WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 fixed p.s. thunder....lovely True, Mitch, true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Just so I don't instantly get label as a deluded super weenie...lol...no, I don't think we will see any accum snow out of this. I was just intrigued by the 18z gfs. I liked the look and if you want to get a widespread 2-4+ clipper event in the I95 corridor, it would need to do exactly what the gfs is showing. You have to admit, those mini clips I posted look pretty nice. Reality or fantasy? I'll go with the latter.....for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Just so I don't instantly get label as a deluded super weenie...lol...no, I don't think we will see any accum snow out of this. I was just intrigued by the 18z gfs. I liked the look and if you want to get a widespread 2-4+ clipper event in the I95 corridor, it would need to do exactly what the gfs is showing. You have to admit, those mini clips I posted look pretty nice. Reality or fantasy? I'll go with the latter.....for now.... I see it as something to watch, if only because it's what we do around here but to get serious, the surface low would have to be modeled by GFS/Euro combo to go through central VA and qpf would have to be >.25" it "might" trend that way, especially since it continues to look so dang healthy on the GFS, but it ain't there, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 10-15" looks like a lock up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The two best recent (relatively speaking) clippers that I know of for our area (as a whole) are March 99 and January 2002 (a surprise clipper that dropped 3-4" in the area ). I don't remember 99 at all, but here is the LWX map of it http://www.erh.noaa....nts/Mar9-99.GIF March '99 definitely wasn't a clipper (low started in California, not Canada), but yeah, Jan '03 was definitely an overperformer. Last real nice overperforming clipper we had was back in 12/07-- can still hope for a fluke I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I see it as something to watch, if only because it's what we do around here but to get serious, the surface low would have to be modeled by GFS/Euro combo to go through central VA and qpf would have to be >.25" it "might" trend that way, especially since it continues to look so dang healthy on the GFS, but it ain't there, that's for sure absolutely. Just something to watch. qpf for clippers is so darn tricky that I don't even worry about that part @ d4+. Once the vort is over land it will be better sampled by the models.....i love weenie phrases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 March '99 definitely wasn't a clipper (low started in California, not Canada), but yeah, Jan '03 was definitely an overperformer. Last real nice overperforming clipper we had was back in 12/07-- can still hope for a fluke I guess. Ah, whoops, thanks. Like I said I don't remember 99, but the LWX write up referred to it as a clipper, so that's what I always thought it was. And yeah, I meant 03, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 I guess another way of saying the "fluke" idea is that it is actually very difficult for a season to dodge less-than-ideal events left and right and end up with as little snow as we've had. (Third lowest is an extreme event) "Fluke" would describe a specific scenario, but looking at an entire season, it's still a better bet to say we'll have one more event....even if it ends up being a sloppy 1" snow behind a dynamic cold front that melts two hours later on March 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 With the tendency for these clippers to trend northward, NJ may be the place to be. HUSH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Well Super clipper not looking so super on 0z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Why did people buy into this thing? It's already gone. This winter is over and was over in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 GFS says if you want some lovin you better love yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 00z GFS is light snow down my way this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Just stay up for the euro. The clipper will be born again. If not just extrapolate the 6z nam. I'm still taking the over on 4 flakes falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Right where we want it. yep, another potential snow shoved right up the old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Right where we want it. non existant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Is it tropical season yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Why did people buy into this thing? It's already gone. This winter is over and was over in November. this airmass isn't even winter-like...feels like early april outside...hard to imagine getting snow in this type of a pattern, or at least a decent snow, which is what i'd rather have over these nickel and dime trace events. if we're only gonna get a trace then i'd rather just have spring arrive and call it a winter (or 6 months of fall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Is it tropical season yet? I can't wait for the hurricanes in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The good news for those hoping for a super clipper is that there is still a model showing a good strip of .25-.5 precip running just south of DC. The bad news is that the temps are probably to warm for anything but some mangled flakes. The even worse news is the fact that it's the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 The good news for those hoping for a super clipper is that there is still a model showing a good strip of .25-.5 precip running just south of DC. The bad news is that the temps are probably to warm for anything but some mangled flakes. The even worse news is the fact that it's the DGEX. Well that's not exactly true. I only took a quick glance at the GFS ens. members, but a few of those look OK. I won't be shocked if the models bring this back and start showing something interesting. I won't be shocked if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 This thing is dead just as our winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Is it tropical season yet? it ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Agree mitchnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Is it tropical season yet? 1938 Redux. It is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I want one more to chase. I think I can drag Ian again. Maybe a late march coastal that is rain in DC and heavy wet snow in elevation to the west. I don't really care if it snows in DC at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 1938 Redux. It is a lock You don't need any logical reasoning, because it's 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I want one more to chase. I think I can drag Ian again. Maybe a late march coastal that is rain in DC and heavy wet snow in elevation to the west. I don't really care if it snows in DC at this point. Good, because it isn't going to snow any more outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Good, because it isn't going to snow any more outside the mountains. I wish you would have told me this in November. It would have saved me 4 months of false hope. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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