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Our region's extreme run


MN Transplant
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Interesting note from the Capital Weather Gang: "The 2.24 inches at Reagan National Airport, 1.76 inches at Dulles International Airport, and 2.62 inches at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport were all record amounts for the date. That brings Washington’s total rainfall to 9.69 inches since Dec. 1, well past the previous high of 7.56 inches during the same period in 1901-1902, according to Capital Weather Gang’s Ian Livingston." See https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/01/10/dc-storm-flooding-record-rainfall

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Today, January 26, 2024, Reagan National Airport shattered the DC record for the earliest 80-degree reading of the year by 26 days.  DCA reached exactly 80 today, and the previous record-holder was February 21st (2018), which reached 82.  Similarly, while Dulles International Airport fell a degree short of 80 today, it shattered the IAD record for the earliest 79-degree reading of the year by 26 days.  Again, the previous record-holder was February 21, 2018, which reached 80 at IAD.

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18 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Today, January 26, 2024, Reagan National Airport shattered the DC record for the earliest 80-degree reading of the year by 26 days.  DCA reached exactly 80 today, and the previous record-holder was February 21st (2018), which reached 82.  Similarly, while Dulles International Airport fell a degree short of 80 today, it shattered the IAD record for the earliest 79-degree reading of the year by 26 days.  Again, the previous record-holder was February 21, 2018, which reached 80 at IAD.

Rodney, I wonder how many times the top two temperatures for a month have happened on the same date.  We had that oddity yesterday with 1/26/50 previously being the high for the month.

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On 1/27/2024 at 12:54 PM, MN Transplant said:

Rodney, I wonder how many times the top two temperatures for a month have happened on the same date.  We had that oddity yesterday with 1/26/50 previously being the high for the month.

My research indicates that January is the only month in DC history where the two highest temperatures of a month have fallen on the same day.  Here is the complete list:  

January: Highest -- 26th of 2024 (80); second highest -- 26th of 1950 (79)

February: Highest -- 25th of 1930 (84); second highest (tie) -- 21st of 2018 and 28th of 1948 (82)  

March: Highest -- 23rd of 1907 (93); second highest -- 29th of 1907 (92)

April: Highest -- (tie) 17th of 2002, 18th of 1976, 23rd of 1960, and 27th of 1915 (95)

May: Highest -- 31st of 1991 (99); second highest -- 30th of 1991 (98)

June: Highest -- 29th of 2012 (104); second highest (tie) -- 9th of 2011 and 9th of 1874 (102)

July: Highest -- 20th of 1930 (106); second highest (tie) -- 7th of 2012 and 10th of 1936 (105)

August: Highest -- 6th of 1918 (106); second highest -- 17th of 1997 (105)

September: Highest -- 7th of 1881 (104); second highest -- 2nd of 1980 (101)

October: Highest -- 2nd of 2018 (98); second highest -- 5th of 1941 (96)

November: Highest -- 1st of 1974 (86); second highest -- 2nd of 1971 (85)

December: Highest -- 7th of 1998 (79); second highest -- 6th of 1998 (78)

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11 hours ago, RodneyS said:

My research indicates that January is the only month in DC history where the two highest temperatures of a month have fallen on the same day.  Here is the complete list:  

I have updated the list to add the lowest and second lowest temperatures of each month in DC.  Note how -- while record high temperatures have occurred more frequently in recent years -- they encompass essentially the entire period of record (1872-2024).  On the other hand, with a few exceptions, record low temperatures occurred almost entirely in the old days. 

January: Highest -- 26th of 2024 (80); second highest -- 26th of 1950 (79)

January: Lowest -- 1st of 1881 (-14); second lowest -- 14th of 1912 (-13)

February: Highest -- 25th of 1930 (84); second highest -- (tie) 21st of 2018 and 28th of 1948 (82)  

February: Lowest -- 11th of 1899 (-15); second lowest -- 10th of 1899 (-8)

March: Highest -- 23rd of 1907 (93); second highest -- 29th of 1907 (92)

March: Lowest -- 4th of 1873 (4); second lowest -- 5th of 1872 (5)

April: Highest -- (tie) 17th of 2002, 18th of 1976, 23rd of 1960, and 27th of 1915 (95)

