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Leap into the Dark Side - Feb 29/March 1 Obs/Discussion/Totals


HoarfrostHubb

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well not a big ob/ trend

but turkey hill has inched and i emphasize inched down in temps and dp by .2 in last 30 min in .1 increments.

noted it because it was inching up before and this coincides with heavier echoes on radar. 32.7/31.4 there

dp's above 33 in cambridge/boston/somerville/everett/dorchesta toaster bath time ...unless it goes back to snow here in heavier rates

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What are you expecting for snowfall? And the theory question is...if you expect it to over-perform, how does that impact your expectations?

Honestly if the consensus for a storm is that it will be 6-12" I'll expect the 6" and hope for the foot. In this case the consensus this morning seemed to be a 4-8"/ 5-10" snowfall total for both rounds. Working outside affords me the opportunity to watch the weather unfold minute by minute. When the snow moved in at 2k earlier than progged and the intensity quickly ramped up it just felt like a better than expected showing was in the cards. So, expecting it to over-perform is a function of original expectations meeting new information and morphing into current expectations. I'm currently expecting 12+" but if things break right I might think that the second expectation was low and thus, sensing yet even more over-performance I might then expect 14+" which is the current expectation of some local mets. Of course if my current expectation of 12+" verifies they might feel it under performed if the 12+" turns out to be 13" and not their expected 14+". It's really quite simple. Regardless, the end result is going to be me shirking all responsibilities for the next several days in favor of skiing, skiing, skiing. That's the expectation anyway. I hope that answered your question Scott.

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Anyone else feel SNE could be totally screwed with convection going north and south.

Yeah. The precip to watch is just under state college...I wouldnt' say that the Euro is bad at this point...it may be a smidge south but not much if at all. I don't think it's terribly off track from the Euro FWIW.

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Honestly if the consensus for a storm is that it will be 6-12" I'll expect the 6" and hope for the foot. In this case the consensus this morning seemed to be a 4-8"/ 5-10" snowfall total for both rounds. Working outside affords me the opportunity to watch the weather unfold minute by minute. When the snow moved in at 2k earlier than progged and the intensity quickly ramped up it just felt like a better than expected showing was in the cards. So, expecting it to over-perform is a function of original expectations meeting new information and morphing into current expectations. I'm currently expecting 12+" but if things break right I might think that the second expectation was low and thus, sensing yet even more over-performance I might then expect 14+" which is the current expectation of some local mets. Of course if my current expectation of 12+" verifies they might feel it under performed if the 12+" turns out to be 13" and not their expected 14+". It's really quite simple. Regardless, the end result is going to be me shirking all responsibilities for the next several days in favor of skiing, skiing, skiing. That's the expectation anyway. I hope that answered your question Scott.

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well not a big ob/ trend

but turkey hill has inched and i emphasize inched down in temps and dp by .2 in last 30 min in .1 increments.

noted it because it was inching up before and this coincides with heavier echoes on radar. 32.7/31.4 there

dp's above 33 in cambridge/boston/somerville/everett/dorchesta toaster bath time ...unless it goes back to snow here in heavier rates

Boston would be fine under heavier echoes...their 850s are below 0C by quite a bit. Light precipitation is temporarily allowing the BL to get too warm, but that should change later. I bet Bouchard busts but I have to say I'm surprised Logan is at 35/33.

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Does sleet accumulate quickly?

No offense, but you aren't from this region and you're a little overboard with some of the questions for your backyard and in general. I can see how you were weenied on AccuWx. I'd suggest you just read a bit more.
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No offense, but you aren't from this region and you're a little overboard with some of the questions for your backyard and in general. I can see how you were weenied on AccuWx. I'd suggest you just read a bit more.

WOTY on accuweather board is quite a feat.

Kevin would be like a pro met over there.

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