.crh.noaa..../wrfdisplay.php I see a lot of hesitatioon on the initi region. Seems like the soundings show more than sufficient CAPE over west KY and southeast IL - cap - even some loaded gun type soundings. But the trends on the models for 3 straight days has been further and further east with the low and the system - NAM has trended east for run after run it seems. Even if just a county or two at a time - over time it has added up. Will be curious to see the SPC WRF shortly. Init will be key for my local counties. Further east I am more worried - as is everyone. SPC probabilities look right. I noticed the SREF moved the greatest tornado threat a bit further west in its morning run. Just not sure on the race between the cold front/dry air/ and init. Thoughts? Yes the Cold front race against fry slot has me worried too. Nobody is very certain what will play here as a target looks wide for now. Interesting things slightly moving west. Things trending west to me says synoptic slow down slightly which will have a much greater impact on coverage of severe weather. See how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The models appear to be struggling in a couple areas: 1. Temperatures will likely end up warmer than progged across much of Indiana and Ohio. 2. Winds will likely be more backed than indicated, particularly with the position of the surface low. Otherwise, it will be interesting to see how strong and how far NW the low gets. Several of the ensemble members are still deeper and farther NW than the ops. I am also wondering about/how much of a NW trend myself. I mentioned in the snow thread for this storm that the last couple storms have had a definite NW trend within the last 24 hours of being modeled. Being on the very northern edge of the t-storm possibility I will take a NW trend. I don't expect much severe up this way but I would love to get a decent t-storm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 RUC is hit or miss especially in the outer periods but the 18z run is 4-5 mb deeper and about 100 miles north with the surface low at 12 hours (6z Friday) compared to NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Louisville conference call - accu weather stuff was brought up. Sad and frustrating. People who have no idea are getting this information (non-mets) and are worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 We are already at a "high end moderate risk" per LMK... It wouldn't take much to push us over. Correct, we're already at 45% (automatic hatching). No place to go upwards in threat but to a high risk. SWODY1 is different obviously, with individual threats parsed out. Would it shock me to see a 30% tornado risk tomorrow, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Louisville conference call - accu weather stuff was brought up. Sad and frustrating. People who have no idea are getting this information (non-mets) and are worried. These are things Accuweather doesn't have to deal with when they make the headline. You tell an EM that doesn't have a deep knowledge of the weather that this is similar to 1974, and they picture another tornado going through downtown. Light the fuse and run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 RUC is hit or miss especially in the outer periods but the 18z run is 4-5 mb deeper and about 100 miles north with the surface low at 12 hours (6z Friday) compared to NAM/GFS. At 18 hours, it is still significantly deeper and farther northwest. Extrapolating its track (which might be useless) would suggest a path just west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 At 18 hours, it is still significantly deeper and farther northwest. Extrapolating its track (which might be useless) would suggest a path just west of Chicago. The SREF trend has been ticking ever so slightly northward with greatest tornado ingredients probabilities, sharpening that northern gradient too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 At 18 hours, it is still significantly deeper and farther northwest. Extrapolating its track (which might be useless) would suggest a path just west of Chicago. Not that it really means much with the models, but the RUC has been doing pretty well with the last 2 storms. Again I know that may not mean much but it may have a better capability with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 These are things Accuweather doesn't have to deal with when they make the headline. You tell an EM that doesn't have a deep knowledge of the weather that this is similar to 1974, and they picture another tornado going through downtown. Light the fuse and run... This is up there with their "greatest hits", including: - The "so cold in Chicago" that some people are going to want to move away. - Fill up your gas tanks because oil prices are going to spike from T.S. Lee (I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 At 18 hours, it is still significantly deeper and farther northwest. Extrapolating its track (which might be useless) would suggest a path just west of Chicago. Can you link me to the one you are viewing SPC WRF still hasn't updated - blah - hope it updates. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Can you link me to the one you are viewing SPC WRF still hasn't updated - blah - hope it updates. I like it. NCEP http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller HRRR is also stronger/northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 NCEP http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller HRRR is also stronger/northwest RUC is considerably stronger at 06z this is something that will need to be monitored through the night to see if it is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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