Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 In all seriousness though... I do think the GFS was most consistent with this. Using the model with tweaks was the best way to go on this one. yeah that's a fair way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 My biggest storm was 3.9". What else is there to say. Good bye and good riddance. Messenger will still argue that I didn't have bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like Radar is breaking up to the West of me and its needle like snow here now. There's a nice slew of radar way West but my fear is that as it moves East it drys up. Mets, what are your thoughts? Are we done or is there a third installment to this storm late afternoon? I think you'll tack on another 2-4 inches. The atmosphere is primed and the fact that you are getting snow under a clear radar is a good sign for the next batch. Same for most ares north of the pike. There is a modest UL vort that will swing through this afternoon but the lift is not all that impressive (certainly less than I expected) ... the UL deals can be hit or miss but fortunately there is continued onshore flow from the surface 2ndary... that may keep today's snowfall a bit more uniform than it would be with a typical plodding ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What a flat out boring storm so far up here. I missed the brunt of part 1 which featured the most consistent heavy rates. It's basically been all light snow with periods of grains and then some moderate to heavy showers. The lulls between the accumulating snows have been 1-2 hours. If we somehow pull off 10" it'll be one of the biggest snoozefest double digit events I can remember. I'll also add that I find the wind annoying. It's just strong enough to be a pain in the rear for measuring but it doesn't add any ferocity to the storm. Same here. Not that impressed...snow for almost 12 hours and we've probably only gotten about 6 or so inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LOL- Dave spelled Hubbardston wrong last night so they kept his last night total in the PNS BOYLSTON 7.5 731 AM 3/01 NONE HUBBARDSTON 7.2 950 AM 3/01 GENERAL PUBLIC TEMPLETON 7.0 819 AM 3/01 NONE WORCESTER 6.5 700 AM 3/01 WORCESTER AIRPORT CLINTON 6.5 706 AM 3/01 HAM RADIO ASHBURNHAM 6.5 700 AM 3/01 CO-OP MILLBURY 6.3 814 AM 3/01 GENERAL PUBLIC LEOMINSTER 6.0 710 AM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER MILFORD 5.6 512 AM 3/01 GENERAL PUBLIC PHILLIPSTON 5.5 945 AM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER WESTBOROUGH 5.1 802 AM 3/01 NWS EMPLOYEE SHREWSBURY 5.0 750 AM 3/01 HAM RADIO SOUTHBRIDGE 5.0 634 AM 3/01 NONE DUDLEY 4.8 813 PM 2/29 HAM RADIO NORTH BROOKFIELD 4.5 647 AM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER GRAFTON 4.5 733 AM 3/01 NONE NORTHBRIDGE 4.0 700 AM 3/01 CO-OP LEICESTER 4.0 1100 PM 2/29 TRAINED SPOTTER SPENCER 3.5 708 AM 3/01 HAM RADIO HUBBARSTON 3.2 724 PM 2/29 HAM RADIO PAXTON 2.0 459 PM 2/29 HAM RADIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 nah it was pretty good if you took into account that it's resolution wouldn't handle the low-level CAD well. but it handled the mid-levels better than any piece of guidance. it gave CT a good front end thump which is exactly what happened. it was the only model that really suggested it could get warm enough for rain up into the lower elevations of N CT and up into parts of MA near the pike. it consistently pushed the mid-level warmth to the pike. the euro and nam didn't catch this idea until very very late in the game. the fact that ice warrior had sleet last night - the euro about 2 days ago wouldn't have got sleet to LL. remember your ridiculous post to Joe to ride the euro for snow to sleet to snow and 3 to 5"? Part of this may have been not necessarily all thermal profile related but the dry punch above 600mb that eliminated a lot of ice crystals from the clouds making snow growth a challenge. Particularly challenging was the omega max around 750mb which virtually assured -RA given the thermal profile. Either way using the gfs and some common sense lead to some great forecasts. I had 2.5 in Hartford and 4 at BDL and there was 2.7 and 4.4, respectively. Not bad... especially considering the Euro and NAM argued for double or triple that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Same here. Not that impressed...snow for almost 12 hours and we've probably only gotten about 6 or so inches. I can't say I feel sorry for either of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What a flat out boring storm so far up here. I missed the brunt of part 1 which featured the most consistent heavy rates. It's basically been all light snow with periods of grains and then some moderate to heavy showers. The lulls between the accumulating snows have been 1-2 hours. If we somehow pull off 10" it'll be one of the biggest snoozefest double digit events I can remember. I'll also add that I find the wind annoying. It's just strong enough to be a pain in the rear for measuring but it doesn't add any ferocity to the storm. Yeah, not too interesting. Agreed on all points, especially the wind. I may have to extrapolate, interpolate and other -olates to come up with a number. Gonna take the kids out sledding probably after lunch ... maybe that'll lend some excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ...so the nam was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 My biggest storm was 3.9". What else is there to say. Good bye and good riddance. Messenger will still argue that I didn't have bad luck. Yeah you guys have just been in a terrible rut. You'll make up for it soon. CT has been OK we had a decent thump last week, decent thump late January (nearly a foot south) and the miraculous october storm that was the most memorable storm of many of our lives back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Nice band headed into NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Part of this may have been not necessarily all thermal profile related but the dry punch above 600mb that eliminated a lot of ice crystals from the clouds making snow growth a challenge. Particularly challenging was the omega max around 750mb which virtually assured -RA given the thermal profile. Either way using the gfs and some common sense lead to some great forecasts. I had 2.5 in Hartford and 4 at BDL and there was 2.7 and 4.4, respectively. Not bad... especially considering the Euro and NAM argued for double or triple that. this is where it would be nice to have access to the full euro data set. so that all aspects of it could