Our region's extreme run

[RodneyS]

15 hours ago, RodneyS said:

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.8 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

The 2022-23 meteorological winter (DJF) at DCA was the third warmest in DC history, averaging 43.9 degrees on a true (90 day average) basis.  Interestingly, two long-ago winters have it beat -- 1931-32 (91 days) averaged 44.7 and 1889-90 (90 days) averaged 44.3.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'm calculating the unweighted DJF average for BWI to be 42.0, which is tied for 4th warmest with 1880 and 1950. 

[RodneyS]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm calculating the unweighted DJF average for BWI to be 42.0, which is tied for 4th warmest with 1880 and 1950. 

It's interesting that the Good Old Days also had some very warm winters -- it's just that they were much less frequent than nowadays.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

24 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

It's interesting that the Good Old Days also had some very warm winters -- it's just that they were much less frequent than nowadays.

Late 1940's / early 1950's seemed to be an incredibly warm and bad stretch too: The 1948-49 winter was 3rd warmest, and 1949-50 was tied for 4th warmest. 1949-50 was also the least snowiest year on record for BWI. Somehow 1948-49 managed to score 19.9" despite being so warm though. 1950 did feature a colder than average March after the DJF torch though. 

[RodneyS]

On 3/1/2023 at 9:29 AM, RodneyS said:

The 2022-23 meteorological winter (DJF) at DCA was the third warmest in DC history, averaging 43.9 degrees on a true (90 day average) basis.  Interestingly, two long-ago winters have it beat -- 1931-32 (91 days) averaged 44.7 and 1889-90 (90 days) averaged 44.3.

The 2022-23 astronomical winter (December 21-March 20) and composite winter (December 1-March 20) at DCA followed suit, with each also coming as the third warmest in DC history.  The former averaged 44.8 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.9 and 2019-20 at 45.5.  The latter averaged 44.3 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.6 and 2019-20 at 44.6.

[dallen7908]

Yet another excuse if 2023-2024 fails to deliver. 

 

"When Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai (HTHH) erupted in January 2022, it shot the standard volcanic cocktail of ash, gas, and pulverized rock into the sky. But the eruption included one extra ingredient that’s now causing climate concerns: a significant splash of ocean water. The underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere like a geyser, potentially contributing to atmospheric warming over the next 5 years, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said." 

[WxUSAF]

More than the direct warming from Hunga-Tonga, the water vapor getting into the winter stratospheric polar vortex will on balance tend to strengthen it. We already saw that in the southern hemisphere last year, with record cold winter vortex temps. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

More than the direct warming from Hunga-Tonga, the water vapor getting into the winter stratospheric polar vortex will on balance tend to strengthen it. We already saw that in the southern hemisphere last year, with record cold winter vortex temps. 

Before the SSWE, I thought vortex was pretty strong this winter. Siberia had record cold much of Jan and Feb

[fujiwara79]

On 3/20/2023 at 9:07 PM, RodneyS said:

The 2022-23 astronomical winter (December 21-March 20) and composite winter (December 1-March 20) at DCA followed suit, with each also coming as the third warmest in DC history.  The former averaged 44.8 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.9 and 2019-20 at 45.5.  The latter averaged 44.3 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.6 and 2019-20 at 44.6.

2011-12 was even worse than this winter.  The only snow I saw was from Hurricane Sandy around Halloween.

[RodneyS]

On 2/28/2023 at 5:52 PM, RodneyS said:

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.8 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

March 2023 averaged 49.1 degrees at DCA, 26th warmest March in DC history.  However, because March 2012 was the warmest March all-time in DC at 56.8, January-March 2023 is only the second warmest quarterly start to a calendar year, at 47.0 degrees-- January-March 2012 averaged 47.3.

[RodneyS]

On 3/31/2023 at 10:23 PM, RodneyS said:

March 2023 averaged 49.1 degrees at DCA, 26th warmest March in DC history.  However, because March 2012 was the warmest March all-time in DC at 56.8, January-March 2023 is only the second warmest quarterly start to a calendar year, at 47.0 degrees-- January-March 2012 averaged 47.3.

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

[MN Transplant]

5 hours ago, RodneyS said:

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

Blazing start to the year.

