Our region's extreme run

[RodneyS]

22 hours ago, RodneyS said:

The 60+ degree weather streak at DCA to begin the New Year has reached a DC record five days. However, that streak will almost certainly end today, and so will not challenge the more general eight-day January 60+ degree streak that began on January 2, 1998.

The 60+ degree weather streak has ended, but it established a DC record for the first five days of the year for both average maximum and average mean temperatures.  January 1-5, 2023 averaged a 65.0 maximum, breaking the January 1-5, 2000 record of 62.3; and a 55.6 mean, breaking the January 1-5, 1950 record of 54.5.

[RodneyS]

DCA finished January 2023 with the third warmest (of 153 years) January average temperature in DC -- 45.2 degrees.  January 1950 is # 1 at 48.0 and January 1932 is # 2 at 46.8.

[RodneyS]

On 2/1/2023 at 10:26 AM, RodneyS said:

DCA finished January 2023 with the third warmest (of 153 years) January average temperature in DC -- 45.2 degrees.  January 1950 is # 1 at 48.0 and January 1932 is # 2 at 46.8.

Speaking of warm, DCA broke the high temperature record for February 23rd today with a maximum of 81 (old record 78, set in 1874).  That was the 4th 80-degree plus February reading in DC history, with the highest being 84 on February 25, 1930.  IAD also broke the record today with a maximum of 80 (old record 77, set in 2017).  That tied February 21, 2018 for the highest February reading in IAD history.

[Eskimo Joe]

We are so due for a crazy flood/severe season.

[WxUSAF]

8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We are so due for a crazy flood/severe season.

Our standards are very different, but last year had the fewest thunderstorms for MBY I can recall living in MD.

[Its a Breeze]

Not close to Christmas Eve Eve's 43 degree same day temperature change, but yesterday's 36 degree temp change (in the wrong, but felt so right, way) was the second 35+ degree same day change we've seen so far this season...

[Eskimo Joe]

13 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Our standards are very different, but last year had the fewest thunderstorms for MBY I can recall living in MD.

Once the mesonet stations go in this year, we'll have better access to identifying mesoscale features and supporting warn-on (hopefully!) processes. Really exciting times coming locally to summer weather lovers.

[RodneyS]

On 2/1/2023 at 10:26 AM, RodneyS said:

DCA finished January 2023 with the third warmest (of 153 years) January average temperature in DC -- 45.2 degrees.  January 1950 is # 1 at 48.0 and January 1932 is # 2 at 46.8.

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.7 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

[WxUSAF]

Warmest February on record for BWI and 3rd for DCA I believe.

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, RodneyS said:

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.8 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

If you wanted to draw up a start to the warmest year on record, this is how you'd do it.

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

If you wanted to draw up a start to the warmest year on record, this is how you'd do it.

if we really do flip to a Niño, we might just do it.  We are due for a brutal summer.

[pazzo83]

46F for Jan + Feb is insane - that's basically a normal Jan & Feb for Atlanta, GA.

[RodneyS]

15 hours ago, RodneyS said:

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.8 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

The 2022-23 meteorological winter (DJF) at DCA was the third warmest in DC history, averaging 43.9 degrees on a true (90 day average) basis.  Interestingly, two long-ago winters have it beat -- 1931-32 (91 days) averaged 44.7 and 1889-90 (90 days) averaged 44.3.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

I'm calculating the unweighted DJF average for BWI to be 42.0, which is tied for 4th warmest with 1880 and 1950. 

[RodneyS]

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'm calculating the unweighted DJF average for BWI to be 42.0, which is tied for 4th warmest with 1880 and 1950. 

It's interesting that the Good Old Days also had some very warm winters -- it's just that they were much less frequent than nowadays.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

24 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

It's interesting that the Good Old Days also had some very warm winters -- it's just that they were much less frequent than nowadays.

Late 1940's / early 1950's seemed to be an incredibly warm and bad stretch too: The 1948-49 winter was 3rd warmest, and 1949-50 was tied for 4th warmest. 1949-50 was also the least snowiest year on record for BWI. Somehow 1948-49 managed to score 19.9" despite being so warm though. 1950 did feature a colder than average March after the DJF torch though. 

[RodneyS]

On 3/1/2023 at 9:29 AM, RodneyS said:

The 2022-23 meteorological winter (DJF) at DCA was the third warmest in DC history, averaging 43.9 degrees on a true (90 day average) basis.  Interestingly, two long-ago winters have it beat -- 1931-32 (91 days) averaged 44.7 and 1889-90 (90 days) averaged 44.3.

The 2022-23 astronomical winter (December 21-March 20) and composite winter (December 1-March 20) at DCA followed suit, with each also coming as the third warmest in DC history.  The former averaged 44.8 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.9 and 2019-20 at 45.5.  The latter averaged 44.3 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.6 and 2019-20 at 44.6.

[dallen7908]

Yet another excuse if 2023-2024 fails to deliver. 

 

"When Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai (HTHH) erupted in January 2022, it shot the standard volcanic cocktail of ash, gas, and pulverized rock into the sky. But the eruption included one extra ingredient that’s now causing climate concerns: a significant splash of ocean water. The underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water into the stratosphere like a geyser, potentially contributing to atmospheric warming over the next 5 years, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change.

The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said." 

[WxUSAF]

More than the direct warming from Hunga-Tonga, the water vapor getting into the winter stratospheric polar vortex will on balance tend to strengthen it. We already saw that in the southern hemisphere last year, with record cold winter vortex temps. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

More than the direct warming from Hunga-Tonga, the water vapor getting into the winter stratospheric polar vortex will on balance tend to strengthen it. We already saw that in the southern hemisphere last year, with record cold winter vortex temps. 

