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March 2 Severe Potential and Observations


Indystorm

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i'm interested as hell to see what ends up happening around here. A bust or if we end up with a tornado or two around the central OH area later. If we do get severe, it'll be one of the strangest severe wx days I've ever seen unfold.

When I was driving on i-70 heading west this morning it was hazy sunshine, 40 degrees, and yet I could see thundercloud tops way off in the western sky, it looked like something you'd see on a warm humid summer morning. Then the temp started to climb rapidly and we got up to low 50's within an hour or two. Than it started raining and temps dropped to the mid 40s just after noon. Now temps are rising again, it's still raining and now we have the sound of thunder.

The outbreak in NE OH in May of 1985 started off cold and rainy in the morning...just sayin...

I's still cold with rain down here, but see some breaks in the clouds heading this way. Losing time for heating though.

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On a statewide scale maybe, but that boundary is surging north quickly. I think the southwestern part of the state is going to see some nasty stuff.

Yeah, I'd say the Cincinnati area has the greatest potential, especially with the warned cells to the southwest. Temps have been hovering in the low 50s with rain and clouds all day here in Columbus, though.

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i'm interested as hell to see what ends up happening around here. A bust or if we end up with a tornado or two around the central OH area later. If we do get severe, it'll be one of the strangest severe wx days I've ever seen unfold.

When I was driving on i-70 heading west this morning it was hazy sunshine, 40 degrees, and yet I could see thundercloud tops way off in the western sky, it looked like something you'd see on a warm humid summer morning. Then the temp started to climb rapidly and we got up to low 50's within an hour or two. Than it started raining and temps dropped to the mid 40s just after noon. Now temps are rising again, it's still raining and now we have the sound of thunder.

Yeah, it hasn't felt at all like a potential severe wx day.

Temps are rapidly rising now, though.

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Yeah, I'd say the Cincinnati area has the greatest potential, especially with the warned cells to the southwest. Temps have been hovering in the low 50s with rain and clouds all day here in Columbus, though.

That boundary is still going to surge north some, but I think Columbus will be about the northern extent of it.

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Interesting from Indy AFD:

NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ONGOING

ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT LAGS THESE BY QUITE

A BIT AND THERE IS CLEARING IN THE MIDDLE WHERE RAPID REFRESH IS

SHOWING SOME REDEVELOPMENT SO MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT RISK

UNTIL A BIT LATER. STILL LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING WILL BE OUT OF THE

AREA BY 0Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE IN THE EAST SINCE

TORNADO WATCH THERE RUNS UNTIL 2Z BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO CANCEL

THAT EARLY. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TIGHT PRESSURE

GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO

STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN AND WILL

CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 3Z. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS GUSTS MAY

NOT BE DONE BY THEN BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS ONCE TORNADO WATCHES

DROP TO AVOID ANY CONFUSION.

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Debris falling out of the sky in advance is never good. I'm sure there could be exceptions but I have noticed that it usually takes an EF3+ to do that.

Yeah that is very concerning among the reports of schools being hit, more than likely the kids would have been held as it would have been close to release time

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I really don't get DTX...!..Pathetic..they keep the watch still up...what are they going to wait for? Until the winds are here? hm..

I think the feel like they will just bust. Look at the last Winter Storm Warning. :whistle:

Here is their write up:

THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS. AS THE LOW

DEEPENS FROM THE OBSERVED PRESSURE OF 992MB NEAR CHAMPAIGN, IL TO

973MB JUST NORTHEAST OF SAGINAW BAY...A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL

DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL ALSO BE A FULL CONTRIBUTOR

TO THE HIGH WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION NEAR

06Z...AND MODELS ONLY SHOW SLIGHT ACCELERATION THROUGH THE CWA. NAM

AND GFS BUFR SOUNDING DEPICT 60-70KT MIXING DOWN FROM H8

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH FROM

THE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME. LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS EVENT INCLUDE THE

NOCTURNAL TIMING, A LACK OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT, AND WINDS NOT

LINING UP PARALLEL TO THE SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO LET

SOME MORE OBSERVATIONS COME IN TO NORTHERN INDIANA AND SW MICHIGAN

BEFORE MAKING THE WARNING DECISION ON HIGH WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS

HIGHEST FOR THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND SOUTH...BUT NORTH OF I-69 NOT

ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL HIT THE 58 MPH THRESHOLD. ALSO CONFIDENT IN

ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW AS THE LOW WILL

TRACK CLOSE TO THAT AREA...LIMITING THE PGF WINDS.

Okay I can understand that reasoning but why not just issue an advisory? Advisory conditions are going to happen and then put words in there saying a Warning may still be needed if conditions worsen. That's what I would do.

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I think the feel like they will just bust. Look at the last Winter Storm Warning. :whistle:

Here is their write up:

THE HIGHEST IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS. AS THE LOW

DEEPENS FROM THE OBSERVED PRESSURE OF 992MB NEAR CHAMPAIGN, IL TO

973MB JUST NORTHEAST OF SAGINAW BAY...A STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND WILL

DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL ALSO BE A FULL CONTRIBUTOR

TO THE HIGH WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION NEAR

06Z...AND MODELS ONLY SHOW SLIGHT ACCELERATION THROUGH THE CWA. NAM

AND GFS BUFR SOUNDING DEPICT 60-70KT MIXING DOWN FROM H8

TONIGHT...EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS GUSTS TO REACH NEAR 50 MPH FROM

THE 03-09Z TIMEFRAME. LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS EVENT INCLUDE THE

NOCTURNAL TIMING, A LACK OF ISENTROPIC DESCENT, AND WINDS NOT

LINING UP PARALLEL TO THE SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW. HAVE DECIDED TO LET

SOME MORE OBSERVATIONS COME IN TO NORTHERN INDIANA AND SW MICHIGAN

BEFORE MAKING THE WARNING DECISION ON HIGH WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS

HIGHEST FOR THE DETROIT METRO AREA AND SOUTH...BUT NORTH OF I-69 NOT

ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL HIT THE 58 MPH THRESHOLD. ALSO CONFIDENT IN

ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW AS THE LOW WILL

TRACK CLOSE TO THAT AREA...LIMITING THE PGF WINDS.

Okay I can understand that reasoning but why not just issue an advisory? Advisory conditions are going to happen and then put words in there saying a Warning may still be needed if conditions worsen. That's what I would do.

Yeah I know, already saw the discussion, but seriously........when are they going to issue the warning? Middle of the night when everyone is asleep?...lol

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true but I'm not ready to write off that area around Dayton. Any of those cells could strengthen and still have time to.

well I'll write them off for cmh at least now. I would have been surprised to see us end up with a tornado warning in the vicinity, (not even a severe tstorm watch in the area), on a day that featured virtually no sunshine, and 1 and 2 hour long periods of steady rain. Not to mention temps that were almost 15 degrees off the projected high of near 70.

guess it wasn't such a strange day afterall....at least for our area.

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Louisville is going to have their work cut out for them in terms of surveys in the coming days. Besides the monster Clark county storm, there were other big cells and countless potentials for brief spinups in lines.

They'll have a busy night just fielding calls as more and more damage is discovered too.

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