Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00Z NAM STP for 00Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 This is a bit faster than the 12z as Hoosier indicated. At 00z intensity ramps up over most of central to ne IN and western OH southwestward to TN as Stebo just indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00Z NAM STP for 00Z Saturday. Not sure how to feel about that... the OV doesn't need more tornadoes after the strong tornadoes they've had today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 From Bill Murray on Alabamawx... Tomorrow will feature a few storms in the afternoon as the front goes back north as more warm, moist air builds over Alabama. Friday will be another severe weather day. Areas north of Alabama, like the Ohio Valley, could have a very, very bad day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00Z NAM STP for 00Z Saturday. Wow, did the timing speed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00z GFS seems simmilar to the 18z so far...maybe a bit stronger. EDIT: Defs stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Figured this could be posted here, from Baro in the main thread: Posted in the OV winter thread, might as well post here too. Also likely why many of the SREF members are all amped up too. Worth watching to see if the globals take more of a rapid intensification approach as it will have a significant influence on the warm sector development/low level flow response. Usually there are strong reasons to be suspect of anything the NAM does, especially when it tends to be a big outlier on the synoptic handling of a system, but the NAM here does (considering it is initializing correctly...always a big "if" these days it seems) have some utility here as this system will be deepening strongly off relatively extreme low level frontogenetic/upper jet scale properties. The cyclone itself is pretty small, and it will also have a strong warm sector moisture feed, so this will also have a tendency to force rapid pressure falls if this comes together correctly. Moist frontogenesis has been known to be drivers for storm intensification...rather rapidly sometimes. The meso models will have a slight "edge" w.r.t. this. 0Z RGEM is not too far off the NAM either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS has a sub 992mn low over IN/MI at hour 45...I'm thinking a moderate risk is a good bet to be issued some point tomorrow. Figured this could be posted here, from Baro in the SE thread: Notice how he says he posted in in the OV thread too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Ok, this is going to sound really stupid, but is the last NAM posted 7 p.m. EST Friday? For some reason I had in my mind the timing of Friday's storms would be similar to today's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Have been looking at profiles and hodo's the past 20 minutes. In the words of Cantore...holy smoke. GFS a lot stronger through 48hr. sub 992mb sfc low goes into southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS has a sub 992mn low over IN/MI at hour 45...I'm thinking a moderate risk is a good bet to be issued some point tomorrow. Notice how he says he posted in in the OV thread too Meh... I feel it is more important in this thread anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Have been looking at profiles and hodo's the past 20 minutes. In the words of Cantore...holy smoke. GFS a lot stronger through 48hr. sub 992mb sfc low goes into southern MI Yeah, someone should easily see the second Mod risk in 3 days, and quite possibly the first high risk of the season. Latest GFS showing a 100+kt 500mb flow, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS has a sub 992mn low over IN/MI at hour 45...I'm thinking a moderate risk is a good bet to be issued some point tomorrow. Notice how he says he posted in in the OV thread too I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see one in the next day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What does timing look like??? I will be leaving Marion, IN and heading south to Seymour, IN around noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wasn't there already a mod risk in part of Kentucky today? Which is part of the glov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wasn't there already a mod risk in part of Kentucky today? Which is part of the glov? Yes. Time to go for the high I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wasn't there already a mod risk in part of Kentucky today? Which is part of the glov? Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yes. Time to go for the high I guess. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looking at the hourly RGEM output, it takes the surface low into northern IL and exits land around Waukegan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Wow, very impressive mid level jet structure. Haven't had much time to dig into this thing yet, but will take a good look at this. Definitely scary looking though by what I've seen posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A few comments http://indianadoes.blogspot.com/2012/03/special-friday-severe-weather.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A few comments http://indianadoes.b...re-weather.html ...I knew there was something a bit familiar about that mid/upper wind setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 A few commentshttp://indianadoes.blogspot.com/2012/03/special-friday-severe-weather.html Very nice write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 it's like the models realize that Cantore is in town to cover Harrisburg damage, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 36 hour CIPS analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 48 hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I could see the SPC going this route as things look at the moment. These are only my opinions, and not an actual convective outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I could see the SPC going this route as things look at the moment. These are only my opinions, and not an actual convective outlook. What font style did you use in the risk names (i.e. HIGH, MDT...etc.)? Random question I know. Also, I highly doubt they will go high at a 07z day 2 outlook, although I could see a fair chunk of that MDT being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What font style did you use in the risk names (i.e. HIGH, MDT...etc.)? Random question I know. Oh, it's just GEMPAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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