OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Cantore is in Henryville. Estimating EF4 damage. He even said, "easily" EF4 damage. That might be a slightly hyperbolic statement for TV purposes. But the high school degree of damage looks to be high end EF3 type. There are also a few homes that look mostly (if not completely destroyed). Without knowing how well they were anchored it's impossible to assign a rating. Some of the surrounding damage looks a little inconsistent with "easily" EF4 damage too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 He even said, "easily" EF4 damage. That might be a slightly hyperbolic statement for TV purposes. But the high school degree of damage looks to be high end EF3 type. There are also a few homes that look mostly (if not completely destroyed). Without knowing how well they were anchored it's impossible to assign a rating. Some of the surrounding damage looks a little inconsistent with "easily" EF4 damage too. Chad Meyers on CNN earlier said the tornado had 200 mph winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Chad Meyers on CNN earlier said the tornado had 200 mph winds.... Based on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Based on? Based off the Chad Meyers live on television visual inspection of the helicopter video, lol Does he really need a reason to make crap up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see an F4 come out of it, but I wouldn't call for it. We have all been bit by that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see an F4 come out of it, but I wouldn't call for it. We have all been bit by that before. Oh I think at least one of these many impressive velocity signatures this evening will come in at EF4 strength, but "easily" EF4 damage to me would mean the town was wiped away completely. From what I saw there were still a large number of standing structures in Henryville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 He even said, "easily" EF4 damage. That might be a slightly hyperbolic statement for TV purposes. But the high school degree of damage looks to be high end EF3 type. There are also a few homes that look mostly (if not completely destroyed). Without knowing how well they were anchored it's impossible to assign a rating. Some of the surrounding damage looks a little inconsistent with "easily" EF4 damage too. I guess that is tv for ya. It's hard to resist the urge to speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Oh I think at least one of these many impressive velocity signatures this evening will come in at EF4 strength, but "easily" EF4 damage to me would mean the town was wiped away completely. From what I saw there were still a large number of standing structures in Henryville. Marysville showed quite a few slabs. But, nothing looked Joplin-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I guess another thing to keep in mind is that there is a chance we may not be seeing the absolute worst damage yet. The path of the tornadic part of the supercell is pretty rural for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I guess another thing to keep in mind is that there is a chance we may not be seeing the absolute worst damage yet. The path of the tornadic part of the supercell is pretty rural for the most part. Which could deflate the wind speeds, because there's not as many damage indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I guess another thing to keep in mind is that there is a chance we may not be seeing the absolute worst damage yet. The path of the tornadic part of the supercell is pretty rural for the most part. This is important, especially as a lot of the later tornadoes have occurred without the benefit of daylight. Not only does that make search and rescue a bear, but it makes the extent of the damage somewhat unknown too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Although we have no idea on final numbers it's already clear that this will be one of the more significant Indiana tornado outbreaks in the past few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Although we have no idea on final numbers it's already clear that this will be one of the more significant Indiana tornado outbreaks in the past few decades. The guidance last night was looking pretty scary, but this turned out even worse than I thought. Unfortunately we still have a ways to go with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Was thinking about what happened the other day. A smaller event followed up by today. I'm not comparing today to 1974 but almost reminiscent of 4/1/74 and 4/3/74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Hrrr continues to show 50 to 60 kt wind gusts over semi tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Was thinking about what happened the other day. A smaller event followed up by today. I'm not comparing today to 1974 but almost reminiscent of 4/1/74 and 4/3/74. Also 4/8/65 and 4/11/65. I bet it's happened a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Also 4/8/65 and 4/11/65. I bet it's happened a lot. Spitballing here, but the progressive nature of the pattern means you have strong jet support aloft for a large outbreak. It would also move storms through in relatively quick succession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Leaving aside a huge anomaly like 4/27, I am fearing that we're going to come in with a pretty high death toll for the modern era. Latest count is 27 and the number keeps steadily rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Leaving aside a huge anomaly like 4/27, I am fearing that we're going to come in with a pretty high death toll for the modern era. Latest count is 27 and the number keeps steadily rising. A few of those couplets were of the type that sheltering in place