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Our region's extreme run


MN Transplant
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  On 3/3/2015 at 12:48 AM, WxUSAF said:

10 below normal months at BWI in the period of November 13-February 15. 

 

February 15, January 15, November 14, August 14, July 14, April 14, March 14, February 14, January 14, November 13

 

That's a pretty impressive run given climate and UHI both progressively working against below normal temps.  Maybe some of the stat-minded folks can tell us how exceptional it is?

 

If you're looking for a better stretch of below normal months at BWI (using the 1981-2010 normals), the most recent one I could find was the period between Jan. 2003 - Feb. 2004, which had 10 out of 14 months below normal. An even more impressive stretch would be the period between Oct. 2002 - Feb. 2004, which had 13 of 17 months below normal.

 

Also, the period between Jan. 2009 - Feb. 2010 had 9 of 14 months below normal.

 

By the way 2003, as a calendar year, actually finished colder than 2014- 2003 finished 13th coldest, whereas 2014 finished tied for 14th coldest.

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Dulles has now seen two of its top three March snowstorms the past two years. 11.1" 16th-17th in 2014 and 9.5" Mar 5 this year (second greatest March daily total there). 

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Dulles up to 88.8" now for last two winters. Most for back-to-back winters there. Of course 09-10 and 10-11 are 2nd because 09-10 was almost as big on its own. ;)

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  On 3/6/2015 at 4:39 PM, Ian said:

Dulles up to 88.8" now for last two winters. Most for back-to-back winters there. Of course 09-10 and 10-11 are 2nd because 09-10 was almost as big on its own. ;)

I should probably stop complaining about winter
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  On 3/6/2015 at 4:40 PM, Ji said:

I should probably stop complaining about winter

That was your stat heads up initially.. just verified myself. 

 

Due for some fail now. 

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  On 3/4/2015 at 7:43 PM, Noreastericane said:

I didn't realize BWI had a low-hanging-fruit daily snow record for 3/5- only 4.0 inches (days before it and after it are much higher). We'll probably break that if everything goes as planned.

 

Also, record low watch for 3/5 and 3/6.

 

All these records were indeed broken.

 

Edit: Actually it was 3/6 and 3/7

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  On 3/1/2015 at 12:17 AM, RodneyS said:

Regarding the last half of February 2015, it was a case of "missed it by that much" at DCA.  It averaged an even 25.0 degrees from the 15th to the 28th, which was just a tenth of a degree warmer than February 15-28, 1934, and 1934 also holds the record for the coldest February as a whole, at 24.6 degrees.   However, the last half of February 2015 was 7.3 degrees colder than the last half of February 1979 at DCA, and IAD's February 2015 last half average of 19.5 degrees was 7.5 degrees colder than the last half of February 1979 there. 

While DCA narrowly missed breaking the last half of February average low temperature record in DC, it has just narrowly broken the DC record for the lowest average temperature for the three weeks ending March 7th.  February 15-March 7, 2015 averaged 28.1 degrees at DCA, breaking the record of 28.2 degrees set 101 years ago, February 15-March 7, 1914.  Further, IAD averaged only 22.6 degrees during the last three weeks, shattering the previous record low average of 28.7 degrees for those three weeks set February 15-March 7, 1978. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
  On 3/6/2015 at 4:39 PM, Ian said:

Dulles up to 88.8" now for last two winters. Most for back-to-back winters there. Of course 09-10 and 10-11 are 2nd because 09-10 was almost as big on its own. ;)

And adding in the snow from last week, the two-season average for IAD is 44.9", which is crazy good.

At the very least, we're done with "feast or famine" assumption of how winters work around here, which didn't really apply to much of the region anyway during the last 10 years. DCA's 18.3" total is obviously neither a feast nor a famine. 

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The Jan.-Mar. period last year tied for 6th coldest at BWI- will be interesting to see where Jan.-Mar. this year ranks. I haven't done the math but I'm almost certain it'll beat last year.

 

Also- record low watch for Sunday, March 29? The record is 18 (set in 1923), current forecast is 23, so its a long shot, but the forecast keeps trending colder.

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  On 3/27/2015 at 1:30 PM, Noreastericane said:

The Jan.-Mar. period last year tied for 6th coldest at BWI- will be interesting to see where Jan.-Mar. this year ranks. I haven't done the math but I'm almost certain it'll beat last year.

Also- record low watch for Sunday, March 29? The record is 18 (set in 1923), current forecast is 23, so its a long shot, but the forecast keeps trending colder.

If the month ended today, BWI would be -5.4 for the period. JFM last year was -4.5. Looks like a lock that last year gets beat by a pretty hefty margin. I just realized that BWI went -10.5 in Feb. Double digit neg monthly departures are very rare nowadays.

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  On 3/27/2015 at 3:51 PM, Bob Chill said:

If the month ended today, BWI would be -5.4 for the period. JFM last year was -4.5. Looks like a lock that last year gets beat by a pretty hefty margin. I just realized that BWI went -10.5 in Feb. Double digit neg monthly departures are very rare nowadays.

Not so dramatic at DCA, but this year's first quarter average of 37.1 degrees was the lowest since 36.9 in 1994.  IAD's first quarter average of 31.6 degrees was the lowest since 31.5 in 1978.

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BWI just crushed the record for coldest Jan-Mar period ever. Below are the top five:

 

2015: 31.9
1904: 32.3
1912: 32.5
1895: 32.6
1885: 32.6

 

I'm tempted to start saying "top 10 coldest year on record watch" again since we're way out in front, but I said that last year and had the rug pulled out from under me in December. Also there seems to be more chatter now about a flip to warm for the rest of spring and summer...