[RodneyS]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:31 AM, RodneyS said:

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

May 2023 provided a sharp contrast to the prior four months at DCA, averaging just 65.0 degrees -- tied for 75th all-time warmest May in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-May 2023 dropped to the second warmest 5-month (151-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 53.7 degrees -- falling behind January-May 2012 (152 days) at 54.4 degrees.

[RodneyS]

On 5/31/2023 at 6:52 PM, RodneyS said:

May 2023 provided a sharp contrast to the prior four months at DCA, averaging just 65.0 degrees -- tied for 75th all-time warmest May in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-May 2023 dropped to the second warmest 5-month (151-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 53.7 degrees -- falling behind January-May 2012 (152 days) at 54.4 degrees.

June 2023 at DCA followed suit with May, averaging only 74.1 degrees -- tied for 76th all-time warmest June in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-June 2023 dropped further behind 2012, and also fell behind 2017, for the warmest first half of a calendar year in DC.  Specifically, the first half of 2023 (181 days) averaged 57.1 degrees at DCA, behind 2012 (182 days) at 58.0 and 2017 (181 days) at 57.3.

[RodneyS]

Despite the intense heat in much of the Northern Hemisphere this summer, DCA has yet to record its first 95-degree or higher day. The last time that failed to occur at DCA by July 21st was 2004, when the hottest temperature recorded all year was just 92.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/29/2012 at 4:32 PM, Bob Chill said:

Good work with the stats. I'd be interested how locations removed from urban heat islands stack up with the same stats. Breaking warmth records seems easy in DC nowadays but I wonder if the data is skewed a bit by the heat island effect.

Here are the Top Ten warmest years at several other sites in the greater Mid-Atlantic region. This runaway urban heat island effect is serious sh*t.

Charlottesville, VA - 7 of top 10 since 2012

Clarksburg, WV - 8 of top 10 since 2012, 9 of top 10 since 2005

Hagerstown, MD - 8 of top 10 since 2010

Morgantown, WV - 6 of top 10 since 2012

 

Elkins, WV - 6 of top 10 since 2012, 7 since 2005

Martinsburg, WV - not sure what was going on with the sensor in the late 90s, but still 4 of top 10 since 2011

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/11/2017 at 7:06 AM, PCT_ATC said:

Need to rename the title of this thread to the NEW NORMAL

Careful. If there's one thing I've learned in my 25-odd years in these weather communities, it's that you need to use euphemisms like "extreme run" or "runaway urban heat island effect" or the "never-ending runaway Lezak recurring warm cycle."

[TheClimateChanger]

The "extreme run" has continued into 2023. Here are some rankings for smaller communities in the greater Mid-Atlantic region. One thing that's interesting is when you look at shorter time frames, you tend to get more years in the past. However, in that era, there would be cooler periods that would often drop them in the rankings. In the current "extreme run" era, the heat is just relentless.

Clarksburg, WV - 2nd warmest to date

Elkins, WV - 6th warmest to date

Morgantown, WV - 7th warmest to date

Hagerstown, MD - 4th warmest to date

Charlottesville, VA - 3rd warmest to date

[NOTE: A lot of missing data for 1930 & 1932. Since this is calculated by averaging days, those years may be inflated if the missing data is from early in the year when mean temps are cooler.]

[TheClimateChanger]

Also, Elkins (~2000 feet) had its second least snowy winter on record in 2022-2023. Elkins was poised to obliterate the 1931-32 record, but some late season snowfall pushed last winter into a close 2nd place.

Below is the top 20 least snowy winters in Elkins. A lot of them are quite old, and I think some of that is attributable to changing measurement techniques. In the past, it was common just to measure depth changes or attribute a 10:1 ratio to the melted snow. They certainly weren't using snowboards. Regardless, 4 of the top 20 have occurred in fairly recent years. If it simply doesn't snow, it doesn't matter how the measuring techniques have changed, because there's no snowfall to inflate.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 3/1/2023 at 1:24 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Late 1940's / early 1950's seemed to be an incredibly warm and bad stretch too: The 1948-49 winter was 3rd warmest, and 1949-50 was tied for 4th warmest. 1949-50 was also the least snowiest year on record for BWI. Somehow 1948-49 managed to score 19.9" despite being so warm though. 1950 did feature a colder than average March after the DJF torch though. 

