MN Transplant Posted July 22, 2013 Author Share Posted July 22, 2013 nice article...I'd like to see CWG cover some aspects of the heat of the last 4 years without referencing AGW (not referring to the above article)....I don't know the answer, but it would be interesting to discuss the pattern driven and indice driven aspects of the big heat....MSP's top 8 max mins are all dust bowl.....9 of Denver's top 10 are dust bowl or 1880's....all of DC's are fairly recent...and of course the frequency too.....So if it isn't JUST UHI, why aren't places like MSP and DEN shattering their max min records? MSP's records at the time were right downtown. It could be argued that the UHI was more acute in the 1930s than at the airport location now. Of course, since the dust bowl was partly anthropogenic, you wade into other territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Tying anything to global warming is tough to steer from because it doesn't involve a lot of research and it guarantees comments. I need to look at the frequency of 79+, 78+ type lows.. close but not 80+. 80+ is kind of arbitrary other than the fact that we all focus on the starts of 10s naturally. AT DC at least the lows have been impacted considerably more than the highs though I suppose it's arguable that we are seeing more frequency of the higher level highs if not the highest temps. My in depth knowledge of other stations is limited--there are some interesting comparisons between DC and Balt when the Balt station was downtown though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Tying anything to global warming is tough to steer from because it doesn't involve a lot of research and it guarantees comments. I need to look at the frequency of 79+, 78+ type lows.. close but not 80+. 80+ is kind of arbitrary other than the fact that we all focus on the starts of 10s naturally. AT DC at least the lows have been impacted considerably more than the highs though I suppose it's arguable that we are seeing more frequency of the higher level highs if not the highest temps. My in depth knowledge of other stations is limited--there are some interesting comparisons between DC and Balt when the Balt station was downtown though. Good points. Though of course one cannot link singular events to a climatological phenomenon (stating the obvious here, I know!), it is hard to ignore global warming. As for this July, last I checked DCA was ~3 degrees above normal for the month, through yesterday (Jul. 22). And much of that from my quick look and calculation was due to the overnight lows, not so much the daily highs, as you stated. I think the lows are ~4 degrees above so far (vs. ~+1 or so for the highs) compared to the July mean for the entire month. Not the best to compare to the overall July climo since we've got just over a week left this month, but you get the idea. Interesting. It was quite oppressive the past week or so, that's for sure, even if it wasn't excessively hot in terms of absolute temperatures. I'm sure the amount of precipitation we've received since June played a role there. If the latest forecasts for the next week are correct, I'd expect that DCA departure to decrease somewhat, maybe to ~+2 degrees or even less(?). After the past 3 Julys...or, heck, the past 3 summers!...this year has seemed relatively moderate. Though, yes, that's somewhat subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 at 25 straight days 70 or above...wonder what the record is It may be July 15-August 15, 1980, which saw 32 consecutive 70+ minimums at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 If July ended right now, BWI would be ranked 11th hottest (avg temp of 80.7 degrees). It looks like that's going to be knocked down in the next few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 It may be July 15-August 15, 1980, which saw 32 consecutive 70+ minimums at DCA. I'm pretty sure that this is the all-time record. Other notable 70+ minimum streaks at DCA are: July 12-August 10, 1999: 30 days August 13-September 10, 1959: 29 days July 17-August 13, 2011: 28 days July 5-July 31, 2010: 27 days June 29-July 24, 2013: 26 days Last year just missed being the all time champ. June 28-August 15, 2012 encompassed 49 days, and only one (July 21) had a minimum below 70. So, there was a 23-day streak immediately followed by a 25-day streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 If July ended right now, BWI would be ranked 11th hottest (avg temp of 80.7 degrees). It looks like that's going to be knocked down in the next few days though.Quite a contrast in relative positions for DCA's average maximum and overall average temperatures in July. The average July 2013 maximum was a moderate 88.3 degrees, only 47th all-time in DC weather history. However, the overall July 2013 average was 81.2 degrees, good enough for 13th on the all-time list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 1, 2013 Share Posted August 1, 2013 Wettest July on record warning being issued for IAD lol Finished 2nd wettest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 A look at sub 90 streaks in July Aug recently: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/07/missing-90-degree-high-temperatures-in-d-c/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 A look at sub 90 streaks in July Aug recently: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/07/missing-90-degree-high-temperatures-in-d-c/ Really nice piece, Ian. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 A look at sub 90 streaks in July Aug recently: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/07/missing-90-degree-high-temperatures-in-d-c/ global cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Really nice piece, Ian. Well done. I agree. I note as well that July 11-August 6, 2000 also featured a 27-day streak with no 90+ temperatures, and that 2000 was the coolest DCA meteorological summer since 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 prob should have included something like this but didn't think of it till today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 prob should have included something like this but didn't think of it till today. 