PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 So looking at everything I think the following records are in play at BWI (hard to keep all these straight lol): Daily record high: Dec. 23, 24, 25 Daily record high minimum: Dec. 24, 25 Monthly record high: Dec. 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 So looking at everything I think the following records are in play at BWI (hard to keep all these straight lol): Daily record high: Dec. 23, 24, 25 Daily record high minimum: Dec. 24, 25 Monthly record high: Dec. 24 I think the monthly record high min is probably in play too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 BWI just got more rain in one hourly obs (1.26") than the daily record (1.04")- good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 BWI just got more rain in one hourly obs (1.26") than the daily record (1.04")- good lord! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 24, 2015 Author Share Posted December 24, 2015 64 at DCA currently. Looking good to break the all time December min record tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Saw on Twitter that the IAD sounding had 1.8" of precipitable water, which sets the all-time Dec-Apr record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Which is more likely, another December like this one or another February like last one? My hunch is that February 2015's weather was less abnormal but haven't run the statistics. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Which is more likely, another December like this one or another February like last one? My hunch is that February 2015's weather was less abnormal but haven't run the statistics. Thoughts?Just my opinion, but if we wind up with a +11 or +12 departure or something like that, I'd say this month is the more anomalous one and least likely to happen again. Shameless plug- I have a lot of the February 2015 BWI stats in the link in my signature btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Oh and BWI is gonna miss the record high by one degree... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 It doesn't get more extreme than tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 64 at DCA currently. Looking good to break the all time December min record tomorrow. Even with the temperature falling to 60 yesterday, DCA still established an-all time December record high minimum for DC, but fell short of the all-time meteorological winter high minimum of 61 established on February 16, 1891. IAD, on the other hand, with a December 24, 2015 minimum of 63 broke the all-time record meteorological winter high minimum of 62 established there on January 8, 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I love how BWI fell to 61 right before midnight just to screw us out of the monthly high minimum by one degree. Then we missed the record high by one degree today too lol We got daily record high and high minimum for yesterday, and will get high minimum for today too. Next up is breaking the record high on Sunday and then breaking the record for number of 70+ highs in December. I think we've pretty much clinched hottest December ever now. Merry Christmas to all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Here's what I got so far on my webpage: 3 record highs broken and 2 tied in December 2015 2 record high minimums broken in December 2015 Hottest December ever Tied for 1st, most number of 70+ degree days (5) in December (2015) I'll post some analysis in January once we get the final departure number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 December wasn't hot. It was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 December wasn't hot. It was warm. I use "hot" just to denote records- I like to have my page consistent. It gets sloppy when I write "hottest July" but "warmest December". Honestly some of the dewpoints and highest minimums felt quite uncomfortable to me- though technically not "hot" I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Late Christmas Eve night felt like June with the 65F dew point and crickets chirping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Some people find 70s hot in any season Unless they are natives of the poles, those are mentally ill people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Some people find 70s hot in any season Its all about the dewpoint... 73 with sunny blue skies and a dewpoint of 40 is awesome. 73 with a dewpoint of 66 at 3am after a rainfall, with bugs and worms everywhere? -not so much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is currently ranked as the 12th hottest March... we might have a shot at top 10 but I haven't run the numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This month yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 This month yo Nice. Wonder where we are on standard deviation. Dec is a monthly with a higher variation, but it is possible that this is still the most anomalous + month in DC history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah may be worth some more examination. I did this a while back too.. obv doesn't include this Dec. Here's NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Nice. Wonder where we are on standard deviation. Dec is a monthly with a higher variation, but it is possible that this is still the most anomalous + month in DC history. I think the best way to look at this may be to compute the historical (1871-2015) DC average temperature for each month, and then see how much each contending month deviates from that average. By that measure, December 2015 will be the champion, if 51.2 holds as the final average, as that would be 13.0 degrees above the historical December average of 38.2. The current champion is January 1950, with an average of 48.0 vs the historical January average of 35.2, for an anomaly of +12.8 degrees. On the minus side, the champion is February 1934, with an average of 24.6 vs the historical February average of 36.9, for an anomaly of -12.