ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS wins this event i think. feel like the euro and gfs have gone back and forth this winter...almost on a per storm basis. Don't tell Kev, he'll think you're a bad MET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 unfortunately...seems like whatever solution was the crappier...won. I personally get a kick out of seeing the emotions out of people on here. Meltdowns, anger, disgust, bashing, you name it, we saw it yesterday into today. As has been the case pretty much this whole winter season, the crappier solutions won. Looks like it was a solid event up N&W which is great for the businesses up there that rely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Looks like Radar is breaking up to the West of me and its needle like snow here now. There's a nice slew of radar way West but my fear is that as it moves East it drys up. Mets, what are your thoughts? Are we done or is there a third installment to this storm late afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 32.8\32 4.5" This is exactly like Halloween...entirely unremarkable, yet will be enough to conquer futility. 2012. I was thinking the same exact thing. 33.8 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Am I jumping the gun after looking at the total so far vs the BOX forecast map looks like a bust for most areas? or is the 2nd and 3rd go around really going to produce? BOX has upped the daytime accums here to 4-6". Their forecast has been spot on out here. Slow and steady getting it done although starting to come down pretty good here. Chomping at the bit to get out on the skis but need to wait for the wife to get home take over parenting duties. Luckily the baby loves watching the snow fall. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Don't tell Kev, he'll think you're a bad MET ha...yeah i'm sure he'll bash that post if he sees it. but it is what it is. the euro was just too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Highest totals in CT... 5.6" Nofolk 5.8" No. Granby AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ha...yeah i'm sure he'll bash that post if he sees it. but it is what it is. the euro was just too cold. And much too impressive on the back end/round 2 (which is really why it was too cold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ha...yeah i'm sure he'll bash that post if he sees it. but it is what it is. the euro was just too cold. Too cold and too bullish...probably go hand in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 And much too impressive on the back end/round 2 (which is really why it was too cold). Yeah I thought this second part would be better yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 When you have a long and drawn out event with little in the way of forcing..this is what happens. You can't rely on spurious s/w's embedded in the flow to blow up QPF. The main s/w was so far west that it's not a surprise models were all over the place with convection, s/w's, low placement..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's uncanny how when the EURO blows, it nails it.....but when it's one of the more favorable soloutions, it pukes all over itself. Especially this season. I hope it doesn't snow again and we can move onto the warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yeah I thought this second part would be better yesterday morning. In the end it was just a bizarre setup. Seems like the models were trying to develop convection (which happened) and move it east and develop a low offshore. I get the feeling too much convective feedback was going into the developing low that was modeled. In the end conservative on this one was the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Snow/sleet mix has started up again..Let's add on another 1-3 today hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Also, beginning to think the temps will fall short of the predicted "steady near 30*" as I'm at 27.2 and it hasn't budged. Perhaps that colder air will benefit folks further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS wins this event i think. feel like the euro and gfs have gone back and forth this winter...almost on a per storm basis. WHAT?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Their forecast has been spot on out here. Slow and steady getting it done although starting to come down pretty good here. Chomping at the bit to get out on the skis but need to wait for the wife to get home take over parenting duties. Luckily the baby loves watching the snow fall. lol Just came in from snowblowing. The mice were not happy. I measured 7.2", but did not clear every 6 hours, so maybe we got more due to compaction. This is dense stuff. I have a few errands to run, then I will head to Wachusett for a few hours. I sent 7.2" into BOX, hopefully we can get another few inches. Still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 That's probably realistic, but yesterday was just crap luck. It's one thing to expect it, but another thing when everyone else except you does better. At that point, you throw your hands up. Scott my take on it is given the setup as it came together, given the fact that we knew maritime air would get inland somewhat...the areas that got snow like Easton, Taunton, Randolph were lucky...not that Boston was unlucky. It's no surprise Will got snow or Ray....but I think there's two ways of looking at it from the immediate coast around Boston down to the Cape. Let's hope for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 It's uncanny how when the EURO blows, it nails it.....but when it's one of the more favorable soloutions, it pukes all over itself. Especially this season. I hope it doesn't snow again and we can move onto the warm weather. Amen...I'm done with slush events. Give me April 1997 or give me 65F and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Snow/sleet mix has started up again..Let's add on another 1-3 today hopefully 1-3???? Today????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Because they haven't driven in snow since Wade Boggs left town. Lol. If I drank coffee in the morning, I would have spit it all over my keyboard with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Don't tell Kev, he'll think you're a bad MET Dude I hope you guys are just joking or trolling...the GFS was the worst of all the models on this..It's thermal profile was enbarrassing. It gave me no snow until like 18 hours in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 In the end it was just a bizarre setup. Seems like the models were trying to develop convection (which happened) and move it east and develop a low offshore. I get the feeling too much convective feedback was going into the developing low that was modeled. In the end conservative on this one was the way to go. Yeah I remember we were talking that possibility in the morning. I think I said something like "Gee I hope the precip isn't too convective where it moves ENE from the Delmarva and can't expand into SNE.." or something like that. But then when the 12z euro looked nicer as did the 12z GFS..I didn't worry too much. I was wrong with that. I also think this whole system came north a bit and the better forcing is now over NNE. So perhaps a two part screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 1-3???? Today????????? Absolutly..Certainly in the hills..Look at the radar. Even yor boss Bob had 1-3 for the hilltowns this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 +SN 17.8F 3.3" snowfall so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Absolutly..Certainly in the hills..Look at the radar. Even yor boss Bob had 1-3 for the hilltowns this morning I'm sure you'll slantstick your way there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 In all seriousness though... I do think the GFS was most consistent with this. Using the model with tweaks was the best way to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Dude I hope you guys are just joking or trolling...the GFS was the worst of all the models on this..It's thermal profile was enbarrassing. It gave me no snow until like 18 hours in advance nah it was pretty good if you took into account that it's resolution wouldn't handle the low-level CAD well. but it handled the mid-levels better than any piece of guidance. it gave CT a good front end thump which is exactly what happened. it was the only model that really suggested it could get warm enough for rain up into the lower elevations of N CT and up into parts of MA near the pike. it consistently pushed the mid-level warmth to the pike. the euro and nam didn't catch this idea until very very late in the game. the fact that ice warrior had sleet last night - the euro about 2 days ago wouldn't have got sleet to LL. remember your ridiculous post to Joe to ride the euro for snow to sleet to snow and 3 to 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What a flat out boring storm so far up here. I missed the brunt of part 1 which featured the most consistent heavy rates. It's basically been all light snow with periods of grains and then some moderate to heavy showers. The lulls between the accumulating snows have been 1-2 hours. If we somehow pull off 10" it'll be one of the biggest snoozefest double digit events I can remember. I'll also add that I find the wind annoying. It's just strong enough to be a pain in the rear for measuring but it doesn't add any ferocity to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 In all seriousness though... I do think the GFS was most consistent with this. Using the model with tweaks was the best way to go on this one. I agree, and I dare say the closest. Regardless of the snow yesterday in CT, the fact that it was raining to the Pike and beyond (ChrisM reported rain in Hatfield!), suggests an EC fail. 27.1/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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