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Our region's extreme run


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Quite a contrast this year, with January-August 2013 at DCA averaging 60.4, still good enough for 18th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 3.7 degrees from last year. 

January-September 2013 at DCA averaged 61.6 degrees, 20th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 3.4 degrees from last year. 

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And this year it ended on the 9th.  Still, 18 consecutive days below 90 in July-August is a far cry from the last three years.

On the other hand, with a high of 90 degrees at DCA today, the span of 90+ days this year since the first 90+ day on April 10th is 177 days.  That's the second longest yearly 90+ span in DC history, topped only by 1907's span of 183 days (from March 22nd to September 21st.)  

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On the other hand, with a high of 90 degrees at DCA today, the span of 90+ days this year since the first 90+ day on April 10th is 177 days.  That's the second longest yearly 90+ span in DC history, topped only by 1907's span of 183 days (from March 22nd to September 21st.)  

And, with a high of 91 today at DCA, this year's 90+ span is now 179 days.  However, given the forecast for the coming week, the all-time record appears out of reach.  The latest 90+ day in DC history was October 11th -- an even 90 back in 1919.

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And, with a high of 91 today at DCA, this year's 90+ span is now 179 days.  However, given the forecast for the coming week, the all-time record appears out of reach.  The latest 90+ day in DC history was October 11th -- an even 90 back in 1919.

Speaking of hot weather, today's Capital Weather Gang states: "The first six days of October better resembled the first six days of July, with an average high of 88." Actually, for what must be the first time in DC history, the first six days of October 2013 had a higher average maximum than the first six days of any preceding month that year. Specifically, here are the first six-day average maximums, January-October 2013:

Jan 44.5, Feb 38.7, Mar 44.8, Apr 58.2, May 67.5, Jun 82.3, Jul 87.7, Aug 82.0, Sep 87.2, Oct 88.2.

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As I remarked on the October Nor'easter thread, October 11's IAD precipitation total of 3.38" combined with October 10's total of 2.22" marks only the third time in Dulles Airport's 50+ year history that two consecutive days each exceeded two inches of precipitation with one of those days exceeding three inches. However, the other two times were only three-day rain events, whereas the current event now spans five days.  Specifically:

 

August 9, 1984:   0.68"

August 10, 1984: 2.38"

August 11, 1984: 4.68"

 

October 6, 2005: 0.33"

October 7, 2005: 3.50"

October 8, 2005: 2.79" 

 

October 9, 2013:   0.21"

October 10, 2013: 2.22" 

October 11, 2013: 3.38" 

October 12, 2013: 0.33" 

October 13, 2013: 0.12" 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Today marks 1000 days since Commutageddon, January 26, 2011.   A variety of long-term models indicate that another 2-inch snowstorm should take place in DC no later than January 26, 2021.

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  • 2 weeks later...

We talk a lot about vanishing late season snowfall but its getting just as bad in the early season (i.e. November). The 1971-2000 Nov. snowfall average at BWI was 0.6 inches; the 1981-2010 average was 0.4 inches.

 

If BWI gets no accumulating snow this November, it will tie the record for the number of consecutive Novembers (8) with no accumulating snow. The two other time periods were the 8-year periods of 1979-1986 and 1997-2004.

 

Also, 1979 did have 0.3 inches of snow in October, so technically if we're talking about no early season snow at all (and not just November), then 1997-2004 is the winner.

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  • 3 weeks later...

January-October 2013 at DCA averaged 61.7 degrees, 16th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 2.9 degrees from last year.

January-November 2013 at DCA averaged 60.3 degrees, 21st warmest on DC's all-time list, and down 2.7 degrees from last year. Additionally, November 2013 equaled November 2012 with an average temperature of 46.6 degrees, 3.0 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal and tied for 82nd on the all-time list. 

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I guess this could go here.. a look at how cold this coming shot is for DC should it happen:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/22/abnormal-cold-to-close-november-possibly-coldest-in-decades/

Also, follow up on the above.  Two charts, and posted to FB last night.

 

post-1615-0-09469400-1385920842_thumb.gi

 

post-1615-0-31242200-1385920846_thumb.gi

 

"High of 39 today (assuming it holds) will be third day this month with highs below 40 in DC. Most in Nov since 1956.

This is on top of our coldest Nov day (hi) since 1987 and coldest two day Nov stretch (avg) since 1970 last Sunday and Monday. Didn't touch anything of major note on the lowest lows of the stretch but quite impressive these days. "

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Rodney, what happens to the data if you exclude Jan? Also, where does this year as a whole place since 1980?

TIA!

If January is excluded, this year so far has been the 25th warmest all-time, so not that much of a change there.  If you look at 1981-2013 (33 years), January-November is the 14th warmest, but the coolest since 2009, which averaged 0.4 degrees cooler through November. The coolest year through November during 1981-2013 was 2003, which averaged 58.0 degrees, or  2.3 degrees cooler than this year so far.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Record high warning being issued for Sunday at BWI.

Wow…62F is the record.  Lowest record high max of the entire month and only set 2 years ago!  That's a gimmee.  IAD's record is 61F, also set in 2011.  Both of those are probably locks.  DCA is 68F.  That's going to be close.  

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Wow…62F is the record.  Lowest record high max of the entire month and only set 2 years ago!  That's a gimmee.  IAD's record is 61F, also set in 2011.  Both of those are probably locks.  DCA is 68F.  That's going to be close.  

 

Actually that's Saturday's (Dec. 21) record, I was talking about Sunday (Dec. 22) where the record is 70... but now that you mention it, I agree, Saturday looks like it will likely be broken too.

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This morning's low of 51 at both DCA and IAD tied the record high minimum at DCA and broke it at IAD.  Also, BWI's morning low of 54 broke the record there.  

 

Sunday looks to feature multiple record category breakage....High mins will likely be crushed at IAD and DCA, and pretty decent shot at exceeding the high max at both.

 

I will be out soaking in that record warmth, even if it rains.

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