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Nice. Wonder where we are on standard deviation. Dec is a monthly with a higher variation, but it is possible that this is still the most anomalous + month in DC history. The most anomalous month at BWI is January 1932 at +14.5. We're not getting that high this month, but I assume Dec. 2015 will be in the top ten of positive departures of any month though. Edit: you all ever look at some of the departures in 1931-32? Crazy stuff. I think Sept. 1931 - Feb. 1932 may be the most anomalous heat in modern history. We'll never beat 31/32 for hottest winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The most anomalous month at BWI is January 1932 at +14.5. We're not getting that high this month, but I assume Dec. 2015 will be in the top ten of positive departures of any month though. Edit: you all ever look at some of the departures in 1931-32? Crazy stuff. I think Sept. 1931 - Feb. 1932 may be the most anomalous heat in modern history. We'll never beat 31/32 for hottest winter lol The winter of 1931-32 is still the record-holder in DC, but I would not bet against this winter surpassing it. December 1931 came in at 44.2 degrees in DC vs an estimated 51.2 this year at DCA. January 1932 averaged 46.8 and February 1932 averaged 42.9 in DC, and so DCA will have to average about 41.4 in January-February 2016 to surpass the 1931-32 winter average temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The winter of 1931-32 is still the record-holder in DC, but I would not bet against this winter surpassing it. December 1931 came in at 44.2 degrees in DC vs an estimated 51.2 this year at DCA. January 1932 averaged 46.8 and February 1932 averaged 42.9 in DC, and so DCA will have to average about 41.4 in January-February 2016 to surpass the 1931-32 winter average temperature. I don't know about DCA but BWI, despite being 3 degrees ahead, would still have to get somewhere around a +11.5 dep. (3rd hottest) in January just to keep pace. And then Feb. '32 was also 4th hottest (+7 dep.). I guess anything's possible but it sounds like long range isn't showing warmth anywhere near December levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Charlottesville has been quite toasty this December. I mean, McCormick Observatory, where mostly reliable records have been kept since the mid 1890s, is finishing up the warmest Meteorological Winter month (DJF) on record. CHO, where records have been officially recorded since 1998, is finishing up an impressive month. This December bests the old warmest December by at least 6°! I know the data isn't old enough to have a "climo" yet, but that's still mighty impressive. In fact, we had 2 five day stretches where we broke record highs at CHO: I mean, that's impressive in any month! Then again, records only go back to 1998, but still. Impressive nonetheless. When you combine the records of McCormick & CHO, we still beat 3 record highs this month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I don't know about DCA but BWI, despite being 3 degrees ahead, would still have to get somewhere around a +11.5 dep. (3rd hottest) in January just to keep pace. And then Feb. '32 was also 4th hottest (+7 dep.). I guess anything's possible but it sounds like long range isn't showing warmth anywhere near December levels. BWI definitely has a higher hurdle than DCA to break the all-time meteorological winter temperature average in 2015-16, and it won't be easy even at DCA. One thing I just noticed about both Baltimore and DC in 1931-32 is that March was colder than December-February. In Baltimore, March 1932 averaged only 40.3 degrees vs a low meteorological winter monthly temperature average of 42.8 in February, and in DC the comparable numbers were 40.0 in March and 42.9 in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 BWI definitely has a higher hurdle than DCA to break the all-time meteorological winter temperature average in 2015-16, and it won't be easy even at DCA. One thing I just noticed about both Baltimore and DC in 1931-32 is that March was colder than December-February. In Baltimore, March 1932 averaged only 40.3 degrees vs a low meteorological winter monthly temperature average of 42.8 in February, and in DC the comparable numbers were 40.0 in March and 42.9 in February. Yeah, it looked like the pattern finally flipped in March- below average temps and 2.7" of snow. Had it not been for March it would've been a near-shutout. I remember in another thread awhile back (I think it was in WestminsterDeathband's outlook thread) that '31/'32 still had the hottest DJFM record despite the cold March. '11/'12 was the opposite and took 2nd place mostly because of the extreme March. Getting the hottest DJFM might be more doable if we'd somehow wind up torching the whole winter but I'd have to look at it closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 No trace of snow yet (through end of December) in DC. Only has happened in 01-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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