Before the SSWE, I thought vortex was pretty strong this winter. Siberia had record cold much of Jan and Feb

[fujiwara79]

On 3/20/2023 at 9:07 PM, RodneyS said:

The 2022-23 astronomical winter (December 21-March 20) and composite winter (December 1-March 20) at DCA followed suit, with each also coming as the third warmest in DC history.  The former averaged 44.8 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.9 and 2019-20 at 45.5.  The latter averaged 44.3 degrees, behind only 2011-12 at 45.6 and 2019-20 at 44.6.

2011-12 was even worse than this winter.  The only snow I saw was from Hurricane Sandy around Halloween.

[RodneyS]

On 2/28/2023 at 5:52 PM, RodneyS said:

February 2023 was another warm one at DCA, averaging 46.8 degrees, good enough for third all-time in DC, behind only 2017 (47.7) and 1976 (46.9).  Moreover, while neither January nor February 2023 broke the DC average monthly high temperature record, the two months combined did, averaging 45.9 degrees for the first 59 days of the year.  The previous record-holder was January-February 1932, which averaged a full degree lower, at 44.9 for the first 60 days (60 days because 1932 was a leap year. However, if the first 59 days of 1932 are used instead, they also averaged 44.9.)

March 2023 averaged 49.1 degrees at DCA, 26th warmest March in DC history.  However, because March 2012 was the warmest March all-time in DC at 56.8, January-March 2023 is only the second warmest quarterly start to a calendar year, at 47.0 degrees-- January-March 2012 averaged 47.3.

[RodneyS]

On 3/31/2023 at 10:23 PM, RodneyS said:

March 2023 averaged 49.1 degrees at DCA, 26th warmest March in DC history.  However, because March 2012 was the warmest March all-time in DC at 56.8, January-March 2023 is only the second warmest quarterly start to a calendar year, at 47.0 degrees-- January-March 2012 averaged 47.3.

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

[MN Transplant]

5 hours ago, RodneyS said:

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

Blazing start to the year.

[RodneyS]

On 5/1/2023 at 9:31 AM, RodneyS said:

April 2023 averaged 62.1 degrees at DCA, tied for third warmest April in DC history.  Moreover, January-April 2023 is the warmest 4-month (120-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 50.8 degrees-- surpassing 2017 (also 120 days) at 50.2 degrees and 2012 (121 days) at 50.1 degrees.

May 2023 provided a sharp contrast to the prior four months at DCA, averaging just 65.0 degrees -- tied for 75th all-time warmest May in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-May 2023 dropped to the second warmest 5-month (151-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 53.7 degrees -- falling behind January-May 2012 (152 days) at 54.4 degrees.

[RodneyS]

On 5/31/2023 at 6:52 PM, RodneyS said:

May 2023 provided a sharp contrast to the prior four months at DCA, averaging just 65.0 degrees -- tied for 75th all-time warmest May in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-May 2023 dropped to the second warmest 5-month (151-day) start to a calendar year in DC history, at 53.7 degrees -- falling behind January-May 2012 (152 days) at 54.4 degrees.

June 2023 at DCA followed suit with May, averaging only 74.1 degrees -- tied for 76th all-time warmest June in DC history and 2.2 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal. As a result, January-June 2023 dropped further behind 2012, and also fell behind 2017, for the warmest first half of a calendar year in DC.  Specifically, the first half of 2023 (181 days) averaged 57.1 degrees at DCA, behind 2012 (182 days) at 58.0 and 2017 (181 days) at 57.3.

[RodneyS]

Despite the intense heat in much of the Northern Hemisphere this summer, DCA has yet to record its first 95-degree or higher day. The last time that failed to occur at DCA by July 21st was 2004, when the hottest temperature recorded all year was just 92.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 2/29/2012 at 4:32 PM, Bob Chill said:

Good work with the stats. I'd be interested how locations removed from urban heat islands stack up with the same stats. Breaking warmth records seems easy in DC nowadays but I wonder if the data is skewed a bit by the heat island effect.

Here are the Top Ten warmest years at several other sites in the greater Mid-Atlantic region. This runaway urban heat island effect is serious sh*t.

Charlottesville, VA - 7 of top 10 since 2012

Clarksburg, WV - 8 of top 10 since 2012, 9 of top 10 since 2005

Hagerstown, MD - 8 of top 10 since 2010

Morgantown, WV - 6 of top 10 since 2012

 

Elkins, WV - 6 of top 10 since 2012, 7 since 2005

Martinsburg, WV - not sure what was going on with the sensor in the late 90s, but still 4 of top 10 since 2011

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 10/11/2017 at 7:06 AM, PCT_ATC said:

Need to rename the title of this thread to the NEW NORMAL

Careful. If there's one thing I've learned in my 25-odd years in these weather communities, it's that you need to use euphemisms like "extreme run" or "runaway urban heat island effect" or the "never-ending runaway Lezak recurring warm cycle."

[TheClimateChanger]

The "extreme run" has continued into 2023. Here are some rankings for smaller communities in the greater Mid-Atlantic region. One thing that's interesting is when you look at shorter time frames, you tend to get more years in the past. However, in that era, there would be cooler periods that would often drop them in the rankings. In the current "extreme run" era, the heat is just relentless.

Clarksburg, WV - 2nd warmest to date

Elkins, WV - 6th warmest to date

Morgantown, WV - 7th warmest to date

Hagerstown, MD - 4th warmest to date

Charlottesville, VA - 3rd warmest to date

[NOTE: A lot of missing data for 1930 & 1932. Since this is calculated by averaging days, those years may be inflated if the missing data is from early in the year when mean temps are cooler.]