in an interior room is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Although we have no idea on final numbers it's already clear that this will be one of the more significant Indiana tornado outbreaks in the past few decades. today is a day that will be talked about for years. Truly incredible how the last year has played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 I hate saying this but looking into the future I think there could be more threads like this this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 today is a day that will be talked about for years. Truly incredible how the last year has played out As bad as this is, imagine what it could've been like had better instability made it farther north into areas closest to the surface low (stronger low level shear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 As bad as this is, imagine what it could've been like had better instability made it farther north into areas closest to the surface low (stronger low level shear). oh I agree especially across areas in central IN and into OH it could have been much worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 To steal a James Spannism, this is a generational outbreak for the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 Here are the pictures I took from Holton, Indiana in Ripley County where we confirmed with ISP that there were 2 fatalities. I could not get into the town itself, even with my Fox 59 media credentials, as they had the town completely blocked off to the public and media. That is where the 2 confirmed fatalities were. The debris field was insane. It stretched for miles in every direction. https://www.facebook...08252984&type=1 This one hit close to home. That town's about 5 or so miles from my parents house. Some eyewitness reports here: http://www.wrbiradio.com/templates/localnewstemp.asp?id=4139&storyno=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 As bad as this is, imagine what it could've been like had better instability made it farther north into areas closest to the surface low (stronger low level shear). oh I agree especially across areas in central IN and into OH it could have been much worse We threaded the needle on the higher population densities, in Indiana at least. Just a few miles south would have brought us into the Louisville metro, a few miles north would have brought more sustained damage into Madison, and of course, north of Bloomington, you are getting in to the highest population densities (aside from NW IN) in the state. Luck was on our side in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 To steal a James Spannism, this is a generational outbreak for the Ohio Valley. Sure looks like it. I've been on the internet following wx for like 14 years and I can only remember a few times where my level of concern for the OV had been so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 As bad as this is, imagine what it could've been like had better instability made it farther north into areas closest to the surface low (stronger low level shear). I know the image that is making the rounds that Skip Talbot captured of the Henryville tornado looked awfully similar to the Tuscaloosa tornado. Same chaotic vorticies around the main funnel, just showing how much helicity was available in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 817 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY MARCH 3 FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHERN OHIO... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON OH HAS ESTABLISHED 5 TEAMS THAT WILL BE CONDUCTING DAMAGE SURVEYS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FIRST TEAM WILL INVESTIGATE A LIKELY TOUCHDOWN IN HOLTON INDIANA...LOCATED IN RIPLEY COUNTY. THE SECOND TEAM WILL INVESTIGATE A PATH OF DAMAGE IN KENTUCKY THAT RUNS FROM CARROLLTON TO PINER TO CRITTENDEN TO PEACH GROVE. THE THIRD TEAM WILL THEN PICK UP THE CONTINUED PATH OF DAMAGE IN OHIO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER FROM PEACH GROVE KY. THE PATH RUNS FROM MOSCOW TO HAMMERSVILLE TO PEEBLES TO PIKETON OHIO. THE FOURTH TEAM WILL INVESTIGATE A PATH OF DAMAGE IN KENTUCKY THAT RUNS FROM WORTHVILLE TO DRY RIDGE TO FALMOUTH KY...ENDING ACROSS THE RIVER FROM RIPLEY OHIO. THE FIFTH TEAM WILL PICK UP THE PATH OF DAMAGE IN OHIO STARTING IN RIPLEY TO BENTONVILLE TO WEST UNION TO OTWAY TO LUCASVILLE. IT IS LIKELY THAT VARIOUS LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE PATHS WILL NEED A SURVEY CONDUCTED. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON WILL COORDINATE WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGERS TO IDENTIFY THESE LOCATIONS AND TRY TO SCHEDULE ADDITIONAL SURVEYS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. WE WANT TO THANK EVERYONE FOR THEIR PATIENCE AS THESE SURVEYS ARE CONDUCTED AND INFORMATION IS RELAYED TO THE HOME OFFICE. PRELIMINARY RESULTS WILL BE ISSUED VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS OR ADDITIONAL LOCAL STORM REPORTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN MONDAY. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RELEASE THIS INFORMATION AS IT IS GATHERED IN THE FIELD DUE TO THE VOLUME OF REPORTS EXPECTED. WE PROMISE TO RELEASE THESE PRELIMINARY REPORTS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE WHEN THEY ARE RELAYED BACK TO THE HOME OFFICE. A FINAL ASSESSMENT INCLUDING RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED AND TRANSMITTED VIA A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT BY TUESDAY MARCH 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 3, 2012 Share Posted March 3, 2012 LMK posted, they are bringing in a national team for their Indiana paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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