April: Lowest -- 1st of 1923 (15); second lowest -- 19th of 1912 (22)

May: Highest -- 31st of 1991 (99); second highest -- 30th of 1991 (98)

May: Lowest -- 11th of 1906 (33); second lowest -- (tie) 9th of 1947 and 1st of 1876 (34)

June: Highest -- 29th of 2012 (104); second highest -- (tie) 9th of 2011 and 9th of 1874 (102)

June: Lowest -- 2nd of 1897 (43); second lowest -- (tie) 1st of 1938, 1st of 1930, 11th of 1913, 9th of 1913, 9th of 1912, 3rd of 1910, 9th of 1891 (45)

July: Highest -- 20th of 1930 (106); second highest -- (tie) 7th of 2012 and 10th of 1936 (105)

July: Lowest -- (tie) 4th of 1933, 4th of 1907, 31st of 1895 (52)

August: Highest -- 6th of 1918 (106); second highest -- 17th of 1997 (105)

August: Lowest -- (tie) 29th of 1986, 31st of 1934, and 24th of 1890 (49)

September: Highest -- 7th of 1881 (104); second highest -- 2nd of 1980 (101)

September: Lowest -- 23rd of 1904 (36); second lowest -- (tie) 30th of 1912 and 26th of 1879 (38)

October: Highest -- 2nd of 2018 (98); second highest -- 5th of 1941 (96)

October: Lowest -- (tie) 31st of 1917, 31st of 1893, 30th of 1873 (26)

November: Highest -- 1st of 1974 (86); second highest -- 2nd of 1971 (85)

November: Lowest -- 30th of 1929 (11); second lowest -- (tie) 23rd of 1880 and 22nd of 1880 (12)

December: Highest -- 7th of 1998 (79); second highest -- 6th of 1998 (78)

December: Lowest -- 31st of 1880 (-13); second lowest -- 30th of 1880 (-7)

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On 1/10/2024 at 3:30 PM, RodneyS said:

Interesting note from the Capital Weather Gang: "The 2.24 inches at Reagan National Airport, 1.76 inches at Dulles International Airport, and 2.62 inches at Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport were all record amounts for the date. That brings Washington’s total rainfall to 9.69 inches since Dec. 1, well past the previous high of 7.56 inches during the same period in 1901-1902, according to Capital Weather Gang’s Ian Livingston." See https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/01/10/dc-storm-flooding-record-rainfall

The precipitation slowed at DCA over the past three weeks, but still managed an additional 2.62 inches, to bring January precipitation there to 5.88 inches, good enough for the 7th-most in DC history. Moreover, the December-January total is now 12.31 inches, which is the most to start a meteorological winter in 87 years. That December 1936-January 1937 produced 13.06 inches in DC, and the only December-January to exceed that was way back in 1881-82, which recorded 13.21 inches.   

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On 1/31/2024 at 6:36 PM, RodneyS said:

The precipitation slowed at DCA over the past three weeks, but still managed an additional 2.62 inches, to bring January precipitation there to 5.88 inches, good enough for the 7th-most in DC history. Moreover, the December-January total is now 12.31 inches, which is the most to start a meteorological winter in 87 years. That December 1936-January 1937 produced 13.06 inches in DC, and the only December-January to exceed that was way back in 1881-82, which recorded 13.21 inches.   

Precipitation at DCA slowed way down in February, coming in at only 1.41 inches, which made it the 22nd driest of 154 Februaries in DC history. However, the meteorological winter total at DCA was 13.72 inches, making it the 12th wettest in DC history.  

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17 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Precipitation at DCA slowed way down in February, coming in at only 1.41 inches, which made it the 22nd driest of 154 Februaries in DC history. However, the meteorological winter total at DCA was 13.72 inches, making it the 12th wettest in DC history.  

While precipitation slowed at DCA in February, the warmth continued, with an average temperature of 44.4 degrees -- 7th warmest February in DC history. That brought the meteorological winter average to 43.2 degrees -- also 7th warmest in DC history.  So, the 2023-24 DCA meteorological winter is easy to summarize -- warm and wet.

