Our region's extreme run

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Another good one: February 2017's average temperature at BWI (44.2 degrees) would still be 0.6 degrees above average had it occurred in March.

[RodneyS]

On 2/28/2017 at 6:17 PM, RodneyS said:

Here are the February 2017 average temperatures for DCA and IAD:  DCA -- 47.7 degrees vs previous DC record high of 46.9 in 1976.  IAD -- 44.8 vs. previous record high of 42.2 in 1990. IAD also broke its meteorological winter average high temperature record of 40.0 set in 2011-12, with a Dec-Feb average of 40.7.  Finally, DCA broke its previous meteorological winter average high temperature record of 43.4 set in 2011-12, with an average of 43.8, but did not break the all-time DC record of 44.7 set in 1931-32 nor equal the 2nd place DC record of 44.3 established in 1889-90. 

By the way, DCA's February 2017 average temperature of 47.7 is third all-time warmest for meteorological winter monthly temperatures in DC, behind only December 2015 at 51.2 and January 1950 at 48.0.  At Dulles, the February 2017 average temperature of 44.8 is second all-time warmest for meteorological winter, behind only December 2015 at 48.7.

[Fozz]

I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense.

I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

27 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense.

I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.

I'm not home right now but I'll look into it for BWI and get back to you. I'm curious myself now.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Here you go:

 

March colder than February (7 instances + 1 tie):

1883 (tied), 1887, 1890, 1891, 1909, 1932, 1960, 1984

 

March colder than January (11 instances):

1876, 1880, 1890, 1906, 1916, 1932, 1933, 1937, 1947, 1950, 1960

 

March colder than previous December (19 instances):

1885, 1890, 1892, 1896, 1906, 1912, 1914, 1924, 1932, 1940, 1941, 1947, 1950, 1957, 1960, 1972, 2013, 2014, 2015

Surprisingly, 2016 didn’t make the list here- even though December 2015 was the hottest December ever, March 2016 was also 6^th hottest March.

 

March colder than all three (3 instances):

1890, 1932, 1960

 

A few things struck me as interesting- first, it's happened more times in January vs. February, despite February having a higher average temperature. Second, it wasn’t too unusual for March to be colder than January before 1960, then it suddenly stopped happening. Third, our recent December futility/torches are apparent here.

[RodneyS]

On 3/12/2017 at 11:09 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

March colder than all three (3 instances):

1890, 1932, 1960

The same holds true for DC.  I just ran a projection for where March 2017 will finish at DCA based on a composite of the NWS, Weather Channel, and AccuWeather forecasts.  The projected March 2017 average temperature works out to be 44.0, which would be 3.7 degrees colder than February 2017, but 1.9 degrees warmer than January 2017 and 2.2 degrees warmer than December 2016.

[RodneyS]

On 3/20/2016 at 6:47 PM, RodneyS said:

DCA astronomical (December 21-March 20) and composite (December 1-March 20) winters were even warmer, at 42.8 and 43.9 degrees, respectively.  Those averages were good enough for a 5th place tie and 3rd place, respectively, all-time in DC.  The comparable averages for 1997-98 were 42.5 and 42.4.  The warmest astronomical and composite DC winters each occurred during a weak La Nina in 2011-12, at 45.9 and 45.6, respectively. 

The 2016-17 DCA astronomical winter wound up in second place all-time in DC, with an average temperature of 44.3 degrees.  The composite winter averaged 43.7, finishing just behind last year and 4th all-time in DC.

[RodneyS]

On 3/14/2017 at 9:07 PM, RodneyS said:

The same holds true for DC.  I just ran a projection for where March 2017 will finish at DCA based on a composite of the NWS, Weather Channel, and AccuWeather forecasts.  The projected March 2017 average temperature works out to be 44.0, which would be 3.7 degrees colder than February 2017, but 1.9 degrees warmer than January 2017 and 2.2 degrees warmer than December 2016.

The mid-March forecasts for the last half of the month at DCA missed the mark on the low side, as the final DCA March 2017 average temperature was 47.2 degrees.  Half a degree cooler than February, but still above the 1981-2010 March normal of 46.8.  In fact, it tied 1988 as the 49th warmest of 147 Marchs in DC history.  Similarly, IAD averaged 44.2 in March 2017, which was 0.6 degrees below February, but exactly equal to the 1981-2010 March normal and tied with 2011 as the 25th warmest of 55 Marchs in IAD history.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

March at BWI finished at 43.9 degrees which is a +0.3 departure.

March did finish colder than February, but only by 0.3 degrees (43.9 vs 44.2). March did finish warmer than December and January though.

This March, for the time being, destroyed any chance of getting a top ten hottest year- we’re way, way down on the list now.

