RodneyS Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months. According to my records, the biggest gap is 1.8 degrees for both DC monthly all-time maximum and minimum average temperatures. October 2007 broke the maximum record with a 67.0 average temperature vs. 65.2 in October 1984. August 1927 broke the minimum record with a 70.0 average temperature vs. 71.8 in August 1903. By the way, weather.com currently shows forecasts that would bring the DCA December 2015 average to 50.4 degrees -- erasing the all-time high winter month average temperature of 48.0 set in January 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now. Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now. Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though. There is input from forecasters. Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 There is input from forecasters. Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013 Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. Looks like it... low was just before midnight http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Looks like it... low was just before midnight http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1 New GFS MEX has 61/76 at DCA Thurs heh. 30+ across the board for the area basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Yikes BWI got down to 21!? We really need that Christmas Eve torch now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Jebus look at these MOS numbers for Thurs. 38 degrees above normal at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Is WDOR a lock at this point (for DCA at least)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Is WDOR a lock at this point (for DCA at least)? WDOR??? If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months. I looked up BWI and found the biggest gap between #1 and #2 hottest of any month is 1.7 degrees between Nov. 1931 (54.7 degrees) and Nov. 1948 (53 degrees). Here's the gap in degrees between #1 and #2 in all 12 months: Jan 0.5 Feb 0.2 Mar 1.1 Apr 0.8 May 0.3 Jun 0.9 Jul 0.2 Aug 0.3 Sep 1.0 Oct 0.3 Nov 1.7 Dec 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 WDOR??? If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. Yeah I think it's pretty much a lock though I haven't run 'cold' numbers to see what we'd need to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 My new goal is to tie or beat the monthly record high (77 degrees) on Christmas Eve. LWX forecast is up to 73 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 The highest minimum for any day in Dec at DCA is 59° on 12/5/1973. That record is in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The highest minimum for any day in Dec at DCA is 59° on 12/5/1973. That record is in big trouble. Was about to say NWS forecast is 63 now Christmas Eve morning. GFS/Euro suggest it's above that thru midnight. Even possible we get it two days in a row if Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Was about to say NWS forecast is 63 now Christmas Eve morning. GFS suggests it's above that thru midnight. Doesn't go out past 7pm, but this is a straight up obliteration from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Also on track to finish in top 10 warmest years at DC.. tho not sure how we handle the sensor question on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Also on track to finish in top 10 warmest years at DC.. tho not sure how we handle the sensor question on that one. Probably about the same way we handle the fact that some of the old observations were taken multiple stories up in a building in a completely different part of town. Ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today's 12z plug in for DC: Euro: 51.9 GFS: 51.0 +11 to +12 month? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today's 12z plug in for DC: Euro: 51.9 GFS: 51.0 +11 to +12 month? lol. I think I have Jan 1950 as the most anomalously positive month on record at DCA. +12.0 from the current norms. This could be a solid #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What's the most anomalous single day departure on record for the airports? We're looking at a +30 or so for xmas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I think I have Jan 1950 as the most anomalously positive month on record at DCA. +12.0 from the current norms. This could be a solid #2.Yeah that looks right.. 11.9 per ACIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What's the most anomalous single day departure on record for the airports? We're looking at a +30 or so for xmas eve?I pulled a few years for DCA but none were that high. May look again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What's the most anomalous single day departure on record for the airports? We're looking at a +30 or so for xmas eve? For BWI, using the 1981-2010 normals, I think 1/26/1950 might hold the record for biggest positive departure- I calculated a +37 departure for that day. 12/22/2013 was a +32 departure and the next best one I know of. For negative departure, I got -37 for 2/10/1899 and -33 for 1/19/1994. There may be others but that's the best I'm aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 Super quick look at the records finds 75/60 on Jan 13, 1932 (+32 vs current norms, would be higher against the old numbers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Something else I was wondering but don't have enough data- what's the record for most number of 70+ degree days in December (and also any winter month) for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Something else I was wondering but don't have enough data- what's the record for most number of 70+ degree days in December (and also any winter month) for BWI?December DCA 5 in 1982 IAD 5 in 1998 and 1982 BWI 5 in 1998 Winter DCA 7 in 1976 IAD 6 in 1976 BWI 6 in Feb 1976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 December DCA 5 in 1982 IAD 5 in 1998 and 1982 BWI 5 in 1998 Winter DCA 7 in 1976 IAD 6 in 1976 BWI 6 in Feb 1976 Wow I had no idea 1998 had that many- thanks for looking this up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Wow I had no idea 1998 had that many- thanks for looking this up!btw those should all be feb 1976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Super quick look at the records finds 75/60 on Jan 13, 1932 (+32 vs current norms, would be higher against the old numbers). I think you are correct for the average temperature in DC. Looking only at the maximum, I believe that January 26, 1950 has it, with a high of 79 -- 35.2 degrees above the current normal high of 43.8 for January 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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