Uncle Nasty Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looking at all the current data and reading other severe storm specialists opinions leads me to think our area could be in store for the worst severe weather since 4/27 of last year.I'm in no way comparing the possibilities to that day in regards to all the widespread damage but people in the Chattanooga area are being apathetic for the most part in regards to "possible severe/tornadic activity. I love good storms but hope any damage will be limited or non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Ya reading on some other forums there seems to be some urgency about how bad this could really get. The Atmosphere at this time seems very ripe to build some monster storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm completely shocked this thread still has 1 page. The Ohio Valley version is at 8. I guess the winter beat the weather enjoyment out of a lot of people, or we've lost most of our mets or something. Anyway, new SPC outlook was as strong as a moderate can be and an upgrade to high risk seems likely tomorrow given the probabilities in this outlook and the size of the moderate area. Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19jpc Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Not trying to be an A$$ but Gainesville Georgia has seen two major tornadoes one of those killing 230. As you know Gainesville is in NEGA. I live in Dahlonega and your correct it's amazing how storms ALMOST always die out. I tend to think the wedge has lots to do with it not so much Alabama mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms. Well considering he came from Little Rock, AR prior to coming to Atlanta, it makes sense that he wouldn't know that. He's got a lot to learn about N. GA weather, it's worlds apart from AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms. People I will NOT consult with to write this threat off: Mike Francis, Atlanta TV Met snowstorm 2011, Weather Watcher, Carrolton, Those 1500 foot Alabama hills will not stop a tornado if the conditions are right and they could be. I had a tornado cross as an EF3 10 miles south of me just last year that cleared a path up a mountain over 1500 feet, easy! This threat is real and where it may not be realized in your backyard, I would check back in just in case something changes. Wouldn't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I'm completely shocked this thread still has 1 page. The Ohio Valley version is at 8. I guess the winter beat the weather enjoyment out of a lot of people, or we've lost most of our mets or something. Anyway, new SPC outlook was as strong as a moderate can be and an upgrade to high risk seems likely tomorrow given the probabilities in this outlook and the size of the moderate area. As someone else has mentioned, there isn't a lot of posters in the more high risk areas. I've wished for years we would have more posters from Al and tn but for whatever reason we've never had many...although our Tn poster numbers seem to have increased a bit over time. But some of them are in the gray zone as far as to where to post to be honest. You could make a valid argument it makes more sense for some of them to post in the midwest forum than here (especially western sections) , since their weather seems to match up more to whats going on there than in ga/carolinas. Fortunately for us the central and eastern tn members do post here quite a bit. On the same token, Second is most of the mets in our forum are not from Tn, and certainly not Al and most of us oldies who have been around long enough to pick up a few things live east of the mountains. Lastly, severe weather has never been our #1 interest here in general in the southeast it seems....it's of course winter weather. (as contrary to logic as that is given it is the south lol). I'm one of them...I love t-storms but I rarely get very excited about it. (part of that is where I live..more often than not storms do fall apart fast after they past atlanta in these situations). It will pick up though when things start firing but the pre event discussion just never seems to be that great here, unless the threat is insane...like a few times last year. Probably because the worst of the weather will be in AL,TN, KY, etc... not many people on this forum from those states. Outside of extreme NW GA, I don't see this being a big event for most of GA. This is your typical severe weather event where things are going strong in AL and TN and just die out once they hit the GA border. I've seen it happen 10 million times and I see no reason why this will be any different. Atlanta TV meteorologist Mike Francis, who is new to GA, was very puzzled by this and he has come to the conclusion that it is due to a mini-wedge that is often in place in GA. Either that, or it's those huge 1,500 feet mountains in East AL that destroy the storms. Silly post. Moderate risk into the NW half of ga now with respectable threats for hail and wind fo a lot of ga and the carolinas is decent enough and isn't your typical mid south severe weather event decaying into nothing as it hits ga. Plus There is not much evidence things will just die out as they hit the border. And there will be no wedge whatsover in georgia or sc. The only place to see a wedge of any magnitude will be over the far western foothills of nc. The primary negative is timing, with storms coming at night which results in lack of surface instability. Plus the worst of the mid level dynamics will pass off to our north but we still should have respectable conditions here. My primary concern is everything groups together or we have line segments which normally doesn't favor supercells/tornadoes, etc as much as individual storms of course or it just turns into a large area of general t-storms which takes the severe weather threat down quite a bit. That said, you are right about one thing....we have seen a ton of severe weather events or just a lot of good/strong t-storms that just fell apart as they hit the ga border. It's amazing how consistent such an occurrence is..as if the storms know where the ga border is.I've never really bought into the elevation thing because if you look at an elevation map, storms should not fall apart like they do near the border. Plus if it's those "huge 1500 foot mountains" then we would see the same thing in arkansas happen all the time, they have elevations higher than that in northwest half and they don't see storms fall apart there. (although dynamics there are often much stronger than here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The storms that went over Nashville calmed down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Got pea to penny sized hail in east nashville (just a mile ne of downtown) Most of the Tennessee folks don't post here - we're over at Tennesseewx.com. Not a lot of mets, but plenty of knowledgable amatuers, and folks in school for meteorology. We're taking this threat pretty seriously. OHX's AFD yesterday afternoon has folks running on all cylinders. They are a pretty conservative forecast office - so seeing them so worried is, well, worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Severe weather is not the same for speculation as winter weather. Totally different beast...Much more real time/same day in nature. Ask the people in Ringgold and Cherokee Valley Road how much the 1500+ ft mountains did to stop that tornado....or Trenton for that