 

Rodney (or anyone) where did IAD rank? I had assumed it would be somewhere in the top five coldest?

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  On 4/1/2015 at 12:35 PM, Noreastericane said:

BWI just crushed the record for coldest Jan-Mar period ever. Below are the top five:

 

2015: 31.9

1904: 32.3

1912: 32.5

1895: 32.6

1885: 32.6

 

I'm tempted to start saying "top 10 coldest year on record watch" again since we're way out in front, but I said that last year and had the rug pulled out from under me in December. Also there seems to be more chatter now about a flip to warm for the rest of spring and summer...

 

Rodney (or anyone) where did IAD rank? I had assumed it would be somewhere in the top five coldest?

 

Looks like 3rd at IAD

 

1970:  31.5

1978:  31.5

2015:  31.8

2014:  32.3

1969:  33.4

 

Coldest Feb/Mar combo on record though.

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  On 4/1/2015 at 12:35 PM, Noreastericane said:

BWI just crushed the record for coldest Jan-Mar period ever. Below are the top five:

 

2015: 31.9

1904: 32.3

1912: 32.5

1895: 32.6

1885: 32.6

 

I'm tempted to start saying "top 10 coldest year on record watch" again since we're way out in front, but I said that last year and had the rug pulled out from under me in December. Also there seems to be more chatter now about a flip to warm for the rest of spring and summer...

 

Rodney (or anyone) where did IAD rank? I had assumed it would be somewhere in the top five coldest?

 

  On 4/1/2015 at 2:32 PM, MN Transplant said:

Looks like 3rd at IAD

 

1970:  31.5

1978:  31.5

2015:  31.8

2014:  32.3

1969:  33.4

 

Coldest Feb/Mar combo on record though.

I agree with your figures (I previously misstated this year's 1Q at IAD as 31.6 degrees).  Bear in mind, though that these figures are unweighted averages of January, February, and March average monthly temperatures, which gives too much weight to February, as it has only 28 days (29 in leap years), compared to 31 days each in January and March.  Weighting each of the first 90 days of each year equally results in 1Q 1970 being colder than 1Q 1978 at IAD (31.4 vs. 31.7). 2015 would still be third coldest, but at 32.0 degrees, rather than 31.8.  Perhaps some day weighted averages will be used to calculate quarterly and seasonal averages.

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  On 4/1/2015 at 4:05 PM, RodneyS said:

I agree with your figures (I previously misstated this year's 1Q at IAD as 31.6 degrees).  Bear in mind, though that these figures are unweighted averages of January, February, and March average monthly temperatures, which gives too much weight to February, as it has only 28 days (29 in leap years), compared to 31 days each in January and March.  Weighting each of the first 90 days of each year equally results in 1Q 1970 being colder than 1Q 1978 at IAD (31.4 vs. 31.7). 2015 would still be third coldest, but at 32.0 degrees, rather than 31.8.  Perhaps some day weighted averages will be used to calculate quarterly and seasonal averages.

 

That's a good point and would skew the results; however, it doesn't look like LWX uses weighted averages for February or the 30-day months. I checked through their data to be sure. So my numbers are using their same methodology (whether its accurate or not).

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  On 4/1/2015 at 4:12 PM, Noreastericane said:

That's a good point and would skew the results; however, it doesn't look like LWX uses weighted averages for February or the 30-day months. I checked through their data to be sure. So my numbers are using their same methodology (whether its accurate or not).

I'm not sure that any meteorological organization uses weighted averages.  Presumably, that is because in the old days -- prior to the widespread use of calculators -- it was a pain to compute anything but unweighted averages by hand, and the methodology was never updated. In general, this isn't a big deal, but when you have an abnormally cold or warm February, unweighted averages can result in slightly erroneous figures for both the first quarter and the meteorological winter. 

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  On 4/1/2015 at 4:05 PM, RodneyS said:

I agree with your figures (I previously misstated this year's 1Q at IAD as 31.6 degrees).  Bear in mind, though that these figures are unweighted averages of January, February, and March average monthly temperatures, which gives too much weight to February, as it has only 28 days (29 in leap years), compared to 31 days each in January and March.  Weighting each of the first 90 days of each year equally results in 1Q 1970 being colder than 1Q 1978 at IAD (31.4 vs. 31.7). 2015 would still be third coldest, but at 32.0 degrees, rather than 31.8.  Perhaps some day weighted averages will be used to calculate quarterly and seasonal averages.

 

Agree, I think we can give up a little simplicity for the sake of better accuracy. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  On 4/15/2015 at 9:17 PM, Noreastericane said:

A somewhat interesting thing I noticed- BWI has not had one 80+ high this month so far. There doesn't appear to be any chance over the next seven days either (unless maybe Saturday busts warm). The last time BWI had an April without an 80+ high was in 1997.

 

Yep. High of 80 today, so nevermind.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
It's probably time to abandon the idea of top 10 coldest calendar year for BWI and focus on top 10 hottest May, so...

 

68.4 is the magic number that gives BWI a tie for top 10. Right now they are at 68.6. The next few days will knock that average down, but if we blowtorcher next week as currently forecast it will be back in play again.

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  On 5/20/2015 at 4:02 PM, Noreastericane said:

 

It's probably time to abandon the idea of top 10 coldest calendar year for BWI and focus on top 10 hottest May, so...
 
68.4 is the magic number that gives BWI a tie for top 10. Right now they are at 68.6. The next few days will knock that average down, but if we blowtorcher next week as currently forecast it will be back in play again.

 

 

IF???  Now, that's funny.

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