mdsnowlover Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 lol- I'll take the over on snow actually falling out of the sky. That's as far as I'll go. Tasselmeyer just mentioned flurries on moday and much colder wbal 11 radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Tasselmeyer just mentioned flurries on moday and much colder wbal 11 radio. Sometimes flurries turn into 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Tasselmeyer just mentioned flurries on moday and much colder wbal 11 radio. Nice of him to be bold with his call, i hope this works out better than his last forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Sometimes flurries turn into 2-4 inches. maybe if this was 09-10. The theme this year is accum snow always turns into flurries......or less..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 by next Friday, there will be no snow along the east coast except in the mts, and only NE mts at that winter's over time to root for a NINO and dream of better days to come and even if the NINO doesn't do much for next winter, at least it will help with summer temps see ya at the 0Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Hmmm..... 18z gfs is kinda tasty. It would actually be accum snow. kind of a classic looking setup. surface low pops after the ul energy crosses the apps. thundersnow ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 Everytime we have a shatty winter...we get some march fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The good thing is we're now close enough to be in the nam's extrapolation wheelhouse @ 0z tonight. I'm going all freeking in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 18z wheelhouse a la the DGEX XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 see ya at the 0Z runs wrong.....made it back in time for the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Until the Euro has it no one should expect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Until the Euro has it no one should expect anything. The euro has a clipper. Just not nearly as nice as the gfs so we simply throw the euro out and ride the gfs for a full 8 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 no one should expect anything. This year, exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Until the Euro has it no one should expect anything. And when the Euro has had it this winter and the GFS does not the Euro has lost it so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The euro has a clipper. Just not nearly as nice as the gfs so we simply throw the euro out and ride the gfs for a full 8 seconds. Maybe it will over-perform and we'll get a few minutes of rain/snow mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 the euro has enough a signal to think it's meaningful. if it has a tendancy to miss a bit on something it's an event like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 the euro has enough a signal to think it's meaningful. if it has a tendancy to miss a bit on something it's an event like this. Going all in i like it. Let's call it Ian's balls to the wall storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 the euro has enough a signal to think it's meaningful. if it has a tendancy to miss a bit on something it's an event like this. I agree here. The euro does not hone in on clippers well at all until the lead time is shorter. I can't remember specific examples but it's best to follow the gfs with these types of events (at this range anyway). I know the 18z gfs can't be counted on but that is a pretty believable setup. Not believable in the sense that it's going to happen, believable in the sense of the evolution of the system is realistic. Plenty of systems in the past have evolved exactly like the gfs is showing. God bless it would be nice if the thing does pop a surface low east of the apps. That's one of the only ways to get decent accum snow with a clipper unless the vort is all jazzed up enough to survive the wall of denial to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 the euro has enough a signal to think it's meaningful. if it has a tendancy to miss a bit on something it's an event like this. That's encouraging. What is the top end for a clipper around here? I know they usually disappoint, but surely in the past there have been some that overperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 That's encouraging. What is the top end for a clipper around here? I know they usually disappoint, but surely in the past there have been some that overperformed. 3-5" would be the absolute best case scenario I think. Pretty much have to have a surface low pop east of the apps and that's what caught my eye with the latest gfs. IIRC- when you get a strong vort and a deepening surface low you can get into some really good rates on the nw side of the low. We would want the vort to pass over DT's house and the 850 low to form around ezf or so. Edit: I'm posting best case for mby. You're a good bit south and west of me so I'm not sure what it takes for your area to get good snows from a clipper. Probably something similar just a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 surely in the past there have been some that overperformed. The two best recent (relatively speaking) clippers that I know of for our area (as a whole) are March 99 and January 2002 (a surprise clipper that dropped 3-4" in the area ). I don't remember 99 at all, but here is the LWX map of it http://www.erh.noaa....nts/Mar9-99.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 3-5" would be the absolute best case scenario I think. Pretty much have to have a surface low pop east of the apps and that's what caught my eye with the latest gfs. IIRC- when you get a strong vort and a deepening surface low you can get into some really good rates on the nw side of the low. We would want the vort to pass over DT's house and the 850 low to form around ezf or so. Edit: I'm posting best case for mby. You're a good bit south and west of me so I'm not sure what it takes for your area to get good snows from a clipper. Probably something similar just a bit further south. this has got 3/8/84 written all over it p.s. I remember it well, actually, but just not certain it was the snow on the 8th of March, 1984 that was the clipper that blew up giving BWI 4"+ and PHL 8"+ because there were a few other snows that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 3-5" would be the absolute best case scenario I think. Pretty much have to have a surface low pop east of the apps and that's what caught my eye with the latest gfs. IIRC- when you get a strong vort and a deepening surface low you can get into some really good rates on the nw side of the low. We would want the vort to pass over DT's house and the 850 low to form around ezf or so. Edit: I'm posting best case for mby. You're a good bit south and west of me so I'm not sure what it takes for your area to get good snows from a clipper. Probably something similar just a bit further south. Actually Bob, I'm at almost the same lat as Baltimore, so I'm a little further north than you, but am a good bit west. Hopefully if any low does form, I'd be close enough to get in on some snow. I am ready for spring, but like the typical addict, I'd like to see one more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LOL Does anyone seriously think we are getting March clipper snows in this horrible winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Actually Bob, I'm at almost the same lat as Baltimore, so I'm a little further north than you, but am a good bit west. Hopefully if any low does form, I'd be close enough to get in on some snow. I am ready for spring, but like the typical addict, I'd like to see one more real snow. fixed p.s. thunder....lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 LOL Does anyone seriously think we are getting March clipper snows in this horrible winter? no, but since it is technically still February, it's something to do while ENE gets theirs today/tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 With the tendency for these clippers to trend northward, NJ may be the place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 With the tendency for these clippers to trend northward, NJ may be the place to be. I think it's more just a tendency for them to trend away from DCA/BWI in every direction recall how the last one went to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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