Indystorm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I realize that there is a thread on the main page for this system, but it covers such a large geographical area that I want something a bit smaller to focus on as we near and experience the event. Right now the clown maps for STP for the Wabash Valley, southern IL and Indiana for 21z on Friday March 2 are very potent and worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 here we go again..... I know I would like a bit of a break before another outbreak.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I realize that there is a thread on the main page for this system, but it covers such a large geographical area that I want something a bit smaller to focus on as we near and experience the event. Right now the clown maps for STP for the Wabash Valley, southern IL and Indiana for 21z on Friday March 3 are very potent and worrisome. Also interesting to note those two small dots of 7+ on the tornado index in western Illinois. Just west of Peoria (in the Elmwood area, whose downtown had an F2 on 6/5/10) and over most of Henry County. Possibly some wrap-around severe from ILX northwest to DVN behind the main system Friday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 21Z is around 9PM correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 21Z is around 9PM correct? 4pm/3 central I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z NAM was on the stronger/western end of the solutions. 18z NAM backed down a little but still very impressive. This is looking like one of those days that will require close monitoring. One thing we can say with relative certainty...fast storm motions of 50-70 mph are likely so it will give little time to act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12z NAM was on the stronger/western end of the solutions. 18z NAM backed down a little but still very impressive. This is looking like one of those days that will require close monitoring. One thing we can say with relative certainty...fast storm motions of 50-70 mph are likely so it will give little time to act. Yeah the 12z NAM was def an outlier. Wouldn't be suprised to see the NAM back off a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00z NAM forecast soundings are horrendous in the OV Fri afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00z NAM forecast soundings are horrendous in the OV Fri afternoon/evening. Yeah, it looked weaker for a bit there, but then went towards the 12z verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm seeing a 130 to 150 knot jet at 300 mb at 48 hrs. screaming ne over St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 All kinds of instability: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 All kinds of instability: It gets MLCAPE of 1000-1500 as far north as northern IN/OH after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I just checked a hodo west of Cincinnati at 21z and my jaw dropped. It also looks like its hinting at a secondary SLP near the Memphis area at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It gets MLCAPE of 1000-1500 as far north as northern IN/OH after that. Yeah would be a concern even as far North as here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A ROCHESTER TO DEFIANCE LINE. IWX had this paragraph in their HWO late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00z NAM forecast soundings are horrendous in the OV Fri afternoon/evening. The NAM Has some of the best looking soundings I've seen in this area in a while. Seriously concerning for the OV if that pans out. Let's see what the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Those are not linear deep layer shear vectors: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah would be a concern even as far North as here. The ML Cape primarily, or are there other factors that might warrant an early outbreak here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The NAM Has some of the best looking soundings I've seen in this area in a while. Seriously concerning for the OV if that pans out. Let's see what the GFS does. Hard to believe this will be the first week of March. The CAPE/shear is reminiscent of what has been seen in some of the bigger outbreaks in this region. Obviously there's a lot more to it than indices and I'm not willing to call for a large event quite yet, but the NAM environment is volatile. Now we wait for the GFS to come in more subdued lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 I just checked a hodo west of Cincinnati at 21z and my jaw dropped. It also looks like its hinting at a secondary SLP near the Memphis area at 00z. As has been discussed elsewhere, if that secondary forms to back winds from the TN valley northward to the Ohio Valley this increases the concern greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Never a good sign when you see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 How did the NAM do in verification for the Feb. 28-29 outbreak vs. the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This is an image of some pretty good low level shear more so that the Surface to 500mb This is surface to 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Maybe a little contest here? What do YOU think the SPC will do in the updated DAY 2 outlook??? Will there be a moderate risk area? How far north will it be? Will there be a hatched tornado risk and wind damage area??? Where will it be??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Jesus that mid-level jet streak is insane, and some of the wind profiles and hodographs are just crazy for the area. Good luck chasing though with those storm motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Maybe a little contest here? What do YOU think the SPC will do in the updated DAY 2 outlook??? Will there be a moderate risk area? How far north will it be? Will there be a hatched tornado risk and wind damage area??? Where will it be??? I think there will be a MDT especially if the GFS comes in anything like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I think there will be a MDT especially if the GFS comes in anything like the NAM. I think they go 30 w/hatched until 1730Z outlook, anything less I would be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Maybe a little contest here? What do YOU think the SPC will do in the updated DAY 2 outlook??? Will there be a moderate risk area? How far north will it be? Will there be a hatched tornado risk and wind damage area??? Where will it be??? That's only on Day 1 outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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