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Our region's extreme run


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This is somewhat of a long shot, but I believe a top 10 coldest January at BWI is now possible too.

 

After yesterday we were tied for 14th coldest. And today was well below average so that will help. I think we will get in the top 10, but its possible Friday might ruin it at the very end with a near normal to slightly above normal day.

 

Rodney, how's DCA and IAD looking? Any chance of breaking top 10 there?

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After yesterday we were tied for 14th coldest. And today was well below average so that will help. I think we will get in the top 10, but its possible Friday might ruin it at the very end with a near normal to slightly above normal day.

 

Rodney, how's DCA and IAD looking? Any chance of breaking top 10 there?

I would say DCA no, but IAD yes.

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We're now tied for 9th coldest! The low of 5 this morning will help even more. Now I'm waiting to see if we can get colder than 1994 (which is 7th on the list and only a half degree away)

IAD looks as if it will finish January with an average temperature of around 27 degrees, which would make it the coldest January since 1994 and the 6th coldest all-time.  The coldest IAD Januaries: 1977 (21.0), 1970 (23.9), 1984 (25.8), 1994 (26.1), and 1982 (26.2).  Bear in mind, however, that the temperature record there dates only to November 1962, and so we're talking about only 52 Januaries.  

 

DCA has not been all that cold, and will likely finish January with an average temperature of around 32 degrees, which would not be even the coldest recent January.  The coldest DCA Januaries over the past 20 years: 1994 (28.8),  2004 (30.6), 2003 (31.1), and 2009 (31.7). The all-time coldest DC January was 1918, with an average of 23.7, and there have been another 30 or so years in the 144-year January temperature record that have been colder than this one is likely to be.

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IAD looks as if it will finish January with an average temperature of around 27 degrees, which would make it the coldest January since 1994 and the 6th coldest all-time.  The coldest IAD Januaries: 1977 (21.0), 1970 (23.9), 1984 (25.8), 1994 (26.1), and 1982 (26.2).  Bear in mind, however, that the temperature record there dates only to November 1962, and so we're talking about only 52 Januaries.  

 

DCA has not been all that cold, and will likely finish January with an average temperature of around 32 degrees, which would not be even the coldest recent January.  The coldest DCA Januaries over the past 20 years: 1994 (28.8),  2004 (30.6), 2003 (31.1), and 2009 (31.7). The all-time coldest DC January was 1918, with an average of 23.7, and there have been another 30 or so years in the 144-year January temperature record that have been colder than this one is likely to be.

IAD finished at 27.2 degrees, which was indeed the 6th coldest January there, and 6.0 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal.  DCA finished at 32.2 degrees, which tied for the 39th coldest January in DC, and 3.8 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal. 

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Do you have the top-10 on hand, Rodney?

IAD Top Ten:

 

1) February 5-6, 2010: 32.4 inches

2) January 6-8, 1996: 24.6 inches

3) February 10-11, 1983: 22.8 inches

4) February 15-17, 2003: 21.7 inches

5) December 18-19, 2009: 18.0 inches

6) February 18-19, 1979: 16.3 inches

7) December 31,1970-January 1, 1971: 15.4 inches

8) March 12-14, 1993: 14.1 inches

9) February 12-13, 2014: 13.3 inches

10) December 25-26, 1969: 12.1 inches

 
 
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Dulles' snowfall of 13.3 inches on February 12-13, 2014 cracked the IAD Top Ten, at #9, displacing to # 10 the December 25-26, 1969 snowfall of 12.1 inches. 

Speaking of Top Tens at Dulles, with yesterday's 0.3 inch snowfall IAD has now recorded 30.5 inches of snow this winter, tying this season for 10th on the all-time list.  Further, IAD's snow total this season has exceeded DCA's total of 15.2 inches by 15.3 inches so far, putting it within striking distance of the all-time record separation of 18.6 inches set in the winter of 1992-93, when IAD recorded 30.3 inches and DCA recorded only 11.7 inches.  That season  -- also an ENSO-neutral one -- more than half of IAD's snow total was recorded in March.   

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Remember Ian's article about how uncommon 1" and above snows are becoming at DCA.  Well in today's Washington Post there is a non-technical article by Reid Wilson on California's drought that speculates that melting of Arctic ice may be 'contributing to a slowing of the jet stream contributing to colder wetter weather in the eastern U.S. and more persistently dry conditions in the west". 

 

I guess for every winner there is a loser.

 

Kind of reminds me of spring 2010, when several hopeful posters here speculated that 2009/2010 could become the new norm or last winter when several scientific articles predicted that melting of Arctic ice could be responsible for warmer eastern U.S. winters and colder European winters. 