be evaluated too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 My biggest storm was 3.9". What else is there to say. Good bye and good riddance. Messenger will still argue that I didn't have bad luck. Did you get snow yesterday? I thought I saw someone posting photos of snow in Boston which would make me think you got something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 this is where it would be nice to have access to the full euro data set. so that all aspects of it could be evaluated too. Yeah we're flying blind with the Euro a lot of the time for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 5" Lots of graupel-like pellet balls mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Just measured...6.5-7.5'' depending on where I measured. Hopefully I can crack 8-9'' later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 this is where it would be nice to have access to the full euro data set. so that all aspects of it could be evaluated too. The euro had that drier air in the mid levels. I usually find models are just way too aggressive with developing precip (esp snow) when there is no RH in the mid levels. I mean how often are you going to get .5" QPF in 6hrs from lift in the 850-700mb layer. You just aren't, unless it's mesoscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Did you get snow yesterday? I thought I saw someone posting photos of snow in Boston which would make me think you got something. 1.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The euro had that drier air in the mid levels. I usually find models are just way too aggressive with developing precip (esp snow) when there is no RH in the mid levels. I mean how often are you going to get .5" QPF in 6hrs from lift in the 850-700mb layer. You just aren't, unless it's mesoscale. Yeah that's why the NAM was such a joke yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Part of this may have been not necessarily all thermal profile related but the dry punch above 600mb that eliminated a lot of ice crystals from the clouds making snow growth a challenge. Particularly challenging was the omega max around 750mb which virtually assured -RA given the thermal profile. Either way using the gfs and some common sense lead to some great forecasts. I had 2.5 in Hartford and 4 at BDL and there was 2.7 and 4.4, respectively. Not bad... especially considering the Euro and NAM argued for double or triple that. I did as well...just blending all the guidance in. I used the GFS as the what can go wrong card and threw it in. I thought maybe my lower end was too low, but turns out it may be too high...lol. Luckily I was at home so didn't have to really forecast, but I would have went 3-5" figuring we could grab an inch or two in the front end and at least get 2" today. I thought adding all the bits and pieces up would get to that amount easily. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah that's why the NAM was such a joke yesterday 15" for BOS..lol. Ok. I also find the opposite is true with mid level RH. Usually when it's saturated with some omega, models are not bullish enough. I try to look for good mid level RH and lift. That's usually where the weenie bands end up. Worked for Philly in Feb 2010, western mass last Jan 2011, and the October blitz this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 BOX tossed the gfs...and will bust high in BOS. Could bust in more areas too but it depends on what this last band of snow does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 15" for BOS..lol. Ok. I also find the opposite is true with mid level RH. Usually when it's saturated with some omega, models are not bullish enough. I try to look for good mid level RH and lift. That's usually where the weenie bands end up. Worked for Philly in Feb 2010, western mass last Jan 2011, and the October blitz this year. Yeah agreed. Sometimes looking at the model soundings you really get a good feeling about a given setup. This one was just sort of blah. That's why I really wanted the front thump to overperform because I thought that had potential. The forecast was tough northeast of here but I didn't look too closely at the forecast up in Massachusetts like I did back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 15" for BOS..lol. Ok. I also find the opposite is true with mid level RH. Usually when it's saturated with some omega, models are not bullish enough. I try to look for good mid level RH and lift. That's usually where the weenie bands end up. Worked for Philly in Feb 2010, western mass last Jan 2011, and the October blitz this year. All three ku's last winter did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 5" here. 1.75" new since midnight. Temp at 34 degrees. Roads are just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like between 2-3" here so far. 5.5" reported at the burke mtn summit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 5.5" at the board cleaning. So that's 3.5" in 6 hours. Snow growth is crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah agreed. Sometimes looking at the model soundings you really get a good feeling about a given setup. This one was just sort of blah. That's why I really wanted the front thump to overperform because I thought that had potential. The forecast was tough northeast of here but I didn't look too closely at the forecast up in Massachusetts like I did back here. Yeah nothing was easy, although I think the ORH area was the easier setup because they were cold all along...jsut a question of how much QPF. At least you guys had the good thump in the aftn. I knew that would crap out a bit, but even the GFS argued a few inches today. Even on the euro there were some flags when you looked at the QPF distribution. Of course hindsight is 20/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Same here. Not that impressed...snow for almost 12 hours and we've probably only gotten about 6 or so inches. Yeah, not too interesting. Agreed on all points, especially the wind. I may have to extrapolate, interpolate and other -olates to come up with a number. Gonna take the kids out sledding probably after lunch ... maybe that'll lend some excitement. 6" of depression, What this winter has done to folks, Any snow is good snow boring or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 All three ku's last winter did that Yeah those were actually much easier to forecast. Everything came together, just a matter of seeing where the heaviest snow would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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