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Leap into the Dark Side - Feb 29/March 1 Obs/Discussion/Totals


HoarfrostHubb

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This winter has exquisitely found ways to screw Boston.....laughable at this point.

Drove back on the Pike from work in Marlborough and there's a fairly sizeable difference already in accumulation abilities there versus here. Inside of 128 things really went downhill in terms of snow and I'll be surprised if I get more than 4" at home tomorrow. Work probably a different story but hard to say right now, we're right on the fence being just northwest of 495/Pike.

Posted this accidentally in other thread:

When you step away from radar/keyboard and step outside, you appreciate how paltry this has been so far for Boston. I'm frankly not even sure KBOS has seen 0.5" yet.

Not looking for the toaster yet as tomorrow morning still looks good, but so far, this has been a Halloween redux for Boston: actually decent flakes, looks like it's snowing pretty good, but then you look down at the ground and it's bare. The BL is just killing us. And like Halloween, just 5-10 miles inland will look much much better. Coastal called this exactly right.

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I expect rain and sleet when I got back to wareham around 830.. we'll see. Messenger I'm surprised you're already seeing rain.. wondering if its your proximity to water torching the bl

It's more a function of just really crappy precip rates. The mild bl doesn't help but if its not steady/moderate precip the low levels won't respond. Steady/heavier precip brought the temp right down to 32F earlier

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It's more a function of just really crappy precip rates. The mild bl doesn't help but if its not steady/moderate precip the low levels won't respond. Steady/heavier precip brought the temp right down to 32F earlier

Yeah, it's diminished into a very narrow band of meaningful precip. Had that look in the models all day and last night..dying as it came east. I doubt we see anything here.

Posted this accidentally in other thread:

When you step away from radar/keyboard and step outside, you appreciate how paltry this has been so far for Boston. I'm frankly not even sure KBOS has seen 0.5" yet.

Not looking for the toaster yet as tomorrow morning still looks good, but so far, this has been a Halloween redux for Boston: actually decent flakes, looks like it's snowing pretty good, but then you look down at the ground and it's bare. The BL is just killing us. And like Halloween, just 5-10 miles inland will look much much better. Coastal called this exactly right.

Essentially a non event with phase 1 in extreme eastern MA.

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Posted this accidentally in other thread:

When you step away from radar/keyboard and step outside, you appreciate how paltry this has been so far for Boston. I'm frankly not even sure KBOS has seen 0.5" yet.

Not looking for the toaster yet as tomorrow morning still looks good, but so far, this has been a Halloween redux for Boston: actually decent flakes, looks like it's snowing pretty good, but then you look down at the ground and it's bare. The BL is just killing us. And like Halloween, just 5-10 miles inland will look much much better. Coastal called this exactly right.

Well I didn't really call anything. That was Progged right from the beginning. What you and I are hoping for is later tonight and tomorrow. Other than being in a screw hole on radar, it's going as planned. The question remains what happens later on. Hopefully the euro is right, but kind of sucked to see the gfs and nam do what they did.

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when those echoes south of ur reach the coast and the atmo up here begins to sniff it out, we will refire and light up again big time. heck....i wouldn't be at all discouraged yet. i was expecting basically nothing up here in the merrimack valley until after dark and i am now at 3". keep the faith.... this is coming and will still be snowing tomorrow at this time.

Radar down south makes me a little nervous with that convection basically moving east as far as I can tell - ie what forky linked to. However WV seems to be throwing moisture to the north, I'm definitely a little nervous but still hopeful http://www.ssd.noaa....us/loop-wv.html

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PEr Noyes:

in extreme Northern Massachusetts, Central and Southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and Southern Maine. In these areas, Thursday morning snow bursts may bring snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour! That snow combined with a gusty northeast wind very well may create near blizzard conditions for some morning travelers in Central New England, and is the reason we're forecasting higher snow totals in this swath.

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Well I didn't really call anything. That was Progged right from the beginning. What you and I are hoping for is later tonight and tomorrow. Other than being in a screw hole on radar, it's going as planned. The question remains what happens later on. Hopefully the euro is right, but kind of sucked to see the gfs and nam do what they did.

very true, good to keep that in perspective... maybe 1/4 of total qpf was in this pre-frontal band stuff, the majority qpf occurs tonight / tomorrow morning with the weakening upper level low / surface cyclogenesis

but still somewhat of an underperformance in boston even for this first part

for example, looking at SREFs plumes mean 15z:

1.95" should have fallen by 0z tonight (now)

5.77" by end of the storm

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PEr Noyes:

in extreme Northern Massachusetts, Central and Southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and Southern Maine. In these areas, Thursday morning snow bursts may bring snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour! That snow combined with a gusty northeast wind very well may create near blizzard conditions for some morning travelers in Central New England, and is the reason we're forecasting higher snow totals in this swath.

Sweet!

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PEr Noyes:

in extreme Northern Massachusetts, Central and Southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and Southern Maine. In these areas, Thursday morning snow bursts may bring snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour! That snow combined with a gusty northeast wind very well may create near blizzard conditions for some morning travelers in Central New England, and is the reason we're forecasting higher snow totals in this swath.

You oughtta slap that with an NC-17 label.

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Still think BOS is in for a solid 4-6", as well as an additional 4-6" in ORH, maybe more. I really don't think round 2 will be anything special for the MA/CT border on south...however I think northeastern RI may get into the action as the WAA hits a brick wall. Should be interesting.

Overall, round 1 went as planned for CT, average around inland CT was probably 3-3.5"...right on target.

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