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Leap into the Dark Side - Feb 29/March 1 Obs/Discussion/Totals


HoarfrostHubb

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Just went out and shoveled a small path to the car for the second time tonight and this time it definitely seemed less fluffy than the earlier batch we had up here. Moderate snow has been redeveloping pretty much right over my head. Looked like it was going to shut off but it hasn't come close yet.

These are low level grains so I think it's just a case that they're below the radar beam until they move NE and get closer to the radar..so they appear to be redeveloping.

As for the NW PA convection...it appeared the 00z RGEM had the best handle on it and it later blitzed MA between 6-18z. We'll see soon.

If you run a WV loop you'll see strong PVA in the region where the convection is firing.

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This is just crazy... Squall line heading to Binghamton and they are reporting unknown precipitation. Folks downstream have got to be loving the radar trends.

2hzgy34.png

I'm looking forward to that moving through here and it's collapsing into the coastal moisture. Snow is more powdery here so maybe we're starting to get some cold air draining in? 28/26 SN

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These are low level grains so I think it's just a case that they're below the radar beam until they move NE and get closer to the radar..so they appear to be redeveloping.

As for the NW PA convection...it appeared the 00z RGEM had the best handle on it and it later blitzed MA between 6-18z. We'll see soon.

If you run a WV loop you'll see strong PVA in the region where the convection is firing.

Thoughts for us later tonight?

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I got my alarm set for 320 i need atleast some sleep but ive been trying to get to bed for an hour lol

That convection is going to disturb the column pretty good if it hits us, lol...someone will prob go from snow grains or light IP to monster aggregates and 1/8 vis.

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These are low level grains so I think it's just a case that they're below the radar beam until they move NE and get closer to the radar..so they appear to be redeveloping.

As for the NW PA convection...it appeared the 00z RGEM had the best handle on it and it later blitzed MA between 6-18z. We'll see soon.

If you run a WV loop you'll see strong PVA in the region where the convection is firing.

That makes sense, it is still accumulating half decent either way around .5 an hour. Just under 4" now, not sure if you got under that return earlier that was giving me quarter sized aggregates but that was probably the best half hour of the storm for me.

That convection in central PA has quite an impressive look to it. And the ULL back over the great lakes area just spinning away, wish I could save the loops of WV and IR sat.

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Thoughts for us later tonight?

I'm not really sure, but I'd like to see that convection plow through here. Otherwise mid-levels are a little too dry for good snow growth and we'll just get -SG'd to death until the mid-levels finally cool and saturate again later tomorrow. What I do know is that I need sleep. I'll be up at 6a though.
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Hmm well slept from 830-just now. Looks like I can et a few more hours in but I'll see what the euro does first.

I hope Wills right about it starting again by 9z...i know the afternoon stuff looks good but I need it to be snowing from 4-7am or I'll have school despite the fact that that would be pretty dumb with the potential rates coming.

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I'm not really sure, but I'd like to see that convection plow through here. Otherwise mid-levels are a little too dry for good snow growth and we'll just get -SG'd to death until the mid-levels finally cool and saturate again later tomorrow. What I do know is that I need sleep. I'll be up at 6a though.

I need sleep too, have to be up at 4 to be to work at 5. Sucks because this could end up being pretty impressive if that convection does continue on a course for us.

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Hmm well slept from 830-just now. Looks like I can et a few more hours in but I'll see what the euro does first.

I hope Wills right about it starting again by 9z...i know the afternoon stuff looks good but I need it to be snowing from 4-7am or I'll have school despite the fact that that would be pretty dumb with the potential rates coming.

I think most schools close tomorrow esp. NE MA since they haven't used any snow days. Unless it's 33 / -RNSN at 6AM...with the tv mets only calling for another inch or two, they'll close. Delays will be useless since the heavier stuff gets in here by PM.

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interesting AFD from northern Pennsylvania regarding that line of boomers headed our way:

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...

almost a Middle-Spring look to the radar scope this evening with

several areas of convection migrating east and northeast across

the region.

A broad area of light to MDT rain...with embedded thunder across

southern Penn was associated with the nose of a southwesterly low level jet

overrunning the steep...quasi stationary surface-925mb front near the

Mason/Dixon lin.

The second...and stronger are of thunderstorms and rain training across northwestern Penn

was associated with more intense lift ahead of a potent middle/upper

level trough...and near the intersection of a surface dryline and

stationary front. It/S quite rare to see a well-defined dry line

in this neck of the Woods /ncent and northestern Ohio/ and especially at

this time of year...but it/S doing a pretty impressive job enhancing

low level convergence and deep convection. Combine this convective

forcing with the highly sheared low-middle levels and we/re seeing

some transient low-topped supercell structure heading toward our far

northwest zones.

The overall trend to the convection should be expanding in areal

coverage late tonight...but weakening in intensity around...or after

midnight as the energy aloft and surface dryline converges

with/overruns the near surface frontal boundary extending from near

kbfd...south to kduj.

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I think most schools close tomorrow esp. NE MA since they haven't used any snow days. Unless

it's 33 / -RNSN at 6AM...with the tv mets only calling for another inch or two, they'll close.

Delays will be useless since the heavier stuff gets in here by PM.

I know delays wilk be useless because of the afternoon snow...but I'm worried that the timing wasn't portrayed to the public well. Also I told everyone to expect a snowday so I'm going to be pissed if I'm wrong.

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That makes sense, it is still accumulating half decent either way around .5 an hour. Just under 4" now, not sure if you got under that return earlier that was giving me quarter sized aggregates but that was probably the best half hour of the storm for me.

I had better snow growth earlier, but nothing earth shattering. There's a little band to my SW now that is moving ever so slowly toward me. Hopefully that produces better than this precipitating sugar.
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Euro must look bad...no ones posting it.

Its actually kind of like 12z for here...a little more tame but still has the burst between 06z and 12z...instead of like 0.40-0.45" though it has like 0.30-0.35" during that time...but I'm not sure how useful models are at this point. I mean it gave the southern tier of NY/N PA a quarter inch of preicp and they are getting an inch in 3 hours there.

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