90-by-year-during-stretch.gif That's helpful. Another thing to note is that 2013 marks the first August to open with the first week below 90 since 2003. That year, the streak ended on August 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 That's helpful. Another thing to note is that 2013 marks the first August to open with the first week below 90 since 2003. That year, the streak ended on August 14th. And this year it ended on the 9th. Still, 18 consecutive days below 90 in July-August is a far cry from the last three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Somehow I've not seen this site before. It's pretty nice. http://www.sercc.com/perspectives Jason linked to it on CWG today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 14, 2013 Author Share Posted August 14, 2013 Somehow I've not seen this site before. It's pretty nice. http://www.sercc.com/perspectives Jason linked to it on CWG today. Very cool. High temps season to date almost dead median with the 1930-present climate record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Possible record low for BWI tonight. NWS calling for low of 53. The record low for today is 51 and tomorrow is 49. I would assume any low would be after midnight, so the 49 will probably be the one we're competing against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Very cool. High temps season to date almost dead median with the 1930-present climate record.I agree -- thanks for the link, Ian. I think the most interesting temperature data for DCA are these: Year to Date 01/01/13 - 08/14/13 Max: 67.3 T-39th warmest Min: 51.5 6th warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 LYH shattered a 120 year old record low-- at 52 last night. 1964 for some reason we were the warm spot. -- every other location had a record from that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Possible record low for BWI tonight. NWS calling for low of 53. The record low for today is 51 and tomorrow is 49. I would assume any low would be after midnight, so the 49 will probably be the one we're competing against. I was one day off- we didn't get it yesterday but we got it today. Overnight low of 53 at BWI, the record was 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 To further update, January-August 2012 checks in at an average 64.1 degrees, breaking the 1991 first eight months record by 1.6 degrees.Quite a contrast this year, with January-August 2013 at DCA averaging 60.4, still good enough for 18th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 3.7 degrees from last year. The 2013 meteorological summer averaged 78.3 (26th), down 2.1 degrees from last year. But the real story of the DCA summer was the sharp contrast in relative placement between the average minimum of 70.76 (5th, down only 0.58 degrees from last year) vs. the average maximum of 85.8 (54th, down 3.7 degrees from last year). To put that in perspective, the four hottest meteorological summers in DC history (2010, 81.3; 2011, 81.1; 2012, 80.4; 1980, 80.0) were also the four hottest in the exact same order with respect to both average minimum temperatures (2010, 72.4; 2011, 72.1; 2012, 71.34; 1980, 70.79) and average maximum temperatures (2010, 90.1; 2011, 90.0; 2012, 89.5; 1980, 89.3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 But the real story of the DCA summer was the sharp contrast in relative placement between the average minimum of 70.76 (5th, down only 0.58 degrees from last year) vs. the average maximum of 85.8 (54th, down 3.7 degrees from last year). The 2013 astronomical summer (June 21-September 23rd) did not produce as sharp a contrast, but nonetheless the average minimum of 69.7 degrees was good enough for 13th place all-time, versus the average maximum of 85.7 being only 47th warmest. Similarly, during the composite summer (June 1-September 23rd), the average minimum of 69.3 was tied for the 9th warmest, whereas the average maximum of 85.1 was 48th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 2013 hasn't been very extreme compared to 2009-2012. Having said that, there's a few things I'm watching for in October for BWI: -If we'll break or tie at least one daily lowest maximum record in Oct. for the 5th year in a row. -If some crazy record-breaking event will occur on Oct. 29 for the 3rd year in a row. -If we break a record high this Wednesday, Oct. 2. The record is 89, NWS currently calling for high of 84 and TWC calling for 86. Its an extreme long shot, but a positive bust could make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Quite a contrast this year, with January-August 2013 at DCA averaging 60.4, still good enough for 18th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 3.7 degrees from last year. January-September 2013 at DCA averaged 61.6 degrees, 20th warmest on DC's all-time list, but down 3.4 degrees from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 And this year it ended on the 9th. Still, 18 consecutive days below 90 in July-August is a far cry from the last three years. On the other hand, with a high of 90 degrees at DCA today, the span of 90+ days this year since the first 90+ day on April 10th is 177 days. That's the second longest yearly 90+ span in DC history, topped only by 1907's span of 183 days (from March 22nd to September 21st.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 BWI officially reached 90 for the high today. Though this was not a daily record, this was the first time BWI has had a 90+ day in October since 10/9/07. October 2007 ended up tied for the 5th hottest October on record at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 On the other hand, with a high of 90 degrees at DCA today, the span of 90+ days this year since the first 90+ day on April 10th is 177 days. That's the second longest yearly 90+ span in DC history, topped only by 1907's span of 183 days (from March 22nd to September 21st.) And, with a high of 91 today at DCA, this year's 90+ span is now 179 days. However, given the forecast for the coming week, the all-time record appears out of reach. The latest 90+ day in DC history was October 11th -- an even 90 back in 1919. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 And, with a high of 91 today at DCA, this year's 90+ span is now 179 days. However, given the forecast for the coming week, the all-time record appears out of reach. The latest 90+ day in DC history was October 11th -- an even 90 back in 1919.Speaking of hot weather, today's Capital Weather Gang states: "The first six days of October better resembled the first six days of July, with an average high of 88." Actually, for what must be the first time in DC history, the first six days of October 2013 had a higher average maximum than the first six days of any preceding month that year. Specifically, here are the first six-day average maximums, January-October 2013: Jan 44.5, Feb 38.7, Mar 44.8, Apr 58.2, May 67.5, Jun 82.3, Jul 87.7, Aug 82.0, Sep 87.2, Oct 88.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 For the 2nd year in a row now, the wettest October on record watch is being issued for BWI. (2012 ended up finishing in 2nd place, behind 2005). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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