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During the 2013-14 snow season, DCA and IAD have now each exceeded their three most recent snow season totals combined.  For DCA, this season has seen 15.5 inches vs. 15.2 inches for the prior three seasons; and for IAD, this season has seen 30.8 inches vs. 29.0 inches for the prior three seasons. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

IAD finished at 27.2 degrees, which was indeed the 6th coldest January there, and 6.0 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal.  DCA finished at 32.2 degrees, which tied for the 39th coldest January in DC, and 3.8 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal. 
 IAD finished February at 32.2 degrees , bringing the meteorological winter average to 32.9 there. That is 2.4 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal of 35.3, which means that season tied for the 15th coldest winter, and the coldest since 2002-2003 (30.7). However, it was still far behind the back-to-back winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78, which each averaged 29.0.DCA finished February at 37.8 degrees , bringing the meteorological winter average to 37.4 there. That is 1.0 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal of 38.4. However, this season was actually the 56th warmest DC winter of 143, and the coldest only since 2010-2011 (36.7). Moreover, it trailed the all-time coldest winter by 8.4 degrees. That would be the winter of 1904-1905, which averaged 29.0.
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  IAD finished February at 32.2 degrees , bringing the meteorological winter average to 32.9 there. That is 2.4 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal of 35.3, which means that season tied for the 15th coldest winter, and the coldest since 2002-2003 (30.7). However, it was still far behind the back-to-back winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78, which each averaged 29.0. DCA finished February at 37.8 degrees , bringing the meteorological winter average to 37.4 there. That is 1.0 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal of 38.4. However, this season was actually the 56th warmest DC winter of 143, and the coldest only since 2010-2011 (36.7). Moreover, it trailed the all-time coldest winter by 8.4 degrees. That would be the winter of 1904-1905, which averaged 29.0.

 

Winter precipitation this season was actually more impressive than temperature.  IAD received 12.08 inches during December 2013 through February 2014 vs a 1981-2010 normal of 8.38 inches and a 1978-79 record of 15.94 inches -- good enough for 6th all-time (relative to 51 meteorological winters there ). DCA received 12.13 inches vs a 1981-2010 normal of 8.49 inches and a 1881-82 record of 18.30 inches -- good enough for 19th all-time (relative to 143 meteorological winters in DC). 

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So far this is tied for 13th coldest year at BWI (January and February)

At IAD, it's tied for the 8th coldest so far out of 52 years, with a January-February average of 29.7 degrees vs a 1981-2010 normal of 34.7 degrees.  It's interesting to note that the three coldest IAD first two months composites came back-to-back-to-back: 1977 (27.9), 1978 (27.0), and 1979 (27.25).  In DC, it's tied for the 58th coldest so far out of 144 years, with a January-February average at DCA of 35.0 degrees vs a 1981-2010 normal of 37.5 degrees.  The coldest DC first two months composite was 1904 (27.95), and the coldest DCA first two months composite was 1963 (31.2).

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Winter precipitation this season was actually more impressive than temperature.  IAD received 12.08 inches during December 2013 through February 2014 vs a 1981-2010 normal of 8.38 inches and a 1978-79 record of 15.94 inches -- good enough for 6th all-time (relative to 51 meteorological winters there ). DCA received 12.13 inches vs a 1981-2010 normal of 8.49 inches and a 1881-82 record of 18.30 inches -- good enough for 19th all-time (relative to 143 meteorological winters in DC). 

Another thing that marked the 2013-14 meteorological winter in this area was the average daily temperature change.  At DCA, that average was 6.1 degrees, which was the highest since the 6.8 degree average daily change that occurred during the 1990-91 winter. However, 6.1 degrees is only tied for 31st all-time in DC.  During the first 29 years of daily temperature records in DC (1872-1900), the average daily temperature change during the meteorological winter exceeded 6.1 degrees twelve times, including the all-time record of 7.6 degrees during the winter of 1889-90.  That winter was also the second warmest in DC history, with an average temperature of 44.3 degrees vs 37.4 degrees this winter.  

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How about the number of days we have seen a trace or more of snow and how many days with snow on the ground? In Purcellville starting way back in November, I have seen snow fall like 24 days. And snow on the ground about the same number. Any records on these?

I haven't checked every year in DC, but during the 1904-05 snow season, there were 21 days with measurable snow and 16 additional days with a trace of snow, for a total of 37 days on which at least a trace fell. During that same season, there was measurable snow on the ground on 55 days and a trace of snow on the ground on an additional 20 days, for a total of 75 days with at least a trace on the ground.

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