ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm not talking about qpf..people need to stop focusing on qpf ..you need to focus on synoptics and temp profiles..look at model bias and errors..It all leads to the Euro being superior. If the setup is there it is going to add up..regardless of modelled qpf I think modeled qpf is fairly important within 24hrs of a storm. And a bias of the Euro is that its dry, and the NAM is usually overdone. And the setup is and has been there for this evening, but once the WAA slug moves through, the mid levels will really have at it. Look at DXR, already starting to occur there. Thats where you and the Mets here differ, you think round 2 is snow when there is some strong data that suggests other wise, especially south of the MA border. 4-6" for you I think. 20 miles north gets 8+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Much better snow growth with this band coming in...after we were in that sucker hole for a while. I'm in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Have monster sleet pellets all of the sudden lol, very very very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's the changes that it makes. Ridiculous. I do think it came back down to Earth at least, but it went in the other direction..lol. We'll have to see. The 19z RUC will sooth your soul...not Kevin's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'm in it now. Yeah it's actually melting a bit..lol. About 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Snow has al but stopped snowing here in Ayer MA, .5 on the ground...roads soaking wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The 19z RUC will sooth your soul...not Kevin's though. Yeah RUC has a rainy appeal TOL/HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The 19z RUC will sooth your soul...not Kevin's though. I know..lol. I sure hope that develops as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 still Mod/Heavy Snow here in Fall River. This will probably be the best part of the storm down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I really would not be all that swayed by the NAM. We are pretty much nowcasting anyways. We'll just watch how everything transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Interesting. 18z NAM keeps the trough more intact. It doesn't get sheared apart as much. Should produce more during the day Thursday for CNE and NNE with the upper level vort passing over SNE Neat how it insists on 1.25". We'll see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I know..lol. I sure hope that develops as modeled. Looks like we're maybe 20-30 minutes from prolonged fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I really would not be all that swayed by the NAM. We are pretty much nowcasting anyways. We'll just watch how everything transpires. I'd feel a little more worried about it if the Euro had looked ugly just a while ago....but since it came out with an awesome solution and the other models look good, I don't think worrying over a run of the NAM that slices some of the qpf overnight is something I would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Don't look now, but Box has a new map out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Even if you were worried about the NAM in BOS...it makes up for it tomorrow lol...its still a huge hit overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Finally a good band here. Not like 1/4 sm or anything, but decent. Should start to stick soon if it can pick up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 May not have a wintry appeal for CT after midnight tonight... but the GGEM and some of the GEFS members have a little somehting Sunday/Monday??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 still ripping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 26, snow. Nakedness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'd feel a little more worried about it if the Euro had looked ugly just a while ago....but since it came out with an awesome solution and the other models look good, I don't think worrying over a run of the NAM that slices some of the qpf overnight is something I would do. Violently agree to the point of shaking your Explorer while riding to the conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Don't look now, but Box has a new map out. already busted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Don't look now, but Box has a new map out. yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I was just thinking that already busted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 i wonder if i can pull of warning snows with the first batch alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I'd feel a little more worried about it if the Euro had looked ugly just a while ago....but since it came out with an awesome solution and the other models look good, I don't think worrying over a run of the NAM that slices some of the qpf overnight is something I would do. Yeah that's how I feel. I mean it is an 18z run so you hope it's not seeing something, but the NAM is kooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 We are mixing with pingers here now....if my updates are getting too much just let me know....I am bored on a 3 hour call... Ansonia CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Look at Gray's new map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 SE Vt looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 already busted lol And, the new warning ups the totals (actually what my zfp has had all day). LOCATIONS...EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 I think modeled qpf is fairly important within 24hrs of a storm. And a bias of the Euro is that its dry, and the NAM is usually overdone. And the setup is and has been there for this evening, but once the WAA slug moves through, the mid levels will really have at it. Look at DXR, already starting to occur there. Thats where you and the Mets here differ, you think round 2 is snow when there is some strong data that suggests other wise, especially south of the MA border. 4-6" for you I think. 20 miles north gets 8+" No I think I sleet for tonite and back to snow late late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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