[RodneyS]

2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This March, for the time being, destroyed any chance of getting a top ten hottest year- we’re way, way down on the list now.

Are you sure? If you weight the first three months of 2017 equally,  the first quarter average temperature at DCA was 45.7 degrees, which is third all-time in DC behind only 1Q 2012 (47.3) and 1Q 1990 (46.3).

[PrinceFrederickWx]

11 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Are you sure? If you weight the first three months of 2017 equally,  the first quarter average temperature at DCA was 45.7 degrees, which is third all-time in DC behind only 1Q 2012 (47.3) and 1Q 1990 (46.3).

Yikes- I rechecked and it appears I made a mistake in the spreadsheet. Yeah, BWI is currently ranked 10th hottest. Thanks for the heads up.

[RodneyS]

19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yikes- I rechecked and it appears I made a mistake in the spreadsheet. Yeah, BWI is currently ranked 10th hottest. Thanks for the heads up.

You're welcome.  With all the hype last month about March being colder than February, the cherry blossoms freezing, and the only half-way decent snowstorm of the winter occurring then, I'm guessing 90% of the Mid-Atlantic's population thinks it was an abnormally cold month. :-)

[RodneyS]

Easter 2017 (April 16th)  did not establish an all-time high DC Easter maximum (95, set on April 18, 1976) nor an all-time high DC Easter minimum (66, set on April 6, 1947), but did tie the all-time high DC average Easter temperature with a maximum/minimum of 89/65 (average of 77.0), equal to the April 18, 1976 average (95/59).

[MN Transplant]

10 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Easter 2017 (April 16th)  did not establish an all-time high DC Easter maximum (95, set on April 18, 1976) nor an all-time high DC Easter minimum (66, set on April 6, 1947), but did tie the all-time high DC average Easter temperature with a maximum/minimum of 89/65 (average of 77.0), equal to the April 18, 1976 average (95/59).

Nice digging.  Thanks.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Something interesting I noticed: starting with 2009, every April at BWI has broken or tied at least one record high or high minimum.

This might be a top ten hottest April too.

Record high watch for this Saturday.

I wonder where the year will rank so far after this month is over (I promise I won't screw it up this time! lol)

[RodneyS]

4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Something interesting I noticed: starting with 2009, every April at BWI has broken or tied at least one record high or high minimum.

This might be a top ten hottest April too.

Record high watch for this Saturday.

I wonder where the year will rank so far after this month is over (I promise I won't screw it up this time! lol)

Using National Weather Service temperature forecasts for the remainder of April results in DCA finishing with an average April 2017 temperature of 63.7 degrees. That would break the April 1994 DC high average record by 1.7 degrees.  Also, weighting the first four months of the year equally, January-April 2017 would average 50.2 degrees, breaking the January-April 2012 DC high average record by 0.2 degrees.

[RodneyS]

On 4/16/2017 at 9:54 PM, RodneyS said:

Easter 2017 (April 16th)  did not establish an all-time high DC Easter maximum (95, set on April 18, 1976) nor an all-time high DC Easter minimum (66, set on April 6, 1947), but did tie the all-time high DC average Easter temperature with a maximum/minimum of 89/65 (average of 77.0), equal to the April 18, 1976 average (95/59).

April 29, 2017 one-upped Easter 2017 by breaking the all-time DC April minimum high temperature record of 69 set way back on April 19, 1896, with today's minimum of 70 at DCA.  Today's maximum of 91 there tied the April 29th DC record set in 1974, but fell well short of the all-time DC April maximum record of 95 set on April 27, 1915 and duplicated on April 23, 1960,  April 18, 1976, and April 17, 2002. However, today's average temperature of 80.5 also equaled the all-time DC April high average daily temperature record that was established on April 19,1896, which featured a maximum of 92 to go with the 69 minimum. 

[RodneyS]

20 hours ago, RodneyS said:

April 29, 2017 one-upped Easter 2017 by breaking the all-time DC April minimum high temperature record of 69 set way back on April 19, 1896, with today's minimum of 70 at DCA.  Today's maximum of 91 there tied the April 29th DC record set in 1974, but fell well short of the all-time DC April maximum record of 95 set on April 27, 1915 and duplicated on April 23, 1960,  April 18, 1975, and April 17, 2002. However, today's average temperature of 80.5 also equaled the all-time DC April high average daily temperature record that was established on April 19,1896, which featured a maximum of 92 to go with the 69 minimum. 

The new April DC high minimum of 70 set yesterday looks like it will be broken today, as the April 30, 2017 overnight low of 71 appears very likely to hold through midnight. 

