PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Another record high for BWI. Dulles just shy. 70 at both spots for 1p. Yep, another record high for BWI. High minimum is off the table though. This is exciting to track- I wonder if we have a real chance at a top 5 hottest December at BWI. Headed back outside now to enjoy the beautiful weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 All tied or broken through 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 All tied or broken through 3PM. I wonder if we can get today too? LWX has 69 & record is 71- just need a little nudge! We missed high minimum by one degree today. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 We did it again! High of 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 IAD and BWI records today, no dice for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 BWI almost backed into a 4th straight record high at midnight. Lol this is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Actually I'm wondering if BWI can get the high minimum today too (46). Tonight into the morning should be no problem but the low for Tues night/ Wed morning is forecast to be 40- not sure if we can hold it through midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Actually I'm wondering if BWI can get the high minimum today too (46). Tonight into the morning should be no problem but the low for Tues night/ Wed morning is forecast to be 40- not sure if we can hold it through midnight. Its possible... MAV guidance has been doing well for highs but bad for lows, reverse is true for MET. MAV says it is a record, MET says no. Depends on how fast it radiates tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees. im going to pretend we were -1 below normal but we got no snow. Ill feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees. I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees. That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Ugh down to 46 already, high minimum is about to get taken out. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees. That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950.Ha nice. I actually rounded down a bit to use whole numbers. I mean who knows anyway but we've got a very good shot I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees. That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950. Weather.com now has forecasts through December 30th, and they're even warmer: Average DC temperature Dec 1-30, 2015 = 51.3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 BWI is now at +9.1 which is #1... hopefully this weekend's seasonal weather doesn't ruin it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Christmas Eve (along with Dec. 27) actually has the lowest record high for any day in December (65 degrees). I think we'll break the Christmas Eve one this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Per 12z GFS 12/19 plug in DC finishes 49.6 or 4 degrees above prior Dec record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Per 12z GFS 12/19 plug in DC finishes 49.6 or 4 degrees above prior Dec record. Nutty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2015 Author Share Posted December 19, 2015 Per 12z GFS 12/19 plug in DC finishes 49.6 or 4 degrees above prior Dec record. That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months. According to my records, the biggest gap is 1.8 degrees for both DC monthly all-time maximum and minimum average temperatures. October 2007 broke the maximum record with a 67.0 average temperature vs. 65.2 in October 1984. August 1927 broke the minimum record with a 70.0 average temperature vs. 71.8 in August 1903. By the way, weather.com currently shows forecasts that would bring the DCA December 2015 average to 50.4 degrees -- erasing the all-time high winter month average temperature of 48.0 set in January 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now. Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now. Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though. There is input from forecasters. Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 There is input from forecasters. Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013 Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. Looks like it... low was just before midnight http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Looks like it... low was just before midnight http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1 New GFS MEX has 61/76 at DCA Thurs heh. 30+ across the board for the area basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Yikes BWI got down to 21!? We really need that Christmas Eve torch now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Jebus look at these MOS numbers for Thurs. 38 degrees above normal at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Is WDOR a lock at this point (for DCA at least)? WDOR??? If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months. I looked up BWI and found the biggest gap between #1 and #2 hottest of any month is 1.7 degrees between Nov. 1931 (54.7 degrees) and Nov. 1948 (53 degrees). Here's the gap in degrees between #1 and #2 in all 12 months: Jan 0.5 Feb 0.2 Mar 1.1 Apr 0.8 May 0.3 Jun 0.9 Jul 0.2 Aug 0.3 Sep 1.0 Oct 0.3 Nov 1.7 Dec 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 WDOR??? If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. Yeah I think it's pretty much a lock though I haven't run 'cold' numbers to see what we'd need to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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