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March 2 Severe Potential and Observations


Indystorm

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Phew what a day. Had 2 hail storms roll though my area today. Thank god the instablity didnt have time to make it up here. A low track just 50-100 miles further north and we could of been in some serious stuff. Prayers to all the people affected down south. It hits very close to home this time around. Looks like a rough spring may be in store for us.

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Also, what an introduction to Spring...jesus.

This has a shot to be the biggest 24 hour March outbreak on record in terms of numbers (definitely one of the largest in terms of sheer coverage of storms), and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few violent tornadoes confirmed, looking at some of the damage pictures...tomorrow morning is going to be ugly.

Still not much information on West Liberty, KY, which is very concerning. At least 1 fatality confirmed, and I've seen a few pictures of parts of the downtown area (It honestly looks somewhat like downtown Wakita after the tornado in Twister) and at least one structure with EF3 or possibly higher damage. The video that I saw of the tornadic supercell as it was coming into town had some of the most ridiculous motion in a wall cloud that I have ever seen. And that town is not the smallest either, >3000 population.

Also, those videos of the New Pekin/Henryville tornado looks scarily like Tuscaloosa/Cullman/Rainsville/Philadelphia/*Insert violent 4/27 tornado here* or the Van Wert, OH tornado on 11/10/02....

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The dead winter backdrop gives these tornado videos a really eerie feel. Kind of reminds me of some of the old pictures I've seen from 4/3/74 and the palm Sunday outbreak.

Yeah or the Super Tuesday outbreak back in 2008. Really weird to not see any leaves on the trees and a massive tornado just mowing right along.

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Surveys planned for March 3

Several survey teams will be on the road in southern Indiana and central Kentucky on Saturday. Teams will be following tornado tracks across southern Indiana, Trimble and Henry counties in Kentucky, Hart County, Madison County, and southern Kentucky from Metcalfe County to Russell County. National survey teams will be assisting with the devastating tornadoes in southern Indiana.

survey_map_overview.png

Hook went about ten miles to my south. I'm pretty sure there was a funnel with this all the way across Dubois, Crawford, and Orange Counties but I'm not aware of any touchdowns untill it got into Washington County.

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As bad as this is, imagine what it could've been like had better instability made it farther north into areas closest to the surface low (stronger low level shear).

Exactly. It was only March 2. Two significant outbreaks this past week. On Jan.17 Louisville CWA had their largest outbreak of Jan. tors ever. I've seen posts indicating that the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively warmer at this time than it was last year. Still fairly dry in parts of plains so dry line can sweep east and be a factor like it was in the March 2 outbreak. And our met friend Justin from Davenport is worried that this could be a dangerous spring season for us farther north up in the Midwest.

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Was just reviewing radar data on the Holton, IN storm. Absolutely incredible. Went from barely a blip on the radar to 100 kt G2G shear in a single radar scan. Less than 5 minutes. Barely had any time to get warnings out there.

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There was a radar loop somewhere yesterday, can't seem to find it now, that showed the cells as they went from East of Evansville and traveled across the lower part of Indiana. In that loop, it appears to show 2 distinct tornados the entire way, wondering if that is what folks in Henryville are reporting as to having been "hit twice." Also, having 2 tornados long track seems to be rare, in piggy back style. Dunno, just thinking out loud/observing.

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Thought I'd replay the events of the Holton tornado and see how it played out.

339pm

IND issues a SVR for Decatur and Jennings county. Radar

344pm

IND issues a TOR for Jennings county.

345pm

IND radar scan at 345pm shows 105kt G2G shear. Radar

347pm

ILN issues a TOR for Ripley county. Radar

353pm

Likely tornado enters the town of Holton, population 480. Radar shows 103kt g2g shear. Radar

356pm

IND radar scan shows 118kt g2g shear as likely tornado exits town of Holton. Radar

Additional radar scans

400pm

404pm

Incredible how quickly this storm popped up. Folks in Holton never had a chance to get much warning lead time. 6 minutes from when the warning was issued to when the tornado hit the town. Folks probably had even less time than that to prepare given it usually takes a few minutes to get the warnings out, sound sirens, etc. Current causality count is 2 fatalities, 7 injuries and 25 homes damaged. It will be interesting to see what the storm surveys show.

