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Our region's extreme run


MN Transplant
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On 1/1/2016 at 11:18 AM, Ian said:

Looks like this should go down as the third warmest year on record for DC*.

 

2012    61.5
1991    60.2
2015    60.1
1998    60
1990    60

 

 

*you know the story

2016 will be the new # 2 in DC, at 60.3 degrees (actually 60.4 if you compute the true 366-day average, rather than averaging the 12 monthly averages).  And IAD will also be #2 all-time, at 57.1 (vs. 57.9 in 2012).

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Record high of 70 tied today at BWI.

No contest at Dulles, as today's high of 70 easily eclipsed the previous record of 63 set in 1995.  DCA's 72 didn't break the 1890 record of 76, but was the warmest January 12th in DC since that year. 

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1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

No contest at Dulles, as today's high of 70 easily eclipsed the previous record of 63 set in 1995.  DCA's 72 didn't break the 1890 record of 76, but was the warmest January 12th in DC since that year. 

The high minimum records at both airports should also fall by day's end.  At Dulles, the current record is just 38, set in 2007.  Today's low there is currently 49, and is very likely to hold. In DC, the current record is 47, set in 1890.  Today's low at DCA is currently 51, and is also very likely to hold.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 1/31/2016 at 6:43 PM, RodneyS said:

And January wasn't cold.  It was cool.  However the 34.9 degree average temperature at DCA, while only 0.3 degrees below the January 1871-2016 DC average of 35.2 degrees, was 16.3 degrees below the December 2015 average DCA temperature of 51.2 degrees.  That decline represented the greatest one-month change from December in DC history.  The previous record-holder was January 1912, which declined 16.0 degrees from December 1911. (The largest increase was January 1990, which was up 15.7 degrees from December 1989.)

This January was a different story at DCA, rising to an average temperature of 42.1 degrees vs 41.8 in December 2016.  The January average was 12th warmest of all-time in DC, and was 6.1 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal.

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4 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA 73 vs the record of 64.  I think Ian on twitter noted the other day that 64 was tied for the lowest individual daily high temp on record at DCA.  Now Dec 17th stands alone.

Yes indeed.  It's interesting that the lowest DC daily January maximum is quite a bit higher than either December's or February's (now 65, on February 3, 1927), at a relatively balmy 68 degrees (on January 3rd, in both 2000 and 2004).  At Dulles, it's a different story, as January 10th (2002) is the lowest daily maximum temperature on record, at a mere 58 degrees.  Today's high of 72 at IAD easily broke the previous February 7th record of 65 degrees, but the lowest February daily maximum there remains 63 (in both 1990 and 2001).  In December, the lowest IAD daily maximum is also 63, set on December 19th (1967).

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6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA 73 vs the record of 64.  I think Ian on twitter noted the other day that 64 was tied for the lowest individual daily high temp on record at DCA.  Now Dec 17th stands alone.

Yeah this was a low hanging fruit record at BWI too- appears to be the lowest. Although a high of 72 would break or tie on many other days in February too so it's still an impressive record. 

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On 2/8/2017 at 4:24 PM, RodneyS said:

New records also at DCA (74) and IAD (71).

No record area highs today (both set in 2011 -- 77 at DCA and 74 at IAD), but IAD had an interesting distinction:  The 47-degree temperature spread between the morning low of 25 and the afternoon high of 72 was the greatest there since April 8, 1995, when the temperature range was 34 to 81.

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Legit shot at hottest February ever for BWI. As of yesterday the departure was +7.0 which would be tied for 4th with 1932. That will go way up after today and tomorrow. Question is how much Sunday/Monday will knock it down.

+8.3 is the magic number, which is where the hottest February (1976) finished.

We have five 70+ highs as of today; tomorrow will be an easy win so that ties it at six. Saturday is questionable since the forecast is a high of 68 but if we can overperform a bit we can break the record.

Only two degrees away from getting the daily record high today too.

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4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Hottest February ever just clinched today!

Most number of 70+ high days (7) this month too!

Here are the February 2017 average temperatures for DCA and IAD:  DCA -- 47.7 degrees vs previous DC record high of 46.9 in 1976.  IAD -- 44.8 vs. previous record high of 42.2 in 1990. IAD also broke its meteorological winter average high temperature record of 40.0 set in 2011-12, with a Dec-Feb average of 40.7.  Finally, DCA broke its previous meteorological winter average high temperature record of 43.4 set in 2011-12, with an average of 43.8, but did not break the all-time DC record of 44.7 set in 1931-32 nor equal the 2nd place DC record of 44.3 established in 1889-90. 

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On 2/28/2017 at 6:17 PM, RodneyS said:

Here are the February 2017 average temperatures for DCA and IAD:  DCA -- 47.7 degrees vs previous DC record high of 46.9 in 1976.  IAD -- 44.8 vs. previous record high of 42.2 in 1990. IAD also broke its meteorological winter average high temperature record of 40.0 set in 2011-12, with a Dec-Feb average of 40.7.  Finally, DCA broke its previous meteorological winter average high temperature record of 43.4 set in 2011-12, with an average of 43.8, but did not break the all-time DC record of 44.7 set in 1931-32 nor equal the 2nd place DC record of 44.3 established in 1889-90. 