The big difference was those winters were ridiculously cold out west. Several recent winters have just been coast-to-coast blowtorches.

1950 also finished out as a pretty chilly year overall, capped by The Great Appalachian Snowstorm with unprecedented November cold and snow.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 12/21/2015 at 12:55 PM, MN Transplant said:

 

Probably about the same way we handle the fact that some of the old observations were taken multiple stories up in a building in a completely different part of town.  Ignore it.

Agreed - that was a bunch of nonsense peddled by CWG, as per usual. No mention of the HO-83 hygrothermometer in use at all of the airports from the mid 80s until mid/late 90s, which had a warm bias in excess of that amount - particularly, for daytime maxima in light wind and sunshine. A lot of heat records set during that era, particularly in the summertime. But we have blasted past those years.

To analogize to baseball and the steroid era, it would be akin to a bunch of players, not using steroids, suddenly hitting 80-90 home runs every year. And Barry Bonds' record was being eclipsed regularly.

The difference between IAD and DCA this year is 2.7F, which if it holds would be the ninth smallest difference between the two sites on record. The difference this month has been just 1.5F. No calls for an investigation. No national scandal. Wonder why?

[RodneyS]

On 6/30/2023 at 9:04 PM, RodneyS said:

June 2023 at DCA followed suit with May, averaging only 74.1 degrees -- tied for 76th all-time warmest June in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-June 2023 dropped further behind 2012, and also fell behind 2017, for the warmest first half of a calendar year in DC.  Specifically, the first half of 2023 (181 days) averaged 57.1 degrees at DCA, behind 2012 (182 days) at 58.0 and 2017 (181 days) at 57.3.

July 2023 at DCA came in slightly above the 1991-2020 normal, at 81.6 degrees, but that was lower than July 2012 (84.0) and July 2017 (81.7).  So, the first seven months of 2023 slipped further behind those two years, with an average temperature of 60.7 degrees, versus 61.8 for the first seven months of 2012 and 60.9 for the first seven months of 2017. 

[RodneyS]

On 7/31/2023 at 5:55 PM, RodneyS said:

July 2023 at DCA came in slightly above the 1991-2020 normal, at 81.6 degrees, but that was lower than July 2012 (84.0) and July 2017 (81.7).  So, the first seven months of 2023 slipped further behind those two years, with an average temperature of 60.7 degrees, versus 61.8 for the first seven months of 2012 and 60.9 for the first seven months of 2017. 

August 2023 at DCA came in below the 1991-2020 normal, at 78.7 degrees, which was lower than August 2012 (81.0), but higher than August 2017 (77.4).  So, the first eight months of 2023 slipped further behind 2012, with an average temperature of 62.96 degrees versus 64.22 for the first eight months of 2012. However, that 62.96 was barely below the 62.97 for the first eight months of 2017. 

[RodneyS]

A remarkable 4-day run at Dulles.  In the 60 Septembers prior to 2023 at IAD, only three 99-degree readings had been recorded, with no September day exceeding 99.  Beginning Sunday (9-3-2023), we have reached 99, 99, 99, and 100 on consecutive days.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

BWI's first half of the year was second-hottest behind 2012, and that was with a below-average May and June. July and August were above-average, and we may have a serious shot at hottest September ever, so I'm issuing a Hottest Year on Record Watch for BWI. 

[RodneyS]

On 9/1/2023 at 7:11 AM, RodneyS said:

August 2023 at DCA came in below the 1991-2020 normal, at 78.7 degrees, which was lower than August 2012 (81.0), but higher than August 2017 (77.4).  So, the first eight months of 2023 slipped further behind 2012, with an average temperature of 62.96 degrees versus 64.22 for the first eight months of 2012. However, that 62.96 was barely below the 62.97 for the first eight months of 2017. 

September 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 73.4 degrees, which was higher than both September 2012 (72.2) and September 2017 (72.6).  So, the first nine months of 2023 gained on both 2012 and 2017, with an average temperature of 64.1 degrees versus 65.1 for the first nine months of 2012 and 64.0 for the first nine months of 2017.  Thus, while 2023 is averaging about a degree cooler per day than 2012 did during its first nine months, 2023 is averaging a tad warmer than 2017 did during its first nine months. 