[RodneyS]

On 4/25/2017 at 9:25 PM, RodneyS said:

Using National Weather Service temperature forecasts for the remainder of April results in DCA finishing with an average April 2017 temperature of 63.7 degrees. That would break the April 1994 DC high average record by 1.7 degrees.  Also, weighting the first four months of the year equally, January-April 2017 would average 50.2 degrees, breaking the January-April 2012 DC high average record by 0.2 degrees.

The NWS forecasts were pretty accurate, but the April 2017 DCA average wound up at 63.9 degrees, to break the DC record by 1.9 degrees.  The January-April 2017 average was the same as forecast, at 50.2 degrees, to break the DC record by 0.2 degrees. 

[RodneyS]

14 hours ago, RodneyS said:

The new April DC high minimum of 70 set yesterday looks like it will be broken today, as the April 30, 2017 overnight low of 71 appears very likely to hold through midnight. 

Didn't happen, as the Weather Channel hourly forecast for DCA was way off-base, with the temperature there falling to 66 by midnight.  So, April 29, 2017 remains the only April day in DC weather history to record a minimum of 70 or higher. 

[RodneyS]

14 hours ago, RodneyS said:

The NWS forecasts were pretty accurate, but the April 2017 DCA average wound up at 63.9 degrees, to break the DC record by 1.9 degrees.  The January-April 2017 average was the same as forecast, at 50.2 degrees, to break the DC record by 0.2 degrees. 

With the minimum touching 66 last night at DCA, the April 2017 average temperature there is corrected to 63.8, breaking the record by 1.8 degrees.  January-April 2017 average held at 50.2 degrees, to break the first four-months high temperature record by 0.2 degrees. 

[RodneyS]

On 4/29/2017 at 9:36 PM, RodneyS said:

 However, today's average temperature of 80.5 also equaled the all-time DC April high average daily temperature record that was established on April 19,1896, which featured a maximum of 92 to go with the 69 minimum. 

In a May 1, 2017 Capital Weather Gang article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/05/01/washington-matched-records-for-the-warmest-most-humid-april-weather-this-weekend/?utm_term=.2d92d9f0a430), Jason Samenow notes that an average daily April temperature of 80.5 was also recorded in DC on April 20, 1941, with a maximum of 94 and a minimum of 67. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

April finished 60.3 at BWI, which was 2nd hottest. The hottest was 1941 at 60.4, so we just missed it by a tenth of a degree!

4th hottest January-April, here's the top four:

1) 1921: 47.3

2) 2012: 47.2

3) 1949: 47.0

4) 2017: 46.9

 

[RodneyS]

On 5/1/2017 at 9:08 AM, RodneyS said:

With the minimum touching 66 last night at DCA, the April 2017 average temperature there is corrected to 63.8, breaking the record by 1.8 degrees.  January-April 2017 average held at 50.2 degrees, to break the first four-months high temperature record by 0.2 degrees. 

May 2017 had the distinction of being the first month in exactly one year to be: (a) below the 1981-2010 DCA temperature normal, finishing with an average of 65.5 vs. the May normal of 66.0; and (b) above the 1981-2010 DCA precipitation normal, finishing with 5.55 inches (assuming no more this evening) vs. the May normal of 3.99 inches.  January-May 2017 monthly average temperature is 53.3, placing it second all-time in DC behind January-May 2012, which averaged 54.3.

[RodneyS]

On 10/31/2012 at 9:56 PM, Ian said:

BWI record Oct daily rainfall from Sandy.

I believe that DCA's precipitation total yesterday (3.31 inches) was the 6th highest daily July amount in DC history (record is 4.69 inches on July 9, 1970), and is also the most daily precipitation at DCA since Sandy (3.85 inches on October 29, 2012, which by the way fell 0.13 inches short of the October DC record set on October 4, 1877).

[RodneyS]

July 2017 at DCA finished with an average temperature of 81.7 degrees -- 12th warmest July of all-time in DC, but cooler than four of the previous seven.  DCA also recorded 9.15 inches of precipitation in July -- 7th most ever in DC for that month, and the most July precipitation since the 9.44 inches in 1969.

[Bob Chill]

Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.

 

compared to last year i feel like this summer has been very tame.  definitely worse out west it seems.  i could be wrong, but i don't think we've hit 100 yet and not too many upper 90s days.

[mattie g]

12 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Nice stats Rodney! The precip in July is probably the only reason we didn't end up in the top 10 for heat. August is looking unimpressive so far in the heat dept. Would be nice to have a BN month.

I'd imagine that precip is the limiting factor for heat in most summer months: More rain/less heat v. less rain/more heat.

[MN Transplant]

Per LWX, this was the rainiest July on record at IAD.