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Our region's extreme run


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Another record high for BWI. Dulles just shy. 70 at both spots for 1p.

 

Yep, another record high for BWI. High minimum is off the table though.  :thumbsdown:

 

This is exciting to track- I wonder if we have a real chance at a top 5 hottest December at BWI.

 

Headed back outside now to enjoy the beautiful weather  :sizzle:

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Actually I'm wondering if BWI can get the high minimum today too (46). Tonight into the morning should be no problem but the low for Tues night/ Wed morning is forecast to be 40- not sure if we can hold it through midnight.

Its possible... MAV guidance has been doing well for highs but bad for lows, reverse is true for MET.  MAV says it is a record, MET says no.  Depends on how fast it radiates tonight.

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For fun I plugged in GFS numbers + climo on the 31st ... ~48 for DC. Would beat Dec record by about 2.4 degrees. 

I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees.  That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950.  

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I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees. That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950.

Ha nice. I actually rounded down a bit to use whole numbers. I mean who knows anyway but we've got a very good shot I think.
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I just did the same thing with AccuWeather's DC projections and got 50.9 degrees.  That would not only shatter the December record of 45.6 degrees set in 1889 and tied in 1984, but also the all-time winter monthly record of 48.0 degrees set in January 1950.  

Weather.com now has forecasts through December 30th, and they're even warmer:  Average DC temperature Dec 1-30, 2015 = 51.3 degrees.

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That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months.

According to my records, the biggest gap is 1.8 degrees for both DC monthly all-time maximum and minimum average temperatures. October 2007 broke the maximum record with a 67.0 average temperature vs. 65.2 in October 1984.  August 1927 broke the minimum record with a 70.0 average temperature vs. 71.8 in August 1903.  By the way, weather.com currently shows forecasts that would bring the DCA December 2015 average to 50.4 degrees -- erasing the all-time high winter month average temperature of 48.0 set in January 1950.

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I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now.  Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though.

 

ycoweS9.png

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I think these are all just gridded so I doubt someone necessarily was like hey let's forecast a December record for min temps but it's there for Thurs now.  Guess it could come down to midnight that night too though.

 

ycoweS9.png

There is input from forecasters.  Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013

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There is input from forecasters.  Also of note, that would not be a BWI record, which is an astonishing 62 from 12/22/2013

Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. :P

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Well I know there's input meant more like I figured no one was specifically thinking let's forecast a Dec record... but maybe. That's kind of ballsy if so from this range esp given the station didn't perform too admirably last go. But models do have a fairly high dew point environment most of the day. IAD also has a 62 record from that day... DCA must have gotten river winded. :P

Looks like it... low was just before midnight

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2013/12/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1

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Is WDOR a lock at this point (for DCA at least)?

WDOR???  If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. 

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That would qualify as an obliteration. I wonder what the biggest gap between 1 and 2 is for any of the months.

 

I looked up BWI and found the biggest gap between #1 and #2 hottest of any month is 1.7 degrees between Nov. 1931 (54.7 degrees) and Nov. 1948 (53 degrees).

 

Here's the gap in degrees between #1 and #2 in all 12 months:

Jan 0.5
Feb 0.2
Mar 1.1
Apr 0.8
May 0.3
Jun 0.9
Jul 0.2
Aug 0.3
Sep 1.0
Oct 0.3
Nov 1.7
Dec 0.3
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WDOR???  If you're asking whether DCA will bring the record for the warmest December in DC history, I would say it's about 95% certain, and about 75% that it will break the record for the warmest winter month in DC history. 

Yeah I think it's pretty much a lock though I haven't run 'cold' numbers to see what we'd need to miss it.

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