[Its a Breeze]

On 9/30/2023 at 6:52 PM, RodneyS said:

September 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 73.4 degrees. 

Which is incredible. 5 days (3rd - 7th) were so above average, that it made the whole month above normal.

Had those days been 'normal', we would have been below average for the month.

[RodneyS]

On 9/30/2023 at 6:52 PM, RodneyS said:

September 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 73.4 degrees, which was higher than both September 2012 (72.2) and September 2017 (72.6).  So, the first nine months of 2023 gained on both 2012 and 2017, with an average temperature of 64.1 degrees versus 65.1 for the first nine months of 2012 and 64.0 for the first nine months of 2017.  Thus, while 2023 is averaging about a degree cooler per day than 2012 did during its first nine months, 2023 is averaging a tad warmer than 2017 did during its first nine months. 

October 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 63.1 degrees, which was higher than October 2012 (61.0), but lower than October 2017 (64.9).  So, the first 10 months of 2023 gained on 2012, but fell behind 2017, with an average temperature of 64.0 degrees versus 64.7 for the first 10 months of 2012 and 64.1 for the first 10 months of 2017.  2023 could still be the warmest year ever in DC, if it were to average about 50 degrees during November and December. Under that circumstance, the final two months of 2023 would be the third warmest ever, behind only 2015 (52.5) and 2001 (50.2).

[RodneyS]

On 10/31/2023 at 7:24 PM, RodneyS said:

October 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 63.1 degrees, which was higher than October 2012 (61.0), but lower than October 2017 (64.9).  So, the first 10 months of 2023 gained on 2012, but fell behind 2017, with an average temperature of 64.0 degrees versus 64.7 for the first 10 months of 2012 and 64.1 for the first 10 months of 2017.  2023 could still be the warmest year ever in DC, if it were to average about 50 degrees during November and December. Under that circumstance, the final two months of 2023 would be the third warmest ever, behind only 2015 (52.5) and 2001 (50.2).

November 2023 at DCA came in slightly below the 1991-2020 normal, at 49.6 degrees, which was higher than November 2012 (46.6), but lower than November 2017 (49.8).  So, the first 11 months of 2023 gained a little on 2012, but edged further behind 2017, with an average temperature of 62.7 degrees versus 63.1 for the first 11 months of 2012 and 62.8 for the first 11 months of 2017.  However, because December 2012 was quite warm at DCA (45.3) and December 2017 was relatively cold there (39.2), 2023 will very likely finish behind 2012, while probably finishing ahead of 2017.  Specifically, if December 2023 averages between 40.4-49.1 degrees at DCA (1991-2020 normal is 41.7), 2023 will finish as the second warmest calendar year in DC history.  For 2023 to beat 2012 as the warmest calendar year in DC history, December 2023 at DCA would have to be the second warmest meteorological winter month in DC history, behind only December 2015 (51.2)

[RodneyS]

On 11/30/2023 at 5:49 PM, RodneyS said:

November 2023 at DCA came in slightly below the 1991-2020 normal, at 49.6 degrees, which was higher than November 2012 (46.6), but lower than November 2017 (49.8).  So, the first 11 months of 2023 gained a little on 2012, but edged further behind 2017, with an average temperature of 62.7 degrees versus 63.1 for the first 11 months of 2012 and 62.8 for the first 11 months of 2017.  However, because December 2012 was quite warm at DCA (45.3) and December 2017 was relatively cold there (39.2), 2023 will very likely finish behind 2012, while probably finishing ahead of 2017.  Specifically, if December 2023 averages between 40.4-49.1 degrees at DCA (1991-2020 normal is 41.7), 2023 will finish as the second warmest calendar year in DC history.  For 2023 to beat 2012 as the warmest calendar year in DC history, December 2023 at DCA would have to be the second warmest meteorological winter month in DC history, behind only December 2015 (51.2)

2023 gave it a good try, but could not quite catch 2012 for the warmest calendar year ever in DC.  December 2023 at DCA finished at 45.5 degrees, tied for the 5th warmest December in DC history.  However, that brought the yearly average only to 61.3 degrees, vs 61.6 in 2012.  2023 did displace 2017 (60.8) as the 2nd warmest in DC history.