By the way, DCA's February 2017 average temperature of 47.7 is third all-time warmest for meteorological winter monthly temperatures in DC, behind only December 2015 at 51.2 and January 1950 at 48.0.  At Dulles, the February 2017 average temperature of 44.8 is second all-time warmest for meteorological winter, behind only December 2015 at 48.7.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense.

I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.

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27 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'm starting to wonder whether this March will end up colder than not only February, but also January and December. Some of the guidance is predicting some scary cold for the next few weeks, and since the actual met winter months have been so mild, I think we have a shot at March being colder than any of them, not just relative to normal but also in an absolute sense.

I wonder how many times that has happened. Probably in 1960, but that sure isn't easy to achieve.

I'm not home right now but I'll look into it for BWI and get back to you. I'm curious myself now.

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Here you go:

 

March colder than February (7 instances + 1 tie):

1883 (tied), 1887, 1890, 1891, 1909, 1932, 1960, 1984

 

March colder than January (11 instances):

1876, 1880, 1890, 1906, 1916, 1932, 1933, 1937, 1947, 1950, 1960

 

March colder than previous December (19 instances):

1885, 1890, 1892, 1896, 1906, 1912, 1914, 1924, 1932, 1940, 1941, 1947, 1950, 1957, 1960, 1972, 2013, 2014, 2015

Surprisingly, 2016 didn’t make the list here- even though December 2015 was the hottest December ever, March 2016 was also 6th hottest March.

 

March colder than all three (3 instances):

1890, 1932, 1960

 

A few things struck me as interesting- first, it's happened more times in January vs. February, despite February having a higher average temperature. Second, it wasn’t too unusual for March to be colder than January before 1960, then it suddenly stopped happening. Third, our recent December futility/torches are apparent here.

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On 3/12/2017 at 11:09 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

March colder than all three (3 instances):

1890, 1932, 1960

The same holds true for DC.  I just ran a projection for where March 2017 will finish at DCA based on a composite of the NWS, Weather Channel, and AccuWeather forecasts.  The projected March 2017 average temperature works out to be 44.0, which would be 3.7 degrees colder than February 2017, but 1.9 degrees warmer than January 2017 and 2.2 degrees warmer than December 2016.

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On 3/20/2016 at 6:47 PM, RodneyS said:

DCA astronomical (December 21-March 20) and composite (December 1-March 20) winters were even warmer, at 42.8 and 43.9 degrees, respectively.  Those averages were good enough for a 5th place tie and 3rd place, respectively, all-time in DC.  The comparable averages for 1997-98 were 42.5 and 42.4.  The warmest astronomical and composite DC winters each occurred during a weak La Nina in 2011-12, at 45.9 and 45.6, respectively. 

The 2016-17 DCA astronomical winter wound up in second place all-time in DC, with an average temperature of 44.3 degrees.  The composite winter averaged 43.7, finishing just behind last year and 4th all-time in DC.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/14/2017 at 9:07 PM, RodneyS said:

The same holds true for DC.  I just ran a projection for where March 2017 will finish at DCA based on a composite of the NWS, Weather Channel, and AccuWeather forecasts.  The projected March 2017 average temperature works out to be 44.0, which would be 3.7 degrees colder than February 2017, but 1.9 degrees warmer than January 2017 and 2.2 degrees warmer than December 2016.

The mid-March forecasts for the last half of the month at DCA missed the mark on the low side, as the final DCA March 2017 average temperature was 47.2 degrees.  Half a degree cooler than February, but still above the 1981-2010 March normal of 46.8.  In fact, it tied 1988 as the 49th warmest of 147 Marchs in DC history.  Similarly, IAD averaged 44.2 in March 2017, which was 0.6 degrees below February, but exactly equal to the 1981-2010 March normal and tied with 2011 as the 25th warmest of 55 Marchs in IAD history.

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March at BWI finished at 43.9 degrees which is a +0.3 departure.

March did finish colder than February, but only by 0.3 degrees (43.9 vs 44.2). March did finish warmer than December and January though.

This March, for the time being, destroyed any chance of getting a top ten hottest year- we’re way, way down on the list now.

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

This March, for the time being, destroyed any chance of getting a top ten hottest year- we’re way, way down on the list now.

Are you sure? If you weight the first three months of 2017 equally,  the first quarter average temperature at DCA was 45.7 degrees, which is third all-time in DC behind only 1Q 2012 (47.3) and 1Q 1990 (46.3).

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11 hours ago, RodneyS said:

Are you sure? If you weight the first three months of 2017 equally,  the first quarter average temperature at DCA was 45.7 degrees, which is third all-time in DC behind only 1Q 2012 (47.3) and 1Q 1990 (46.3).

Yikes- I rechecked and it appears I made a mistake in the spreadsheet. Yeah, BWI is currently ranked 10th hottest. Thanks for the heads up.

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19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Yikes- I rechecked and it appears I made a mistake in the spreadsheet. Yeah, BWI is currently ranked 10th hottest. Thanks for the heads up.

You're welcome.  With all the hype last month about March being colder than February, the cherry blossoms freezing, and the only half-way decent snowstorm of the winter occurring then, I'm guessing 90% of the Mid-Atlantic's population thinks it was an abnormally cold month. :-)

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