matter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 HIGH Risk initiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 HIGH Risk initiated. Not what I wanted to see. My son and MIL are in the high risk zone visiting family. UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 KY and TN under the gun again today. I really hope the timing of the storms coming into NC helps us out. Hopefully, if they come in overnight and into the morning they will not be as strong since they won't have the heating of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 As someone else has mentioned, there isn't a lot of posters in the more high risk areas. I've wished for years we would have more posters from Al and tn but for whatever reason we've never had many...although our Tn poster numbers seem to have increased a bit over time. Well hello there, new Nashville resident here! Unfortunately I won't be able to report from the Ground Zero Ol' Opry today, leaving for Little Rock in about 30 minutes. Sounds like I'll be in Arkansas and west of the action when the tornadoes start popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Had some pea size hail in a small cell that developed this morning around 7:15am. Also currently, we have a thin line of storms moving NNE through southern Union Co. I 'm guessing its the warm front pushing north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Another Tennessean here, although I'm mostly lurking as I am still learning the ropes and usually don't have anything intelligent to add to the conversation. I monitor the board religiously during severe weather and, of course, during "hopeful" snow events. I do wish we had more TN mets on here, especially TODAY...but really enjoy the posts from my NC, SC and GA neighbors! I also hang out on the TN weather board. Keep safe everyone! Firing up my GRLevel2 right now (I finally got it updated to be able to download the new data format). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Things seem to be firing up in AL now from what I read at another board. Not sure why it is so quiet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Some of us Tennesseans lurk here despite the focus typically being on NC/SC/GA, but most of our discussion is taking place on Tennessee focused forums such as tnweatherspot.com. Y'all stay safe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Another Tennessean here, although I'm mostly lurking as I am still learning the ropes and usually don't have anything intelligent to add to the conversation. I monitor the board religiously during severe weather and, of course, during "hopeful" snow events. I do wish we had more TN mets on here, especially TODAY...but really enjoy the posts from my NC, SC and GA neighbors! I also hang out on the TN weather board. Keep safe everyone! Firing up my GRLevel2 right now (I finally got it updated to be able to download the new data format). Welcome to the board. . The more the merrier from TN because the more we have the more focus will be payed attention to them and hopefully some mets decide join and weigh in. Just be sure to tell your friends about us because you all are very welcomed By the way, could you put your location in your profile? It always helps to know where someone is Some of us Tennesseans lurk here despite the focus typically being on NC/SC/GA, but most of our discussion is taking place on Tennessee focused forums such as tnweatherspot.com. Y'all stay safe today. A ways back there was a georgia forum I was apart of but I split my time between there and here. A while back, georgia was pretty much in the same position as Tn. There were only a handful of people, including myself, that ever posted. By far, probably 80%, of the focus was on the carolinas. I won't lie, it was *very frustrating* But more and more people decided to post and it eventually lead to Ga mets joining and a lot more focus on Ga. Don't be shy about posting though. I think it's important to have more focus on Tn/al. I'm pretty well versed in the weather of the carolinas/ga, as is most posters here, but most aren't too familiar with the climo of TN...although I would like to be. So it's very important that you guys speak up as much as possible. I think I speak for most in that all of you are encouraged to contribute and educate us on the ins and outs of Tn weather. It's quite different it seems from areas east of the mountains so we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021507Z - 021600Z RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. ..ROGERS.. 03/02/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I just looked at the obs around Memphis, many places reporting mostly SUNNY. Heat is building... man I don't like this one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Weak rotation being reported in Limestone/Northern Madison County cell in North Central AL... along with golfball sized hail and destructive winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Our first catch of the day BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 945 AM CST * AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... CAPSHAW. HARVEST. MERIDIANVILLE. HAZEL GREEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This looks like it is going to be a long day for AL, GA, TN, and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Most of these storms are elevated and riding along the warm front. This is well ahead of the main event which will fire up later this afternoon. Tornado Watch will go out shortly for extreme NW Georgia, northern Alabama, middle and eastern Tennessee until 4 PM. This will be the first of many this afternoon as the atmosphere to the west of the warm front is getting juiced up. Tornado WATCH up for the areas mentioned above just after I hit submit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 927 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN OVERTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... PUTNAM COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1000 AM CST * AT 924 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAXTER...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BAXTER AROUND 935 AM CST. COOKEVILLE AROUND 940 AM CST. ALGOOD AROUND 945 AM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 930 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHWEST GEORGIA MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 930 AM UNTIL 300 PM CST. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 55... DISCUSSION...A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. MODIFICATION OF 12Z BNA AND HUNTSVILLE SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Classic hook echo with that tornado warning NW of Huntsville AL. Not good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 This is for the warned cell in N AL ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR NORTHERN MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTIES... AT 925 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARVEST...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF MADISON...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. AT 925 AM...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OF LIMESTONE COUNTY REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE TO HOUSES BETWEEN ATHENS AND EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY HIGH SCHOOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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