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Our region's extreme run


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  • 1 month later...
On 11/16/2018 at 10:00 AM, donsutherland1 said:

4th with 58.58" precipitation. That record is within reach. The record is 61.33", which was established in 1889.

Not only within reach, but based on historical DC precipitation averages for November 18-December 31, we would receive another 4.28 inches through year's end, bringing the total to 62.86 inches.  Further, AccuWeather currently is projecting an additional 4.39 inches in DC through year's end. Cautionary note: While, as Don says, 1889 was the all-time wettest in DC history, oddly enough December 1889 was the driest DC December ever, at only 0.19 inches.  

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45 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Not only within reach, but based on historical DC precipitation averages for November 18-December 31, we would receive another 4.28 inches through year's end, bringing the total to 62.86 inches.  Further, AccuWeather currently is projecting an additional 4.39 inches in DC through year's end. Cautionary note: While, as Don says, 1889 was the all-time wettest in DC history, oddly enough December 1889 was the driest DC December ever, at only 0.19 inches.  

I expect DC to set a new record. I would be quite surprised if it didn’t.

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On 11/16/2018 at 10:00 AM, donsutherland1 said:

4th with 58.58" precipitation. That record is within reach. The record is 61.33", which was established in 1889.

With today's 1.42 inches at DCA, the yearly total now stands at an even 60 inches -- still 4th all-time in DC, but now a strong likelihood to break the record.  Even assuming no more precipitation in November, DCA would need only 1.34 inches in December to do so.  In the previous 147 Decembers in official DC precipitation history, only 17 times has precipitation been less than that.  Moreover, should DCA record only 0.08 inches more this month, that would break the all-time DC November record of 7.18 inches, set in 1877.

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9 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

With today's 1.42 inches at DCA, the yearly total now stands at an even 60 inches -- still 4th all-time in DC, but now a strong likelihood to break the record.  Even assuming no more precipitation in November, DCA would need only 1.34 inches in December to do so.  In the previous 147 Decembers in official DC precipitation history, only 17 times has precipitation been less than that.  Moreover, should DCA record only 0.08 inches more this month, that would break the all-time DC November record of 7.18 inches, set in 1877.

I believe there's a pretty good chance that both the November and annual precipitation records will be broken.

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On 11/24/2018 at 8:35 PM, donsutherland1 said:

I believe there's a pretty good chance that both the November and annual precipitation records will be broken.

Not sure whether we're done for the day, but DCA already has recorded 0.44 inches of precipitation, bringing the November total to a DC record 7.55 inches.  So, one record down, one to go -- DCA needs just 0.9 inches between now and the end of the year to break the annual record.  Every December except nine in DC weather history has seen at least that much. 

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25 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

Not sure whether we're done for the day, but DCA already has recorded 0.44 inches of precipitation, bringing the November total to a DC record 7.55 inches.  So, one record down, one to go -- DCA needs just 0.9 inches between now and the end of the year to break the annual record.  Every December except nine in DC weather history has seen at least that much. 

Even as most or all of the precipitation today is done, I expect Washington to easily surpass its existing annual precipitation record.

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On 11/26/2018 at 1:18 PM, RodneyS said:

Not sure whether we're done for the day, but DCA already has recorded 0.44 inches of precipitation, bringing the November total to a DC record 7.55 inches.  So, one record down, one to go -- DCA needs just 0.9 inches between now and the end of the year to break the annual record.  Every December except nine in DC weather history has seen at least that much. 

November 2018 precipitation at DCA appears to be finalized at 7.57 inches, leaving the annual total of 60.46 inches there just 0.87 inches shy of the 1877 DC annual record.  As 138 of 147 previous Decembers in the official precipitation history of DC have exceeded 0.87 inches, the odds of breaking the record are about 94%.  Also, the second half of 2018 (July-December) DCA precipitation total of 35.28 inches has already broken the second half record of 33.55 inches set in 1878.