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On 3/20/2023 at 9:07 PM, RodneyS said:

The 2022-23 astronomical winter (December 21-March 20) and composite winter (December 1-March 20) at DCA followed suit, with each also coming as the third warmest in DC history.  The former averaged 44.8 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.9 and 2019-20 at 45.5.  The latter averaged 44.3 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.6 and 2019-20 at 44.6.

The 2023-24 astronomical and composite winters were each warmer than last season at DCA.  The former displaced last season as the third warmest in DC history, averaging 45.2 degrees; while the latter displaced 2019-20 as the second warmest in DC history, averaging 45.1 degrees.

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On 2/29/2024 at 6:38 PM, RodneyS said:

Precipitation at DCA slowed way down in February, coming in at only 1.41 inches, which made it the 22nd driest of 154 Februaries in DC history. However, the meteorological winter total at DCA was 13.72 inches, making it the 12th wettest in DC history.  

Precipitation at DCA rebounded in March to 4.89 inches, making it the 26th wettest in DC history. Moreover, December 2023-March 2024 precipitation at DCA totaled 18.61 inches, making it the 10th wettest in DC history and the wettest since 1993-1994, which totaled 21.31 (4th).  The wettest December-March is 1890-91, which totaled 23.21.  

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On 3/21/2024 at 10:57 AM, RodneyS said:

The 2023-24 astronomical and composite winters were each warmer than last season at DCA.  The former displaced last season as the third warmest in DC history, averaging 45.2 degrees; while the latter displaced 2019-20 as the second warmest in DC history, averaging 45.1 degrees.

April 2024 averaged 60.5 degrees at DCA, 10th warmest in DC history, but behind last year's 62.1 (3rd warmest).  January-April 2024 at DCA averaged 49.1 degrees, 4th warmest in DC history, but again behind last year's 50.8 (warmest in DC history).

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1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

April 2024 averaged 60.5 degrees at DCA, 10th warmest in DC history, but behind last year's 62.1 (3rd warmest).  January-April 2024 at DCA averaged 49.1 degrees, 4th warmest in DC history, but again behind last year's 50.8 (warmest in DC history).

The bad thing is like every other month, 4 warmer Aprils have occurred from 2010. So it's only the 5th warmest in the last 15 years. 2009 or earlier, this would have been 6th warmest and certainly would have got a prominent mention on the NWS website and Facebook. Now it probably won't even get noted. And recent transplants just think it's normal because 4 recent years have been even warmer.

 

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Also 4th warmest first 4 months on record. This shows 5th but doesn't include today. With today factored in, it will increase by at least the requisite 0.1F. I didn't run the numbers myself, so I don't know the exact number. But it will certainly increase to at least 49.0F. On the same token, it's only 4th warmest in the past 13 years. :unsure:

image.png.e1f69eaec7a585a2d37d6d57f118d458.png

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Gets even more depressing when you look at the cold years. It used to be common for the first 4 months of the year to average 36-39F in the 19th century and early 20th century.

image.png.462228c35f3dd81000bb039ee68609f9.png

This isn't too dissimilar to recent years in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Elevation over 2000 feet on the border with New York surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest, with an average snowfall over 100 inches per year.

image.png.b5563cf75db584aca56b0c77f7b4e736.png

A better comparison might be to Elkins, West Virginia, which is at a similar latitude but near 2000 feet of elevation. Many recent years have been several degrees warmer in the winter and early spring than many of these early years in Washington, DC.

image.png.c9f2aa88526257fe5afbfde6b3154665.png

I don't think anyone would believe if you said the ridges are now several degrees warmer than DC used to be in the winter and early spring. But that is in fact what the actual data reveals. Obviously, a bit misleading to just look at specific years. But the most recent 9 years at Elkins - a location with an average annual snowfall of nearly 70 inches - matches the 30-year average from 1875 to 1904 in Washington, DC.

DC (1875-1904)

image.png.ea4a48929a994294b3e7f9a26c6975e5.png

Elkins, WV (last 9 years)

image.png.4063a4b2cb7657cc0904195ebc6f294c.png

Obviously some of the warming at DC might be attributable to urban heat island effect. But there is no UHI in Bradford or Elkins. There were far, far more people living in DC in 1900 than there are in the entirety of Randolph County, West Virginia (pop: 27k) or McKean County, Pennsylvania (pop: 40k) in the year of our lord 2024. So really if anything the old DC numbers would be inflated relative to the readings at these locations today.

