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Our region's extreme run


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Some more stats for BWI- this was the 2nd hottest November-December period. The top ten are listed below (in degrees). We came close to beating 1931, and there's a huge gap between 2nd and 3rd. You'll see some familiar recent years in this list too:

 

1931: 50.2 

2015: 50.0 

1946: 47.4 

1994 & 1941: 47.3 

1948: 46.9

1881: 46.6

1889 & 2011: 46.5

2001: 46.4

 

 

This was also the 10th wettest December at BWI, with 5.85"

At DCA, it was no contest.  The November-December 2015 average temperature there was 52.5 degrees, which broke the 2001 record by 2.3 degrees.   In fact, starting in March 2015, I believe that DCA broke every composite DC monthly record ending in December 2015 -- ten records in all.  

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BWI already had a T in December, but if you're looking to track snow futility, the only January that ever had a 0 (not even a T) was 1937. Its still early, but we're at zero so far and no snow in sight.

 

Should probably mention that 1937 really delivered in February and March and was an above average winter though. :snowing:

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This is something else I've been thinking about but don't have enough info- how often do we go through an entire winter without at least one subfreezing high? Looking at some of BWI's hottest winters I can't find any that didn't have at least one for DJF except 31/32 (and even that winter had several in March). So I can't find any for DJFM at all. Although not having any subfreezing highs may not correlate to an overall torch winter, so I could be looking in the wrong places. I'd assume DCA has had several without.

 

Still early though- and BWI might get one next week?

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This is something else I've been thinking about but don't have enough info- how often do we go through an entire winter without at least one subfreezing high? Looking at some of BWI's hottest winters I can't find any that didn't have at least one for DJF except 31/32 (and even that winter had several in March). So I can't find any for DJFM at all. Although not having any subfreezing highs may not correlate to an overall torch winter, so I could be looking in the wrong places. I'd assume DCA has had several without.

 

Still early though- and BWI might get one next week?

If you define subfreezing as 31 degrees and below, such a failure last happened at DCA four winters ago. During the winter of 2011-12 (Weak La Nina), the low maximum was 32 on January 22, 2012.  The last winter at DCA in which the maximum exceeded 32 every day was the prior very strong El Nino in 1997-98, when the low maximum was 34 on March 11, 1998.    

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I figured not getting a subfreezing high in DJF (yes, I mean 31 and under) would be more common at DCA than BWI. Other than 31/32, the only other one I found was 97/98 (which was tied for 8th hottest winter overall). But there may be others, I can't check them all.

 

Some of BWI's hottest winters and the first subfreezing high they had (also included the super nino of 72/73 out of curiosity, even though its way down on the list at 25th hottest):

 

32/33 - 12/16 (23 degrees)

48/49 - 12/26 (25 degrees)

49/50 - 2/26 (31 degrees)

72/73 - 12/17 (30 degrees)

01/02 - 12/30 (30 degrees)

11/12 - 1/4 (31 degrees)

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Play around with this it has basically everything once you figure out how to pull it http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

 

Will be adding this to my bookmarks, thanks!

 

I use this page a lot- you guys probably already have this, but if you don't, its got a lot of good data:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html

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  • 2 weeks later...

December wasn't hot.  It was warm.

And January wasn't cold.  It was cool.  However the 34.9 degree average temperature at DCA, while only 0.3 degrees below the January 1871-2016 DC average of 35.2 degrees, was 16.3 degrees below the December 2015 average DCA temperature of 51.2 degrees.  That decline represented the greatest one-month change from December in DC history.  The previous record-holder was January 1912, which declined 16.0 degrees from December 1911. (The largest increase was January 1990, which was up 15.7 degrees from December 1989.)

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  • 3 weeks later...

At 2:52 PM today, there was a temperature difference of 21 degrees between DCA (65) and IAD (44).  Not a record, as on both January 21, 1984 and January 28, 1987, the daily DCA/IAD minimums differed by 24 degrees (8 and minus 16, and 7 and minus 17, respectively). However, both of those occurred with significant snow on the ground at IAD and a clear night, and so radiational cooling was the source of the extreme difference in morning lows. Does anyone know what the record is for the largest afternoon difference, both at the same time and for the entire afternoon?  (IAD is still forecast to reach about 60 later today.)

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At 2:52 PM today, there was a temperature difference of 21 degrees between DCA (65) and IAD (44).  Not a record, as on both January 21, 1984 and January 28, 1987, the daily DCA/IAD minimums differed by 24 degrees (8 and minus 16, and 7 and minus 17, respectively). However, both of those occurred with significant snow on the ground at IAD and a clear night, and so radiational cooling was the source of the extreme difference in morning lows. Does anyone know what the record is for the largest afternoon difference, both at the same time and for the entire afternoon?  (IAD is still forecast to reach about 60 later today.)

It looks as if the IAD temperature peaked at about 52 this afternoon (and is now higher), so the afternoon difference between DCA and IAD was only about 13 degrees.  To my surprise, I found that the greatest difference in the daily maximum temperature at the two airports is four degrees higher.  That occurred on December 9, 1975, when DCA recorded a high of 53 and IAD 36.  So, today did not come close to that, although there is still the question of the greatest difference at the same time.  By the way, I found a third case of a 24-degree difference in the daily minimums, which occurred on February 13, 1983, when DCA recorded 16 degrees and IAD minus 8.

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Pretty interesting 2015-16 meteorological winter at DCA, as despite the blizzard and relative cold of January, the average temperature was 42.0 degrees -- good enough for an 8th place tie for warmest in DC history.  The last Super El Nino, in 1997-98, was the 6th warmest DC winter at 42.4 degrees.  However, that winter lacked the variability of this one, with a standard deviation from the average daily winter temperature of only 6.1 degrees, compared to 10.7 degrees this season.  In fact, this winter at DCA had the highest standard deviation since the winter of 1989-90, which came in at 11.1 degrees.    

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  • 2 weeks later...

High 82, low 40... that's a 42 degree spread. I wonder what the largest difference is ever recorded in one day? I feel like that's gotta be close?

Not sure about Baltimore, but in DC the record one-day spread is 50 degrees -- March 22 1907, when the temperature range was 90/40.

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Not sure about Baltimore, but in DC the record one-day spread is 50 degrees -- March 22 1907, when the temperature range was 90/40.

I looked to 2000, has happened a few times. Most recently in 2011, April 4.. 43/86.

 

Dulles actually has 5 above 50 but not that shocking for its location I suppose.

4/11/1977    87    33    54
4/3/1981     86    34    52
1/28/1987    35    -17   52
3/23/1994    83    32    51
4/18/1985    84    34    50
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I looked to 2000, has happened a few times. Most recently in 2011, April 4.. 43/86.

 

Dulles actually has 5 above 50 but not that shocking for its location I suppose.

4/11/1977    87    33    54
4/3/1981     86    34    52
1/28/1987    35    -17   52
3/23/1994    83    32    51
4/18/1985    84    34    50

That -17 35 is the coolest one on that list IMO

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I looked to 2000, has happened a few times. Most recently in 2011, April 4.. 43/86.

 

Dulles actually has 5 above 50 but not that shocking for its location I suppose.

4/11/1977    87    33    54
4/3/1981     86    34    52
1/28/1987    35    -17   52
3/23/1994    83    32    51
4/18/1985    84    34    50

That -17 35 is the coolest one on that list IMO

 

The temperature range at DCA that day was 7 to 32.  So, the maximum was 3-degrees higher at IAD, but the minimum was 24-degrees lower.  As previously mentioned on this thread, that is one of three times that there has been a 24-degree difference between the minimums at the two airports.  

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