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March 2 Severe Potential and Observations


Indystorm

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Something you don't see every day

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

334 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ005-022230-

MCCRACKEN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PADUCAH

334 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST

THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE

HAIL...TORNADOES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE MORNING

INCREASING TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50

PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS

AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE EVENING

DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

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Wake up Missouri :) - ouch Brazito [Cole Co, MO] broadcast media reports HAIL of baseball size (E2.75 INCH) at 03:49 AM CST -- golf ball to baseball sized hail damaging motor vehicle windows in area.

6 S Warrenton [Warren Co, MO] trained spotter reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) at 05:00 AM CST -- hail covering ground

Village Of Four Seasons [Camden Co, MO] public reports HAIL of half dollar size (M1.25 INCH) at 03:45 AM CST -- hail covered the ground.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

452 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

MOZ061-063-064-021245-

ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-

452 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

AT 445 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

PAIR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

MOVE EAST AT 60 MPH ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN

530 AM AND 630 AM.

post-77-0-25159600-1330686339.png

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WOUS64 KWNS 021150

WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 55

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

555 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC005-013-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-

079-083-101-115-117-119-121-133-135-139-147-157-159-163-173-183-

189-021700-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0055.120302T1155Z-120302T1700Z/

IL

. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOND CALHOUN CHAMPAIGN

CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY

CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD

CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR

EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE

JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE

MACON MACOUPIN MADISON

MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY

MOULTRIE PIATT RANDOLPH

RICHLAND SHELBY ST. CLAIR

VERMILION WASHINGTON

INC011-013-021-023-027-045-055-063-083-093-101-105-107-109-119-

121-133-153-157-165-167-171-021700-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0055.120302T1155Z-120302T1700Z/

IN

. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE BROWN CLAY

CLINTON DAVIESS FOUNTAIN

GREENE HENDRICKS KNOX

LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE

MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN

PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN

TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO

WARREN

MOC027-029-051-055-059-065-071-073-099-105-113-125-131-139-151-

161-169-183-186-187-189-215-219-221-225-229-510-021700-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0055.120302T1155Z-120302T1700Z/

MO

. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALLAWAY CAMDEN COLE

CRAWFORD DALLAS DENT

FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON

LACLEDE LINCOLN MARIES

MILLER MONTGOMERY OSAGE

PHELPS PULASKI ST. CHARLES

ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE

TEXAS WARREN WASHINGTON

WEBSTER WRIGHT

MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ST. LOUIS CITY

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...IND...ILX...

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Posted this on the main forum thread, this region is definitely at risk of a major tornado outbreak and I think some of the factors that might not be perfect will be overwhelmed by the sheer raw energy at play here with a rapidly deepening low, strong wind shear environment and abundant instability. Would just say expect a major outbreak across the region, even into parts of MI and sw ON there could be borderline severe storms and an overnight thunder-lightning storm followed by strong westerly winds.

Also expect this to develop explosively and relatively early in day then maintain "high risk" intensity through afternoon and evening as it races across IL, IN, OH and KY. Stay safe.

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Just got hit by the elevated STL supercell cluster. Got pelted with a LOT of dime-quarter size hail, with the largest being very close to golf ball. Lasted 10 minutes, and it was enough to accumulate and whiten everything. Luckily the stones had mostly rime ice with only thin, brittle layers of clear ice. Otherwise, I'd have had a few extra dings on the car today. Impressive light show with lots of crawlers.

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193

ACUS01 KWNS 021301

SWODY1

SPC AC 021259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0659 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR

EXTREME SRN INDIANA...CENTRAL KY... AND NRN MIDDLE TN...

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK

FOR

MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE

UPPER OH VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO

TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE

POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

..SYNOPSIS

A 130 KT JET STREAK ALOFT NOW OVERSPREADING NW OK PER PROFILER PLOTS

WILL CONTINUE NEWD TO MO/IL/INDIANA BY THIS EVENING. A COUPLING OF

LOW-LEVEL WAA/DECREASING STATIC STABILITY AND DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT

EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE DEEPENING OF A

SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM MO TO CENTRAL IL BY

MIDDAY...AND SRN LOWER MI BY THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE

QUICKLY NWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A TRAILING COLD

FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGION. A

RESERVOIR OF L0W-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR AND S OF I-40

WILL SURGE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH

WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL NEWD EXPANSION OF THE UNSTABLE WARM

SECTOR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE WARM

ADVECTION REGIME.