Additionally, November 2018 average temperature at DCA appears finalized at 46.5 degrees, which is 3.1 degrees below the 1981-2010 normal, and the lowest average November temperature there since 1997. 

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On 12/6/2018 at 12:11 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I think DCA needs another 0.56" to break the record now, right? Looks like they had 0.32" Dec 1-2. I'm getting slightly concerned that we're gonna find a way to fail at this now lol

@RodneyS

That's right -- not a done deal yet, especially with the big southern snowstorm staying to the south of DC.  For what it's worth, AccuWeather is currently projecting 1.23 inches at DCA through month's end.  However, only 0.28 inches is projected there through December 19th, and long-range precipitation forecasts are not exactly sure things. ;) 

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On 12/8/2018 at 8:55 PM, RodneyS said:

That's right -- not a done deal yet, especially with the big southern snowstorm staying to the south of DC.  For what it's worth, AccuWeather is currently projecting 1.23 inches at DCA through month's end.  However, only 0.28 inches is projected there through December 19th, and long-range precipitation forecasts are not exactly sure things. ;) 

AccuWeather's shorter term forecast was too low, and DCA broke the all-time DC record between 5:52-6:52 this morning.  We now (as of 7:52 AM) are up to 61.40 inches of precipitation for the year vs the previous record of 61.33 inches set in 1889.

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4 hours ago, RodneyS said:

AccuWeather's shorter term forecast was too low, and DCA broke the all-time DC record between 5:52-6:52 this morning.  We now (as of 7:52 AM) are up to 61.40 inches of precipitation for the year vs the previous record of 61.33 inches set in 1889.

Where are we on IAD? They have 1.33” for this system so far by my count.

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On 12/15/2018 at 12:49 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Where are we on IAD? They have 1.33” for this system so far by my count.

Timely question, as the IAD record is 65.67 inches, set in 2003.  The total through today for 2018 is 64.36 inches.  So, IAD is closing in on the record, but still needs 1.32 inches to break it.

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12 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Nice- we have a legit shot at this now with the late week storm coming too.

Again, for what little it may be worth, AccuWeather is currently projecting 1.53 inches of precipitation through year's end at Dulles, which would exceed the annual record there by 0.21 inches.

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3 hours ago, RodneyS said:

That's correct.  And nothing all that promising on the immediate horizon -- AccuWeather is now projecting only 0.2 inches at Dulles through year end. 

IAD’s in the red zone but misses the game-winning field goal lol

There’s a chance of rain tomorrow night, but probably the last significant chance to win would be the Thursday/Friday system.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/22/2018 at 5:09 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

IAD’s in the red zone but misses the game-winning field goal lol

There’s a chance of rain tomorrow night, but probably the last significant chance to win would be the Thursday/Friday system.

I've been away for a few days, but I just discovered that IAD broke the annual precipitation record on Friday, with 1.08 inches.  It has now added 0.52 inches today, and so the current total is 66.73 inches, which exceeds the previous record by 1.06 inches. Both IAD and DCA figure to get a little more rain before midnight, and so I'll post the final 2018 totals tomorrow morning. 

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I did a Python analysis on Baltimore's precip totals, just cause I felt like it, and it turns out that 2018 single-handedly wrecked the normal distribution. Precip totals are now skewed to the right. Sometimes one extreme outlier is all it takes.

Baltimore's final total of 71.82" is over 4 standard deviations above the long-term pre-2018 average.

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13 hours ago, RodneyS said:

I've been away for a few days, but I just discovered that IAD broke the annual precipitation record on Friday, with 1.08 inches.  It has now added 0.52 inches today, and so the current total is 66.73 inches, which exceeds the previous record by 1.06 inches. Both IAD and DCA figure to get a little more rain before midnight, and so I'll post the final 2018 totals tomorrow morning. 

The final 2018 figures are 66.74 inches at IAD and 66.28 inches at DCA.  The IAD total broke the 2003 record by 1.07 inches and the DCA total broke the 1889 record by 4.95 inches. 

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