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On 4/30/2024 at 8:16 PM, RodneyS said:

April 2024 averaged 60.5 degrees at DCA, 10th warmest in DC history, but behind last year's 62.1 (3rd warmest).  January-April 2024 at DCA averaged 49.1 degrees, 4th warmest in DC history, but again behind last year's 50.8 (warmest in DC history).

May 2024 averaged 69.3 degrees at DCA, tied for 16th warmest in DC history (2015 is warmest at 73.2 and 1882 is coolest at 59.2).  January-May 2024 at DCA averaged 53.2, 4th warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (54.4), 2023 (53.7), and 2017 (53.3). 

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On 5/31/2024 at 5:57 PM, RodneyS said:

May 2024 averaged 69.3 degrees at DCA, tied for 16th warmest in DC history (2015 is warmest at 73.2 and 1882 is coolest at 59.2).  January-May 2024 at DCA averaged 53.2, 4th warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (54.4), 2023 (53.7), and 2017 (53.3). 

June 2024 averaged 79.7 degrees at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history behind 2010, which averaged 80.6 (1907 is coolest at 65.9). January-June 2024 at DCA averaged 57.6, the 2nd warmest first half in DC history, behind 2012 at 58.0. The first half of 2017 is third warmest at 57.3 and last year is 4th warmest at 57.1. 

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On 7/1/2024 at 10:26 AM, RodneyS said:

June 2024 averaged 79.7 degrees at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history behind 2010, which averaged 80.6 (1907 is coolest at 65.9). January-June 2024 at DCA averaged 57.6, the 2nd warmest first half in DC history, behind 2012 at 58.0. The first half of 2017 is third warmest at 57.3 and last year is 4th warmest at 57.1. 

The 2024 first half of the 92-day Northern Hemisphere meteorological summer (June 1-July 16, which encompasses 46 days) broke the all-time DC record for the warmest average, with a temperature of 81.7 at DCA, beating the previous record average of 81.0, set in 2010.

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On 7/1/2024 at 10:26 AM, RodneyS said:

June 2024 averaged 79.7 degrees at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history behind 2010, which averaged 80.6 (1907 is coolest at 65.9). January-June 2024 at DCA averaged 57.6, the 2nd warmest first half in DC history, behind 2012 at 58.0. The first half of 2017 is third warmest at 57.3 and last year is 4th warmest at 57.1. 

July 2024 averaged 83.7 degrees at DCA, 4th warmest in DC history behind 2011 (84.5), 2012 (84.0), and 2020 (83.9).  June-July 2024 averaged 81.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2010 (81.8). January-July 2024 averaged 61.4 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (61.8). 

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On 1/7/2018 at 10:29 AM, RodneyS said:

Dulles fell below zero this morning for the first time since February 24, 2015.  This morning's reading of -1 broke the record for January 7th of +1 that was set in 2014.

This morning we set a daily low temperature record at Dulles for the first time since the above one, which was more than six and a half years ago. Today's morning low of 49 beat the previous August 22nd record of 51, which was set in 1969 and equaled in 1976. 

FYI, on June 20, 2022 Dulles tied the June 20th low temperature record of 48 set in 2000, but failed to break that record. 

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59 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

This morning we set a daily low temperature record at Dulles for the first time since the above one, which was more than six and a half years ago. Today's morning low of 49 beat the previous August 22nd record of 51, which was set in 1969 and equaled in 1976. 

FYI, on June 20, 2022 Dulles tied the June 20th low temperature record of 48 set in 2000, but failed to break that record. 

Summer record lows are the best record lows.

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On 7/31/2024 at 8:06 PM, RodneyS said:

July 2024 averaged 83.7 degrees at DCA, 4th warmest in DC history behind 2011 (84.5), 2012 (84.0), and 2020 (83.9).  June-July 2024 averaged 81.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2010 (81.8). January-July 2024 averaged 61.4 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (61.8). 

