OKpowdah Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Anyone worried that we're relying on legit convection firing to our west to blossom into "round 2". Seems a little more tenuous than usual. Yes. Exactly as depicted on all meso models at this point. Should that fail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Round 2 might actually come in like an arm if lift. Basically almost like an inv trough, but then echoes may expand as the low develops. At leat that is the hope. What timeframe do you expect we start seeing the precip blossom again? Closer to midnight..or more like 4-5:00am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Really hope so. Meso test tomorrow morning that I would rather not have to take Lol if PSU decides to delay...LSC sucks about that stuff. They never do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Anyone worried that we're relying on legit convection firing to our west to blossom into "round 2". Seems a little more tenuous than usual. I've been worried since this morning. However, the euro made me feel pretty good this afternoon. Now it's back to looking a little dicey, but it's too early to really gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This precip is hauling azz................you know what joey L says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Noyes just mentioned what i was thinking earlier.. New thunderstorms firing in Western PA show intense energy just starting to move into Northeast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 What timeframe do you expect we start seeing the precip blossom again? Closer to midnight..or more like 4-5:00am? If it does happen, probably after 3-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Yes. Exactly as depicted on all meso models at this point. Should that fail... Yeah we're relying on convective initiation to develop a surface low... not pretty. All sorts of convective feedback and thermal profiles dictated by strong latent heat release downstream. That makes this forecast quite a challenge with HUGE bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ryan isn't that stuff in PA sliding due east? is that supposed to shift ENE or "set off" snows regenerating (or ice/rain) overnite....seems like a wiff to the south ....no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 If I'm expecting snow to come from a developing squall line north of Pittsburgh... that has written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I expected ice as well. That new annoying met said no ice I think. I hope we're pleasantly surprised with round 2 but right now my forecast is fail. Lol...who is that, me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 ryan isn't that stuff in PA sliding due east? is that supposed to shift ENE or "set off" snows regenerating (or ice/rain) overnite....seems like a wiff to the south ....no? It's the convection from Detroit to Cleveland we'll have to watch. That other stuff is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 don't you get the feeling that when even a small amount of energy is injected back into the system from that pulse below us things will really fire up again? Nice band banking up against the east slope right now. Not moving much, just regenerating. Channel 40's 14+" for GC should have little trouble verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Really hope so. Meso test tomorrow morning that I would rather not have to take Is that a Koermer exam or is he gone now? If so those are always fun. I think I used 3 blue books for one once. re: HRRR...I don't look at it much past 6hr, but it seems to keep the best deep layer moisture over S NH/N MA tomorrow morning. Hopefully it's wrong for our sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Lol...who is that, me? lol no... you're not new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 CT Blizz, what are you thinking for POU and the surrounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 If I'm expecting snow to come from a developing squall line north of Pittsburgh... that has written all over it. it's thunder, heavy rain, and hail 2 miles north of BWI crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Man, its gonna be close tonight. Going to go to bed now, so I can wake up early and see whats up. Euro gives me 6" more, nam 4" and sleet, gfs not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 CT Blizz, what are you thinking for POU and the surrounding? Other than weenies falling around you...I'd think POU is probably done with the snow..You guys are too far west for round 2 should it mateialize..Prob just some freezing drizzle that will turn to light snow/snow showers tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 lol no... you're not new. Forky isn't new. Perhaps you mean the new hyper met student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 People are second guessing themselves too much. I don't think anything is much different from progged for several cycles now. Of course I have no problem with things getting switched up a little... I'm a shoo-in for rain tonight so I wouldn't mind a chance to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 CT Blizz, what are you thinking for POU and the surrounding? I'm sorry this post is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Think I am done, hopefully some back end or ULL tomorrow. Nice beautiful snowfall though. Hope you EMA guys get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 People are second guessing themselves too much. I don't think anything is much different from progged for several cycles now. Of course I have no problem with things getting switched up a little... I'm a shoo-in for rain tonight so I wouldn't mind a chance to change that. Julian, every forecast seems to be going warmer now. Is there any hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I'm sorry this post is hilarious. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Julian, every forecast seems to be going warmer now. Is there any hope? I'm happy with how the Hudson Valley did with round 1, 4" is more than I expected from both events combined. School delays probably still afoot for the morning but I think another inch of frozen anything is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 don't you get the feeling that when even a small amount of energy is injected back into the system from that pulse below us things will really fire up again? I'm even less reliable as a source for forecasts than Blizz. I'll think storms in July have the potential, however remote, to deliver good snow to the highlands. That said I've felt all afternoon that this had over performer written all over it. At least for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 You can already start to see signs of round two appearing over Ohio entering Pennsylvania. The ECMWF was a bit overdone with the activity in southern PA, and I think the GFS actually has a better handle on what is happening currently, with precipitation blossoming further north away from the coastline mainly associated with CVA moving with the upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Why? It's like asking a blind man to help you read a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 You can already start to see signs of round two appearing over Ohio entering Pennsylvania. The ECMWF was a bit overdone with the activity in southern PA, and I think the GFS actually has a better handle on what is happening currently, with precipitation blossoming further north away from the coastline mainly associated with CVA moving with the upper level low. I hope it keeps filling in. Your a met, what do you think on any wetbulb cooling with r2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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