..TN/OH VALLEY REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING

THE INITIAL ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR STL /JUST AHEAD OF THE

SURFACE CYCLONE/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD OVER CENTRAL

IL/INDIANA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

GUSTS. THE MORE SERIOUS SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK WILL BEGIN TO

MATERIALIZE IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MS RIVER BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN BAND

OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY

AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FARTHER E IN

THE UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES

WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND MOISTURE LIKEWISE

INCREASES...MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS NRN

KY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH

AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW/VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR NEAR 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.

THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST

LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW DISCRETE WARM

SECTOR SUPERCELLS / AND SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE ALONG THE

FRONT/...ALL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO

EPISODE WITH A FEW LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES. THE MOST PROBABLE

AREA FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES WILL BE SE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN

THE MORE ESTABLISHED WARM SECTOR...OR NEAR AND S OF THE OH RIVER

FROM EXTREME SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN. BOTH

PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE MOST PROBABLE IN THE HIGH

RISK AREA...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NE AS SW OH

AND WRN WV BEFORE EXITING THE WARM SECTOR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH

THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..MS/AL/GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT

THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE

GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN A LITTLE S OF

THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE WILL

DEVELOP NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET

STREAK AND SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR

WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF

CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS

AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. RISKS WILL INCLUDE A FEW

TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 03/02/2012

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I'm still 50/50 on whether or not to chase tomorrow.

Terrain from far Eastern IL through C. Indiana and into West-Central Ohio is decent. Storm motions of 50+mph could be an issue, but it's not a deal breaker.

My main concern is how early convection will play out and the affect it will have on later potential.

Decided to go.

Initial target is far E. Illinois and West-Central Indiana.

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PDS watch coming later? Wording in the MD makes it sound like it...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL

KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021522Z - 021715Z

A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY

MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE

HAIL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS

OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES

ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY

AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO

THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN

INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE

CYCLONE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI

RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS

SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY

LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN

ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRENGTHENING

LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED

WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE

MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE

STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE

CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB

JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL

MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG

AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE

STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...CELLS

WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD

DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST

OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 03/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

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356

WWUS30 KWNS 021549

SAW7

SPC AWW 021549

WW 57 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 021555Z - 030000Z

AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

50S CGI/CAPE GIRARDEAU MO/ - 25N DNV/DANVILLE IL/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /31NNW DYR - 24W BVT/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25045.

LAT...LON 36499119 40548930 40548588 36498794

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS

FOR WOU7.

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Alright guys/gals, let us try and keep all the disco into one thread since we are dealing with a sizable outbreak. Perhaps use this thread as an Obs thread with more disco/warnings/watches into the main forum. Keeps things easier for everyone. Hooser and I discussed this last night...but we never got things going. Give it a try.

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Just an interesting factoid, several of the school districts in the Nashville area are dismissing early due to the potential for storms.

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120302/NEWS01/303020156/Williamson-Wilson-Rutherford-schools-close-early-storms-loom?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|FRONTPAGE

Also, up here around Frankfort people are freaking out because Jim Cantore is heading to Lexington.

I worry about all this hype. If nothing happens they will believe that forecasts like this one are akin to crying wolf, and preparedness in the future will wane.

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Good luck and stay safe out there all

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

955 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA

WESTERN KENTUCKY

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL 600

PM CST.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE

GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING TODAY ACROSS

NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR...FEATURING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2500

J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600

M2/S2. TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER SERN

MO/W-CNTRL IL ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE

OF LONG-TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

1101 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

EASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EST

* AT 1058 AM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED

AT THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 465 AND HARDING STREET ON THE

SOUTHWEST SIDE OF INDIANAPOLIS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A

LINE EXTENDING FROM LEBANON TO 5 MILES WEST OF GREENWOOD...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

INDIANAPOLIS...

GREENWOOD...

SPEEDWAY...

SOUTHPORT...

BEECH GROVE...

ZIONSVILLE...

CARMEL...

LAWRENCE...

FISHERS...

NOBLESVILLE...

GREENFIELD...

ULEN...

HOMECROFT...

WHITESTOWN...

MONUMENT CIRCLE...

WYNNEDALE...

SPRING HILL...

ROCKY RIPPLE...

CROWS NEST...

INDIANA STATE FAIRGROUNDS...

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