August 2024 averaged 79.3 degrees at DCA -- 0.1 below the 1991-2020 normal and tied with 2015 for the 28th warmest August in DC history.  The meteorological summer (June-August) 2024 averaged 80.9 at DCA, third warmest in DC history, behind 2010 (81.2) and 2011 (81.1). January-August 2024 averaged 63.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.2). 

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On 8/31/2024 at 6:16 PM, RodneyS said:

August 2024 averaged 79.3 degrees at DCA -- 0.1 below the 1991-2020 normal and tied with 2015 for the 28th warmest August in DC history.  The meteorological summer (June-August) 2024 averaged 80.9 at DCA, third warmest in DC history, behind 2010 (81.2) and 2011 (81.1). January-August 2024 averaged 63.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.2). 

September 2024 averaged 72.6 degrees at DCA -- 0.2 above the 1991-2020 normal and tied with 1965, 1983, and 2017 for the 32nd warmest September in DC history. January-September 2024 averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1). 

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21 hours ago, RodneyS said:

September 2024 averaged 72.6 degrees at DCA -- 0.2 above the 1991-2020 normal and tied with 1965, 1983, and 2017 for the 32nd warmest September in DC history. January-September 2024 averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1). 

Correction: September 2024 averaged 72.5 degrees at DCA -- 0.1 above the 1991-2020 normal and the 36th warmest September in DC history. (January-September 2024 still averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1).) 

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On 10/1/2024 at 8:42 PM, RodneyS said:

Correction: September 2024 averaged 72.5 degrees at DCA -- 0.1 above the 1991-2020 normal and the 36th warmest September in DC history. (January-September 2024 still averaged 64.7 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (65.1).) 

October 2024 averaged 63.0 degrees at DCA -- 2.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal and tied for the 15th warmest October in DC history. January-October 2024 averaged 64.5 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.7).

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15 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Gut feeling is the lows are warmer than normal. I dont remember a ton of super hot days but it feels like it never really cools off at night.

For October? For the airports and city, maybe (quick in-precise check, looks like DCA had 14 nights above avg.)

But we've had a couple stretches of multiple <40 degree nights. Here, one of those was 5 straight nights of temps in the 30s. 100% sure other places fared better. I think that's not too shabby for October around here....

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On 11/1/2024 at 10:25 AM, Its a Breeze said:

For October? For the airports and city, maybe (quick in-precise check, looks like DCA had 14 nights above avg.)

But we've had a couple stretches of multiple <40 degree nights. Here, one of those was 5 straight nights of temps in the 30s. 100% sure other places fared better. I think that's not too shabby for October around here....

Your point is well-taken.  I just did an analysis that shows that the DCA October 2024 average maximum of 73.0 (3.6 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 8th warmest in DC history.  On the other hand, the DCA October 2024 average minimum of 53.0 (0.8 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal) tied for the 27th warmest in DC history.  So, in contrast to many recent months over many recent years, the average maximum was much further above the recent normal than the average minimum was.

As a personal observation, when you couple the DCA October 2024 maximum range of 60 to 83 degrees and the minimum range of 44 to 67 degrees with only 1.48 inches of precipitation (all of which fell on the first two days of the month), a case can be made that October 2024 was the best month in DC history for sunny and pleasant weather. 

 

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On 10/31/2024 at 5:33 PM, RodneyS said:

October 2024 averaged 63.0 degrees at DCA -- 2.2 degrees above the 1991-2020 normal and tied for the 15th warmest October in DC history. January-October 2024 averaged 64.5 at DCA, 2nd warmest in DC history, behind 2012 (64.7).

November 2024 at DCA has for sure broken the record high average November DC temperature of 54.8 degrees, which was set in 2001.  DCA finished at 55.2, which resulted in a record high January-November average of 63.6, beating the previous 11-month record of 63.1, which was set in 2012.  That puts DCA on course to break the previous DC calendar year record of 61.6, also set in 2012.  All that is needed is for DCA to average 39.0 degrees or higher in December -- 39.0 would be 2.7 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal.          

Note:  Edited on December 1st because the final November 2024 DCA temperature average was 55.2, rather than 55.1 

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