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There was a radar loop somewhere yesterday, can't seem to find it now, that showed the cells as they went from East of Evansville and traveled across the lower part of Indiana. In that loop, it appears to show 2 distinct tornados the entire way, wondering if that is what folks in Henryville are reporting as to having been "hit twice." Also, having 2 tornados long track seems to be rare, in piggy back style. Dunno, just thinking out loud/observing.

I think it was mentioned in the general thread, but with the southeast surface winds feeding the storms in combination with storm motion, the feed to the trailing cell was not being impeded by the first. It was unusual, however, to have two cells so close together following the same path.

EDIT: I don't have the loop, but I did grab a velocity scan:

post-830-0-79577200-1330790838.png

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There was a radar loop somewhere yesterday, can't seem to find it now, that showed the cells as they went from East of Evansville and traveled across the lower part of Indiana. In that loop, it appears to show 2 distinct tornados the entire way, wondering if that is what folks in Henryville are reporting as to having been "hit twice." Also, having 2 tornados long track seems to be rare, in piggy back style. Dunno, just thinking out loud/observing.

Yeah, I was just reviewing some radar data and it does look like Henryville got hit by both cells.

Some radar grabs:

1937z

2000z

2019z

2037z

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I'm surprised no one has taken note of the time of day for these storms, since usually our tornados in Indiana happen to be nighttime specials. Also, the photogenic quality is something you just dont see around here.

Yeah, a lot of stuff is rain wrapped or just not very high quality appearance. Not the case yesterday.

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I think it was mentioned in the general thread, but with the southeast surface winds feeding the storms in combination with storm motion, the feed to the trailing cell was not being impeded by the first. It was unusual, however, to have two cells so close together following the same path.

EDIT: I don't have the loop, but I did grab a velocity scan:

post-830-0-79577200-1330790838.png

Thank you.

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Yeah, I was just reviewing some radar data and it does look like Henryville got hit by both cells.

Some radar grabs:

1937z

2000z

2019z

2037z

Truly incredible images right there, so distinct, and close. It appears the photos/videos have been from the first tornado, I haven't seen anything from the trailing tornado, although maybe I have missed it.

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Exactly. It was only March 2. Two significant outbreaks this past week. On Jan.17 Louisville CWA had their largest outbreak of Jan. tors ever. I've seen posts indicating that the Gulf of Mexico is comparatively warmer at this time than it was last year. Still fairly dry in parts of plains so dry line can sweep east and be a factor like it was in the March 2 outbreak. And our met friend Justin from Davenport is worried that this could be a dangerous spring season for us farther north up in the Midwest.

I think some of that concern comes from the trend most of winter of having very progessive, fast flow in the northern stream. This could mean more jet support for the northern tier states. Generally speaking the instability will arrive at some point during the spring/summer, but it's whether or not we have the requisite shear in place for a region wide outbreak.

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I think it was mentioned in the general thread, but with the southeast surface winds feeding the storms in combination with storm motion, the feed to the trailing cell was not being impeded by the first. It was unusual, however, to have two cells so close together following the same path.

EDIT: I don't have the loop, but I did grab a velocity scan:

post-830-0-79577200-1330790838.png

I have to think there was some interaction between the lead cell's RFD and the trailing cell.

I also think these earlier cells played a role in the late JKL tornadoes in Saylersville and West Liberty. Whether it was a sagging cold pool boundary that enhanced horizontal vorticity, or even anvil shadowing that created a subtle difference.

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ECVS120622015.GIF

West Liberty is roughly due south of Detroit and even with the southern border of Indiana. You can see the dueling supercells, as well as the storms to the west, have anvil blow off that is roughly shading the areas to the north of that line. West Liberty was right about on that boundary. And of course it appears the West Liberty storm provided the outflow that the Saylersville supercell ingested.

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I can be pretty critical at times, but I have to say, the US National Weather Service Wilmington OH did an absolutely amazing job yesterday during what had to have been a very trying, hectic and stressful few hours. Their warnings hit the extreme danger of the situation home and the tornado emergencies they issued were not only appropriate but very necessary. And for that matter, all of the NWS Offices and Storm Prediction Center did an incredible job from what I saw.

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